moonslav59

Do you think there was ever talk of Swihart instead of Kopech?

I'd kind of like to throw Wright in the middle of the big three just to mess with the opponents timing, but we start with a 3 games series, so putting Wright up secon is a stretch. Maybe... 4/3 Pitt (Sale) 4/5 Pitt (Porcello) 4/6 Pitt (Price) 4/7 @Det (Erod) 4/8 @ Det (Wright) 4/9 @Det (Sale +1 days rest) after a wright outing 4/10 @Det (Porcello) We have another day off April 13th and 24th. that's 3 days off in the first 19 days. I think we start the season with 12 pitchers- maybe even 11.

I'm not sure trading is a big option. 1) We most likely won't have the great prospects to trade for meaningful pieces. 2) If we trade vets, it means we are losing and are getting ready for the next season by trading players with 2 months or a year left of team control. I think our best hopes rest with signing international players. These signings have carried us, and despite the new spending restrictions and penalties, I think this is the area we have shown the most skill and can be expected to continue to some extent. Here are our international signings: 14-15 & bonus Moncada $31.5M (C Sale) plus $31.5M tax Espinoza $1.8M (Pomeranz) C Acosta $1.5M R Castillo $5.4M (plus mega deal) 13-14 Devers $1.5M J Diaz $600K (Sale) Hinojosa $4M 12-13 Almonte $610K W Rijo $575K (A Hill) 11-12 Margot $800K (Kimbrel) T-W Lin $2M 10-11 Linares $750K J Aro (C. Smith) 09-10 Bogey $510K Iggy $6.25M (Peavy > Hembree) F Montas (Peavy>Hembree) J Vincio $1.95M 08-09 Tazawa $1.8M 07-08 Almanzar $1.5M 06-07 Dice-K Okajima 04-05 Doubront 2001 A Sanchez 2000 HanRam 1998 Jorge de la Rosa (Schilling) 1984 C Quintanna

It's just taking a practical look at the future. Seriously, I'm not feeling gloom and doom, just some serious choices will have to be made with close to zero room for error to keep us strong beyond 4 years. Our past record in late round draft choices, free agent signings and tighter international signings rules makes it difficult for me to believe we will be close to zero error free with our major choices over the next 3-4 years.

Well, decisions have to be made before 2020 (and before) as well, and with rising arb costs, replacing departing players will not leave much room for FAs or massive extension costs. I think we'll be okay after 2017: $29M $13.5M Buch (replace with Owens/Johnson) $7.5M Young (replace with Swihart) $5.5M Moreland (replace with Travis) $2.5M Abad (replace with Scott) Arb raises to some of these players could be very costly 3 of 3 Pom, Kelly & Ross 2 of 3 Bogey, Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge 2 of 4 JBJ & Leon 1st arb Betts, Smith, ERod, Wright, Swihart & Vaz We might have a little left over for a FA to fill a role. after 2018 (2019): We may lose Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly & Ross --not much money coming off the books, but we still have 5 SP'ers on the books, so maybe we can get by with in-house solutions, except for maybe a closer (Thornburg/Smith?). --Again, even bigger arb raises is going to way outpace what we save by letting Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly and Ross go. --Who will back fill the pen with no money to spend? If we decide to keep Kimbrel, like I said in my scenario below, then we're way over the luxury limit again. --We could start seeing serious issues as early as 2019, but I still see us as serious or highly competitive, even if we lose Kimbrel, Pom, Kelly $ Ross. After 2019: Huge decision time. Rebuild? Pay a huge tax? Keeps some-let others go? --Pablo off the books will help a lot, even with a $5M buyout (paid in luxury tax dollars prior to 2020). HanRam will hurt, but Devers should be helpful. Porcello & Bogey are going to be the key re-signs. --Huge arb raises --we could see some major roster changes for 2020, but I still think we could be major contenders. Lots of "what ifs".

Good one. Let's trade Chatham, Dalbec, Chavis & TBall for Quintana.

Let's say, for argument's sake, we keep all our top stars, except Hanram at the following costs (minimizing the gaps we might need filled by lesser ranked prospects): 2021 $33M Sale $33M Betts $31M Price $28M Porcello $24M JBJ $22M Bogaerts $16M Kimbrel $14.5M Thornburg $13.5M Pedey $13M C Smith______ $238M for 10 players. Let's say we do without Smith or Thornburg. We'll still be at $225M with 16 more players needed for the 25 man roster and 31 total for the 40 man roster. Unless we want to go even more over the luxry limit, we can't sign any more Youngs or Morelands or trade for guys making $5M or more. Maybe we trade Pedey or Bogey before they reach free agency and lessen the budget and build up the farm at the same time, but then that's another gap we are asking lower ranked prospects to fill without losing much production. No Pom, Young, Moreland, Kelly, Ross, Holt, Wright or Vaz (all FAs before 2012). So, with a mediocre far, we fill 16 gaps: Pablo> Devers HanRam > Travis Moreland> Dalbec Vaz > Swihart Pom> Groome Wright> Johnson Buch> Owens (I had so say it- get it? Buck Owens!) Thornburg or C Smith> Scott/TBall/Martin/Ysla/Workman (Move up guys like Barnes, Scott Maybe ... Bogey > Chatham JBJ> Castillo or a draft pick to come? I'm sorry to say it, and don't call me a doom & gloomer, it's reality. This doesn't look pretty in 2021.

I like the Moreland signing, but I'd have been very happy with hanram at 1B and EE at DH, if we could find a way to still reset the luxury tax for next winter.

It's too bad Swi got rushed into ML action and started his countdown to arbs and free agency. We still have 5 years of control, so there's time for him to develop into a decent defensive catcher and still get 3-4 years out of him. Maybe I'm being pessimistic on Swi, but I still see him ending up in LF or at 1B/3B someday in the next year or two. I know Sox management proclaimed he was going to be a catcher only in 2017, but I think they felt that way going into 2016 as well.

I doubt he'll be viewed as ML ready for 2017, so I left him off the list. He struggled out of the gate after his last promotion, but that doesn't mean he will at AA. There is a chance he jumps to AAA this year, and if he's doing very well, and we need a 3Bman, I guess there's a slight chance he could be 3B depth. Right now, we have Holt, Rutledge, and Hernandez behind Pablo. If we have to go deeper than that, I can see a scenario where Devers passes Dominguez on the depth charts.

Well, all teams are being judged on paper right now. The Cubs have added a couple of nice pen pieces. They should be even better, if that's possible, on paper (or by the numbers). All we can really hope for any given winter, is to improve our team. It looks like we did, by the numbers, but the games are played on the field. It should be a fun year, if the numbers match up with reality.

DH or bench. I'm against this trade, now that I realized Frazier is due a hefty arb raise.

People were saying (not necessarily the same people) that we shouldn't count on prospects, especially far away ones, and that it's better to trade them for proven vets, so we can win now. Now, some are saying we shouldn't worry about the extended future because we have prospects we can count on to fill the gaps. You don't see an inherent contradiction there? We couldn't count on blue chips, but now we can count on buffalo chips.

None of these guys will be DFA'd, so why not keep all our best pitchers on the 25 man roster. The real choice here may be Buch, Pom, Wright or ERod vs out-of-options pitchers like Abad, Hembree and Elias.

Agreed, thye only time options comes into the equation is if you have to trade or cut someone by keeping another good guy on the 25 man roster. Pom & Buch will help the pen. They're not going to AAA or another team, so this way we maximize our talent. (Actually, Buch may end up elsewhere.)

Q has one extra year, I believe, over Sale. In a perfect world, I'd have found a cheaper way to get a closer- either financially or without top prospects. So, nix the Kimbrel, Pom and Hill trades. Yes, I'd have paid more for Q over Sale, but from what I hear their demands for Q looked like less than for Sale. I'd have given Moncada, Espi or Kopech, Basabe & Diaz for Q. Maybe we could have traded Moncada, Espi, Kopech, Margot, Guerra, Basabe, Asuaje. Allen & Diaz for Sale & Q. (Basically trading Kimbrel & Pom for Q, but having more money to spend on maybe EE.)

I meant Sam Travis. You can't have it both ways. You can't say it's okay trading away blue chip prospects, because they may not have made a big splash anyways and now say it's okay because we have black chip prospects that could/should help us going forward.

This past years draft also looked very good to me. It did to me too, but two things: 1) We drafted 12th (Groome), 51st (Chatham), 88th (Anderson) and 118th (Dalbec). It probably won't be easy to have similar drafts going forward with picks like 25, 65, 100 and 130. 2) If we value Groome, Chatham and Dalbec so highly, then Espi should have been off-the-charts in value. It's like I was hearing all along, "It's not so bad, because hardly any of the guys we traded were going to make it big anyways." And, now I'm hearing, "It's not so bad, because we have recently drafted some good kids that will help us later on."

I think the Seth Smith rumors were from before the Moreland signing.

It will be something to look back on, if EE ends up signing for $15.5M x 2. Having EE over Moreland for $10M more would have been sick. I still think he'll get close to $60M/3.

Looking at the most recent 3 year sample size, here's how team rank in top SP'ers by... WAR BOS 4 Price 5 Sale 23 Porcello Cubs 6 Arrieta 7 Lester 29 Lackey CLE 2 Kluber 19 Carrasco 36 Salazar WSH 3 Scherzer 14 Strasburg 24 G Gonzalez SFG 9 Cueto 10 Bumgarner 27 Samardzja HOU 12 Keuchel 22 McHugh LAD 1 Kershaw

Not alone, of course not.It was the starting point of nearly emptying the farm. Before the Kimbrel trade was also before the Espi, Hill, Moncada and Shaw trades,

It's not happening. If there was any hope, we'd have waited on Moreland.

I heard the Guardians said they weren't interested.

Of course, but I can't imagine any team being better set up for a 10 year stretch of competitiveness than we were before the Kimbrel trade and assuming we still signed Price. Nothing is certain in MLB, even making the playoffs next year.