moonslav59

Yes, the Papi window closes soon, so he better get his s*** together real soon. He could pitch great next year, but the loss of Papi might cancel it out.

I can understand 5, if you believe 5 is more important than 3, but why 6? Just the 15-20 PAs disparity with every slot down would be reason enough not to drop a top 4 hitter to 6th. Now, if we had someone that was not a great (top 4 or 5 on the team) all around hitter, but he could get on base at over a .375 clip, then I can see the advantage of lengthening the line-up by batting that guy 1st or second (assuming he's not as slow as molasses). I like to set up the line-up to try and score in the first inning. OBP is very important for batters 1-2-3 to increase the odds the 4th hitter gets up. That's why I want my 3 hitter to have both OBP and power, hence the "best all around" philosophy. If the 4th hitter can not get a big hit, just getting on base helps the chances greatly, especially if you have a 5 hitter like Pedey, HanRam or JBJ instead of Houston's 5 slot hitter Gattis. I'm really hoping Beni or Moncada come on like Freddy Lynn and demand the lead off spot (by next year). That would create a wonderful problem on how to slot the 2 through 6 slots.... Beni/Moncada Bogey Betts JBJ Pedey Moncada/Beni HanRam/Young/Shaw Shaw/HanRam/Young/Swihart Leon/Vaz/Swi Imagine if Papi came back for one more, afterall he says his feet feel great now! 1) Moncada or Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) Ortiz / JBJ vs RHPs 5) JBJ/ Ortiz vs LHPs 6) Pedey 7) Beni/ Moncada/Shaw/Swihart 8) HanRam/Shaw/Swihart 9) Leon/Vaz/Swi

I think the Kimbrel move was big, because not only did we part with two top 90 prospects (Margot & Guerra) but also 2 others (Allen & Acosta), but almost as imprtant was that we are paying Kimbrel near top FA closer money as well. It's like we signed a FA and lost top prospects.

I'm hoping Price does not take as long as Beckett to "adjust".

Would that mean they all have their slumps at the same time too? Maybe it's better if we mix and match.

Hill at 3B? YUCK!

Stick around, notin. Your insights are greatly appreciated.

Who me? Nope. I was trying to show that sometimes great catcher defense, especially with the intangibles like calling a good game, working with the staff, pitch-framing, etc... takes time to fully develop. Leon seems to be our best defensive catcher right now. Vaz is probably our second best with Swihart having a long way to go, however, the intangible part of our young catchers' game is still not known. I love the fact that Leon switch hits, but like VTek, he seems to have big split disparities, so I'm not sure being a split hitter helps much. Look at Pablo last year. He did better when he didn't switch hit. Unlike many here, I'm extremely pleased with our current catcher situation and I'm ecstatic about our future outlook at catcher, whether Leon continues hitting over .700 or not.

Can we all agree that Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Papi are our best 4 hitters and should be in the top 4 slots? I get the love fest with Pedey batting second. His high OBP is very nice. I get the argument that the 5 slot is more important than the 3 slot, though I strongly disagree. Other than putting Papi 1 or 2, almost anything else is worthy of consideration. I like HanRam 5th vs LHPs and Pedey 5th vs RHPs. I like Pedey 6th vs LHPs and Shaw 6th vs RHPs.

I agree. Even if he pitches like Cy Young the next 2.5 years, we may still be better off, if he opts out. I get that point and concur. The massive downside is what happens if he sucks.

I was responding to the original post, not yours. I was one of the few posters here defending Buch and advising against DFA'ing him. I realize he has never had a great half season after starting the same season horribly, but he has been so up and down over his career, I wanted to leave the door open for the possibility of an "Up" streak. Since his "Up streaks" have been among the best in MLB over the last 45 years, I felt he was worth holding onto. (That was also why I thought taking the option was a "no-brainer" even if just to trade him for a good A-level prospect.) I do not think he's shown he's ready to start now, but if Pomeranz keeps walking 6 guys in 6 innings, he may not be as far away as I implied. I think ERod is on the right path, so I don't see who else Buch could squeeze out. Besides, we need a long man, so his role there may be equally as valuable.

...and VTek really did not become known for his defense/pitcher -handling until age 31 or 32.

Had we signed Scherzer and/or Lester instead of Pablo, HanRam and Masterson, we'd be way way better off, but it's still like playing the lottery. I think the idea at the time was that with so many pitchers coming available the next winter, we'd "solve" our hitting problems last winter and pitching problems this past winter. The theory was not unsound. The execution was (so far). If we DFA Pablo next winter or spring and relegate him to Castillo and Craig status, we can avoid luxury tax issues, but Henry is still left holding the money bag. The amount we will be paying those three will be way more than any tax might have been otherwise. The fact is, way too many big FA signings totally fail or disappoint the team to some extent. I wish I saved my research on big signings over the past 10-15 years. As I remember, only 2-3 where unqualified successes from the team standpoint. A few more were okay or not bad, but the vast majority were failures or gross failures. Here's the list of the highest paid players of all time. Some are not FA signings, and some were long ago signings that the money amount should be pro-rated to modern money. See for yourself how many have failed: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Price has to "pitch well" for this to happen. Therein lies the concern.

Wait and be amazed.

Clay has a long way to go to win a SP'er slot barring injury or implosion. No, 6 man rotation. We need Porcello and Wright every other day, but have to settle on every 5 days. 6 days would mean they miss a start or two by season end. Nope and double NOPE!

I think Zimmerman just went on the DL, so Price, Greinke and Zimm have all struggled or gotten hurt. Is Cueto, the one with the "poor mechanics", the only one doing totally well his first year as a signed FA?

You make a good point, but we've changed GMs twice, scouting directors and more over the years, so maybe we shouldn't give up on guys like Espi and Logan Allen just because past system pitchers have failed. We also seem to do better in trades than FA SP'er signings, but that was more under the old regimes (Pedro, Schill...)

I pointed this out at the singing, but apparently that clause was what Price demanded, and that's how we landed him.

we keep thinking these big FA signings will save us, and then we bang our heads on the wall when they fail. We blame the GM. We blame the manager. Look around. Just about none of these big deals ever work as hoped, but yet we think the next one will. Encarnacion will not sign for 3 years. He's the best FA on the market next to maybe Cespedes, so he's going long and large. I'm done with these false hopes. Let's stick with the kids and plug holes with mid-tier FAs like we did with Vic and Napoli[ a few years back. Low risk- low years- high money.

This happens far too often in the first or second years of these massive deals. Like Kimmi, I was against this deal but felt like if we were ever going to do another big contract, Price was about as "safe" as you could get on a SP'er due to his age, his recent success and his mechanics.

Thanks oldtimer. I good night's sleep helped too. I was just otally bummed out last night. Thanks.

Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post RHP Brandon McCarthy goes tonight. He's struggled his last two starts, so maybe tonight is the game Beni busts out. Well, Beni got it done against McCarthy. The rest of the team, not so much. I had hoped he'd smack his first HR, but he did do well anyway.

Well said, and he might be "A" reason we do make the playoffs.

I suggested Pedey hit 5th before the year began. He's not the runner he used to be, but my main reason was that I felt Bogey's power was slow in developing and that he'd make a better #2 guy than a #3. With Ortiz, Betts and JBJ all looking like better 3/4 guys, I didn't like Bogey there. HanRam's power issues, including his shockingly low double total, screams for a demotion in the line-up, especially vs RHPs. Papi's huge L-R splits over the last year and a half also indicate he should probably bat 3/4 vs RHP and 5/6 vs LHPs. I still like Bogey second, although his BA has sunk over the last month or two, he puts the ball in play more than Pedey and may hit into less DPs. I can see wanting Betts up third, but I want Betts, Ortiz and JBJ up in the first 4 slots for various reasons. That makes choosing someone difficult. I guess we could put Bogey there or Pedey. Maybe something like this would work: Bogey Betts JBJ Papi Pedey HanRam or vs LHPs Pedey Bogey Betts JBJ Hanram Ortiz It's not an easy choice made at any of our first 5 or 6 slots.