moonslav59

Out of 17 players with 100+ PAs, 9 have a higher OPS+ than Rafaela (one is Devers) and 6 have worse. Even if your focus is 90-95% on offense, which is questionable, there are others to pick on, more often.

Nobody is saying he is a plus on offense. And again, you focus on recent numbers by a cherry-picked date that only is chosen to aid your point. You call Wong and DHam blackholes, but they have good to great OPS since the same date you picked for Rafaela. Please explain why the criteria changes so easily? Rafaela is at .773 since May 27th. It's a larger sample size, but select chosen recency matters more for him than DHam, Wong, Lowe and others, apparently.

We have-- more games won by this date since 2021. I think we all agree the roster looks way better than the one he was handed. If you don't want to bow, then tip your hat.

When 1 is cancelled, we all are!

One interesting fact about this 2025 team is just how much the depth has carried us in many cases. We saw some failures, like Toro, after a nice start and DHam, until recently, as well as Newcomb and a few others on the staff, but have a look-see: Narvaez was the back-up catcher to start the season: he is 7th in catcher fWAR at 2.6! Toro did okay at 1B for a couple weeks, then was really bad- Lowe seems to have righted the ship. KC was the opening day 2Bman. Mayer looked okay, but then got hurt. DHam has been awful, until recently. Mayer did well, when Bregman got hurt. Our DH's have not taken up the slack left by the Devers trade. Our OF depth has been off the charts (Anthony, namely.) Houck was our #2, Crawford maybe the #5, Dobbins the #10 or so, and Sandoval was supposed to be our 4/5 by August. Gio missed some time. We've done okay with SP'er dpeth, but traded away Priester. Our pen depth has been sketchy, but even if you take away Chapman & Whitlock, the rest of the pen has a better ERS than our starters, as a whole.

It's hard to know if Rafaela will continue improving on his K rate and BB rate. If he stays as he is, it will be hard for him to improve on a .710 OPS- not impossible, but hard. Consider this: of the top 15 batters on the Sox by PAs, 12 have a higher K% than Rafaela's 19.2%, but him striking out is apparently killing the team. (8 players are nearly 5% higher or more.) He does blow most away in his low BB%: 4.6 Rafaela 4.9 Toro (DFA'd) 5.3 Story 5.7 Romy 6.2 DHam (Yoshida is 4.4 and #16 in PAs) Last year, the gap was a lot wider: 2.6 Rafaela 5.6 Romy 5.7 Wong 6.1 Grissom 6.4 Yoshida

Solving the middle infield problems and depth issues would go a long way towards reaching that worthy goal. Easing the OF logjam could also force the need to not take Rafaela out of te OF, because the options to replace him are worse than the choices at 2B or SS.

Nobody likes watching a player on their favorite team swing at balls 2 feet out of the zone. We all wish he could hit better. We have differing opinions on just how low a batter can be, before he becomes a net negative value to a team. Maybe that has to do with how much value you are willing to assign to defense and base running. If Rafaela falls far below the norm on batting, maybe he can become a net negative player. Right now, he is far from that, IMO and the opinion of bWAR and fWAR.

If Rafaela is a blackhole because of recency, then DHam and Wong are not. Our 1B position is no longer a Toro-fueled blackhole, either. Just pick one criteria and stick with it consistently.

Even if he stays at .710 and plays GG type defense, runs well and provides decent middle infield depth, something this team has needed for nearly a decade, he's a clear plus player. WAR agrees by a landslide.

I know his OPS has been falling, recently, but why not apply "recency" to DHam, Lowe and Wong. If that's the criteria, then they are not "black holes." His offense is not an asset. I'm just saying he's very near the league norm and above the league CF norm on O. If that's "defending him," then so be it. BTW, .720 to .740 is above the league norm, and I thought you projected worse than that back earlier in the season. It was only after he was reaching near .795 that you raised your projections to slightly above the league norm and still said he sucks on offense. Maybe this is just semantic: to you average sucks, and being great of defense apparently doesn't change his overall value enough to pull him out of the sucking category. He doesn't suck, even just looking at offense. He is .010 below the league average OPS. Maybe you will end up gloating over a .700 or sub .700 end of season mark. Maybe not. He's proven one thing: he's streaky. He also seems to hit better when not in the infield.

Brez deserves more than a bow.

He has improved, a lot. (See my post on 2023+2024 vs 2025.)

The thing is, we are not sure he'd be a better hitter, if he tried to change his approach.

So many players explod eor fall off a cliff after 600 PAs. Dalbec was over .800 at the 600 mark. Rafaela seemingly failed to improve on his disciple all the way through is rise in the minors. He got labelled for being a high K/ low BB player, and rightfully so. One thing I look at is how a player is trending and how old they are. Over his first 660 PAs (2023-2024) he had a bad K rate of 27.1%. Many batters were worse, including some on the Sox. His BB% was a near worst 2.9%, and his K:BB ratio was among the worst in MLB history. Those two seasons confirmed what many felt he'd be, going forward. Then, he turned 24. His 478 PAs in 2025 is a pretty large sample size, and he's has shown some very positive improvement in both of the areas of major concern. His K rate went down to 19.2%. That's an almost 30% improvement! More importantly, his BB rate went up to 4.6%. That's nearly a 60% increase! Nobody know if he will continue to improve, stay at his current levels or decline, but why assume he will do worse as he nears his prime? His BA did not suffer by getting more BBs. It's almost identical to '23-'24. His SLG improved, as many players do when reaching 24-26 years old. His OBP went from .275 to .291- still not good but a marked improvement. I just don't get why he is the chosen one to bitch about.

Lots of other close games, other than 1 run games. We've had some bad losses, too. 11-1 and 14-2 are our worst, I thi

It just makes the situation that much sadder. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember that BAL and PIT did not even sell out playoff games back in the 70's. There seems to be something about those cities not being lovers of the game.

The announcers said it appeared he did not know the ball went to the backstop.

Good example. How many times have you heard me saying we need to trade Duran or Abreu? How many times have I suggested trading Rafaela? This kid is a big plus value for our team. CF is a very difficult position in Fenway and also in other parks. He brings a ton of value on D and is a decent baserunner.

Does he make more outs than we'd like? Yes. Do those more out contribute to losses more than we'd like? Yes. Those should not be the only two questions that matter.

While offense is more important than defense, someone just below the norm on O but way above the norm on D can be a damn good overall player, as WAR demonstrates. Also, Rafaela is one good game away from being average or even slightly above average on offense, if you include baserunning.

Lots of other close games, other than 1 run games. We've had some bad losses, too. 11-1 and 14-2 are our worst, I think.

He's pitching like a #2 now, and was maybe a #3 earlier in the season. Before that he was a #4 or 5. I hope he keeps this up. He looks locked in and focused, every start, now.

Most of the contract length covers what would have been his pre-arb and arb years, and he will make more under this deal on the front end. Players should appreciate that, as they can live the high life 3-5 years earlier, and if they invest their early earning well, they can end up doing better than waiting it out. He should also realize his pay is influenced by injury risk.

I'm not wrong. You talk about Rafaela every game thread, like he's the reason we are losing, while the team is actually winning. We are 67-53 in games he starts. He's hitting .768 in high leverage situations, while the team is at .735 (the rest is worse.)