moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The Red Sox organization obviously feels they need to capitalize on their window of opportunity. Clear as day, and I'm more than fine with their evaluation of the situation. Making the playoffs 9 or 10 out of the next 10 seasons is very nice, but just show me the ring, baby! I like that better. I suffered through enough of the bridesmaid decades.
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Realistically, I think before the trades, we were set up to do just that- have a very good chance to make the playoffs for the next 10 years. We had ML ready prospects, mid level prospects and far away prospects plus a core of young studs and 2 vet aces- one for 4 years and one for 7 years.
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Good, then go for Smyly, because there's no way I give up Pom for O'Neill, and I'm all for rebuilding the farm.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Oh my!!!!!! -
His trade value if lower, but why would we want to trade him when his stock is low? I trust the Sox medical team checked out Pom's injury condition, when they decided not to nix the deal. The post-trade low performance was likely injury related, so to me those two are the same side of the coin. They traded for 2.5 years of Pom and have 2 years left. That's 20%, but it's also 1 out of 3 playoff cycles or 33%. I can see diminished value on that point, but not from Espi to O'Neill. Remember, I probably value Espi more than just about anyone else on this site, so there's that when weighing my opinion.
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Kind of avoided taking about the long term effects.
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Agreed. To me, my disgust over the Espi trade was never about Pomeranz. I like him and think he'll bounce back nicely.
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Another way to look at it (in hind sight) would be to take back the Pom trade and we'd still have Espi or Kopech (if the CWS took Espi instead or Kopech).
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I was thinking he was on his last year at $7.5M, but I was wrong. Nix my idea.
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You mean ERod not Kelly, I bet.
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I just posted this on another thread.... MLBTR Chat... Todd Frazier? 3:11 Where does he land? Jeffrey Todd 3:12 I feel like they ought to be plenty motivated to deal him... Giants could still make sense, or maybe even the Red Sox if they clear Buchholz salary? Maybe a 3 team deal? We send Buch and Abad to a contender. We send Owens and Elias to the CWS. The contender sends a prospect to the CWS. We get Frazier and free up luxury tax space.
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MLBTR Chat... Todd Frazier? 3:11 Where does he land? Jeffrey Todd 3:12 I feel like they ought to be plenty motivated to deal him... Giants could still make sense, or maybe even the Red Sox if they clear Buchholz salary? Maybe a 3 team deal? We send Buch and Abad to a contender. We send Owens and Elias to the CWS. The contender sends a prospect to the CWS. We get Frazier and free up luxury tax space.
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I hope they overpay for him.
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soxprospects.com has an interesting page on future rosters (assuming no additions). http://soxprospects.com/future.htm The have a disclaimer that says these are not roster projections, but they do offer a framework on where our weak spots may be. 2020: SP: Price, ERod, Groome, Wright, Owens, TBall RP: Smith, Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Martin, Shepherd, Cosart, Ysla C: Vaz-Swi 1B: Travis-Longhi 2B: Pedey 3B: Devers SS: Chatham-Hernandez LF: Beni-Castillo CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: Dalbec 2021: Wright is gone (move TBall & Owens up) Smith is gone and TBall is remarkably the 5th starter & closer Longhi is in LF as Beni slide to CF to take JBJ's place. Castillo replaces Betts in RF
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I think Rutledge and Hernandez are close enough that Hernandez will be in AAA, so Rutledge grabs the 25 spot.
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I am thankful. The Sale trade was like a dream come true. I realize it's going to affect our future, and that was the cost.
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ERod has nasty stuff. His upside is higher. He's just entering prime. Wright (my number 5 right now) pitched great the first half of last year and looked good in previous years. I like having a knuckleballer in the rotation, because it messes up the opponent's timing for the next guy starting. I did an extensive study on the pitcher who followed Wake and founf their ERA was much higher than their seasonal ERA not starting behind Wake. Pom & Buch in the pen helps our pen immensely. ERod in AAA does not. Buch hasn't pitched well for a full season in a long time, if anyone should have his innings restricted, it should be Buch. Pom has one half season of quality SP'ing under his belt. He's been a RP'er for a while.
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I agree, but they may move up to Travis status not Moncada, Kopech, Espi & Margot status.
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As I showed before, I'm not sure ERod's innings need to be "controlled". Maybe PoM, Wright and Buch's do. They've all had trouble pitching a lot of innings. If everything is equal, which to me would mean ERod would have to be doing worse in ST'ing to even him up with others, then yes, starting ERod in AAA has merit. To me, our pen still needs help, so I'm looking at which starters make better RP'ers. I'd place ERod last in that area. ERod is my 4th starter, unless something happens to convince me otherwise.
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If you look at just the stars or very promising players: 33: Pedey HanRam 32: 31: Price 30: 29: Kimbrel 28: Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, Thornburg 27: Bradley (Leon?) 26: Vaz 25: Swihart 24: Betts, Bogey, ERod 23: 22: Beni
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We have a pretty good core of AAA back-ups for non-pitchers: C (LF) Swihart (Romanski) 1B Travis (Craig) 2B, SS, 3B Hernandez (Marrero & Miller)) 3B Dominguez OF Lake & Brentz (Castillo/Craig) DH Witte
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Even with a broken ankle, he'd probably still beat Vaz & Leon in a race.
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What gets me is why some DH's get more negatives than others. It doesn't seem to be linked to PAs as a DH. Better look at just the batting or offensive category on fangraphs to judge DHs. Here's how Sox player ranked in the top 270 (30 teams x 9 players) MLBs in batting (300+ PAs): 1) Trout 58.3 2) Votto 48.4 3) Ortiz 47.0 14) Betts 30.8 33) Ramirez 20.0 42 Pedroia 17.2 58) Bradley 13.6 71) Bogaerts 11.6 When you factor in base running, here are the rankings for overall offense: 8 Betts 9 Ortiz 41 JBJ 44 HanRam 46 Bogey 63 Pedey Papi and Pedey decline, but the others move up a lot. Also, even with losing Ortiz, we will have 5 of the top 62 2016 batters in MLB. The norm should be about 2.
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Our oldest players on our 40 man roster are just 33! 33: Pedey & Young (HanRam on DEC 23) 32: Buch and Wright --It's Buch and Young's last contract year) 31: Price, Abad & Moreland 30: Pablo 29: Kimbrel, Kelly & Holt 28: Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, Thornburg, Ross, Leon, Rutledge, Hembree, Rutledge, Elias, Workman, Brentz 27: JBJ, Smith, Barnes, Scott & N Ramirez 26: Vaz, Johnson, Martin & Marrero 25: Swihart, Ysla 24: Betts, Bogey, ERod, Hernandez, Owens 22: Beni
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Certainly their TV contract plays a big role in their spending. I'm not sure they will be avoiding the luxury tax when the new rules kick in, but they will try to avoid the draft choice drop penalty, if possible. In 2018, they'll still be paying over $20M to other teams on players they traded. They lose some big contracts for 2019, but have some big shoes to fill as well (AGon). I'll believe it when I see it.
