moonslav59

having a player who can play just about every position but catcher DOES have high value. I have never doubted that. Sometimes the value is never even reaalized as Holt just being on the bench meant JF could PH or sub with someone else knowing he had Holt "in case of emergency" later in the game. I get this. really, I do. My position has been this: with the loss of a DH only player like Papi, the need for a super sub is slightly diminished, although one could now argue that HRam is at least temporarily a DH only roster slot. The second point I have been making in recent months is that Holt is no longer the second or third best roster option at several positions like he was 2-3 years ago. At some positions, he might be, at best, the 4th or 5th best option. Even players listed just below him could be viewed as very close in value at that posittion. The one weak area of depth we have right now is OF, as Young is the only true OF depth we have. Moreland can play in a crunch, and Selsky and Brentz offer some protection, but Holt's depth there could be needed in the second half. To start the season, I had Holt ranked as such: 2B (probably his best position) Pedey Hernandez/Holt (tied) Rutledge/Marrero not far behind. 3B Pablo Hernandez/Rutledge Holt Marrero/Dominguez/Lin (close behind) SS Bogey Hernandez Marrero Holt Lin 1B HRam-Moreland Travis (Maybe Swihart someday) Holt OF Betts/JBJ/Beni Young Holt Selsky/Brentz Moreland Years ago, Holt was our best sub at 2B. 3b and maybe second best sub at SS and 1B. He even played quite a bit of OF. I just don't see him ranked as highly anywhere anymore.

Yeah, I'm sure his cost would be too high, but he is a big difference maker when healthy.

But with Moreland's decline and history of weak hitting vs LHPs, we may need Travis on the big squad, even if in a more limited role than his further development requires.

Leon had had a few good batting stretches in the minors. Lin has had no hint of good offense before this year. (Note: Lin has been in the system for 6 years with over 2000 PAs.) True, Leon's hot streaks were few and far between, but he did have several over his long minor league career (11 years in professional ball with over 3500 PAs). OPS 2009 .701 (195 PAs in A-) 2010 .680 (385 in A) 2012 .856 (231 in A, AA, AAA) (Note: Leon as a .720 career OPS in AAA in 498 PAs- higher than any other level) 2013-2014 Fall League: .938 (142 PAs) 2014 .692 in AAA (193) 2015 .676 in AAA (111) While leon's minor league numbers are nothing to brag about, he had better numbers than Lin. (Note: he was older than Lin at all levels.)

I like the late & close stat to show who has done the best when needed. Some prefer High Leverage. Some prefer the 2 out RISP stat. Here are the Sox numbers in recent years: 2017: Late & Close (almost exactly the same as 2016) (Team: .729) .954 Betts .838 Bogey .817 JBJ .816 HRam .801 Beni .762 Pedey .708 Moreland .697 Young .670 Leon .426 Vaz High Leverage (again, way better than 2016) (Team: .768) 1.102 Betts .957 Moreland .953 JBJ .930 Pedey .918 Bogey .764 Leon .612 Beni .571 HRam .348 Vaz 2 out RISP (some awesome numbers here) (Team: .806) 1.178 Leon 1.133 beni 1.052 Pedey 1.000 Bogey .996 Betts .971 Pablo .895 marrero .804 Vaz .748 JBJ .611 HRam .603 Moreland 2016 Late & Close (Team .730) .981 Vaz .903 Ortiz .820 Betts .804 Pedey .781 HRam .768 Bogey .749 Shaw .705 JBJ .695 Young .421 Leon .368 Holt High Leverage (Team .774) 1.024 Ortiz .979 Beni .969 Pedey .916 Shaw .896 Bogey .812 betts .782 HRam .629 JBJ 2 Outs RISP (team: .826) 1.264 Betts 1.046 Shaw 1.016 Ortiz .988 HRam .978 Beni .890 Young .834 JBJ .719 Pedey .655 Bogey .578 Holt 2015 (I guess this is all Ben's fault) Late & Close (.654 team) 1.311 JBJ .871 Bogey .825 Betts .759 Ortiz (Ben must have told Papi to slump here) High Leverage (.686 team) .988 JBJ .928 Bogey .832 Betts .767 Ortiz .623 Pedey 2 outs RISP (.788 team) 1.317 Castillo 1.289 JBJ 1.027 Bogey .900 Holt .894 Ortiz .804 Betts .780 Pedey .628 Pablo .572 HRam

Okay, this hints at any other position in the top 5--not all positions as you stated earlier.

Not me. His splits vs LHPs was frightening. His WAR was largely fueled by his defense that would be minimized in Fenway Park. (Nobody expected his defense to suddenly suck, however.) He was not better than our current lead off hitter at the time. He was not better than our #3 hitter at the time. He was a platoon hitter with no clear role on the team. I didn't expect an implosion of that magnitude, but at that kind of money, a big positive impact should be expected, at least for the first 2-4 years of the 7 year deal. I never expected high impact.

32 PAss is a tiny sample size, but Lin was hitting at an .870 clip in Portland in over 180 PAs. .580 in 2016 AA (411 PAs) .525 Fall League (54 PAs) .635 in 2015 AA & A+ (501 PAs) .611 in 2014 A (467) .607 in 2013 A- (261) .659 in 2012 Rk (130) It does look like an outlier year for sure. The guy was a very weak hitter beforehand

NO, my conclusion is I was thrilled he retired. I heard something about his family. Maybe his wife or child was sick or they just wanted to be together more. Once you're a multi-millionaire, priorities can chance for some. Not every rich guy only thinks of how to get even more richer.

Think we still need a big slugger or top bat? Here are the top wRC+ batters with 200+ PAs this year on possible non contending teams: 208 Trout LAA 166 Votto CIN 162 A Avila DET 156 Goldschmidt AZ 150 Y Alonso OAK 150 Conforto NYM 150 Smoak TOR 147 Gennett CIN 147 Posey SFG 146 Ozuna MIA 142 Cozart CIN 140 N Cruz SEA 138 E Thames MIL 138 J Bour MIA 138 M sano MN 137 L Duda NYM 135 T Flowers ATL Note: our top wRC+ hitters are: 122 JBJ 119 Betts 112 Beni 111 Bogey 110 Moreland 104 HRam 100 Pedey

best 3bmen by WAR in 2017 on probable/possible non contending teams: 2.3 Gyorko STL 2.3 Harrison Pitt 22. Sano MN 2.1 J LAmb AZ 1.7 J Gallo TX 1.6 E Saurez CIN 1.5 M Machado BAL 1.2 T Frazier CWS 1.1 Y Escobar LAA 1.0 E NUnez SFG 0.9 D Freese Pitt

McCutchen's AVV is about $8.5M. His 2018 option is $14.5M, but I think it only counts as $13.5, since the buyout of $1M counted against earlier contract years. Harrison's AVV is just under $7M and he's under control through 2018. He also has 2 option years remaining that may up his value: 2019 at $10.5M and 2020 at $11.5M. If we trade at the deadline, we are only on the hook for about 1/3 of their contract this year. That means McCutch would count as about $3M and Harrison as about $2.5M. I'm pretty sure we could get both and stay under for this year. We could also trade away Abad or some other contract to make sure we stay under. My problem with McCucth is that we'd have no place to play him. Harrison, yes- McCutch no. David Freese could also be a lower cost option.

Like clutch hitting, this stat is not something that is easily sustainable. Probably your best hitter will, over the long run, hit best with 2 outs and men on. To me, hitting with men on and noe or one out is very important, too, if fact, it probably leads to more big innings than getting a hit with men on and 2 outs.

...tell me the ball is not juiced!

I'm glad we won't need our 5th starter come playoff time.

I realize it is virtually impossible to avoid situations where injuries and unexpected cliff dives force a move to find a #5 at a much lower cost than a desperation move for a #1, 2 or 3, but my philosophy is to try and avoid them as much as possible. I'm sure most GMs and fans would agree that having to get a number 5 is not something anyone wants to do. Take this year's Sox as an example. We had 6 good to great starters on opening day. It's hard to blame DD for not getting a 7th good starter (non 4/5 slot type) due to cost it would have taken to acquire one that good. I don't "blame" DD for lack of foresight in us having to use Fister, Kendrick, Velazquez. The Masterson, Dempster, Penny-Smoltz type signings are different. These guys were signed to start 20-33 times as 5th starters.

Imagine if the Yanks had gotten CC AND JE! I'd have been thrilled--and not just in hindsight.

I said the #3 hitter comes up to bat with 2 outs and 0 men on more than any other position. That's a fact. I've read the 3 slot comes up in these situations "a lot", but I can't find any source that sayd "more than any other position". Also, why is 2 outs such an important qualifier. I see why it is important, but it's not the only stat that matters for the 3 slot vs the 4 or 5 slot. The 3 slot gets more PAs than the 4 and 5 slot, and my guess is, they may come up with more men on base with any out total than 4 or 5. Plus, a high OBP from your 3 slot helps your 4 and 5 guys get more chances for RBIs than putting a lower OBP up 3rd. That has to be part of the equation as well. I'm not doubting the data, Kimmi, but I think the 1 or 9 slot probably comes up more often with non-RBI situations than the 3 slot. There are more innings than just the first. There are also times in the first inning that the #3 guy comes up with none on and 2 outs, and he gets on base. The number 4 guy Hrs or DBLs him in or gets on for the 5th hitter to get an RBI chance.

I'm glad the Royals staying in the playoff hunt might prevent DD from doing something not too far-sighted (again).

I realize Holt's unfortunate injury has a lot to do with it, but his stock sure has fallen among many fans that used to cringe at the mere suggestion of trading him away.

Didn't he say he did it for his family?

A brief history of our #4/5 slot acquisitions: (Note: sometimes acquiring #5/6 types is essential to building rotation depth at a low budget cost, and I included #6 types in my list, but my main focus is on those we acquired as a number 4 or 5. Ones that were expected to give us 15-20 starts, at least.) Fister 0-2 6.14 Velazquez 1-1 5.27 Kendrick 0-2 12.96 O'Sullivan 2-0 6.75 R Elias 0-1 12.91 Pomeranz 11-9 4.07 (Could have been viewed as a #3/4 type) Joe Kelly 4-0 5.18 (as a starter in 2016) Masterson 4-2 5.61 Rich Hill 2-1 1.55 Wade Miley 11-11 4.46 (Maybe expected to be our #3/4 type) Jake Peavy 1-9 4.72 (2014) Doubront 2-4 6.07 (2014) Webster 5-3 5.03 de la Rosa 4-8 4.43 Joe Kelly 10-6 4.82 (as a starter in 2015) Dempster 8-9 4.57 Doubront 11-6 4.32 Peavy 4-1 4.04 (2013) Webster 1-2 8.60 Doubront 11-10 4.86 (2012) A Cook 4-11 5.65 (D Bard and F Morales used as starters in 2012) A Miller 6-3 5.54 (primarily as a SP'er in 2011) E Bedard 1-2 4.03 K Weiland 0-3 7.66 (2011--Not an acquisition) B Penny 7-8 5.61 J Smoltz 2-5 8.33 (Hated these two signings) P Byrd 1-3 5.82 (2009) P Byrd 4-2 4.78 (2008) B Colon 4-2 3.92 This is a pretty complete list of the last 10 years. A few worked out well, a few worked out okay or "as expected", but many many more totally flamed out.

I get the attitude thing, but I don't recall anyone not being happy that he retired instead of forcing the Sox to may his second year. He wasn't a bad #5. He actually did fine as a #5. He had the chance to pitch like a #4 or maybe even a #3, but I didn't think he was going to get better as he aged and moved from the NL central to the AL east.

CC is from the Houston area. He always had a legendary workout regime year round. He was in tremendous shape- all the time. This, however, has nothing to do with hitting lefties. Sadly, he also lost his ability to hit righties quickly while with us. His OBP was never consistently high enough to be viewed as a lead off hitter for a big hitting team like the Sox. His power was never good enough to bat 3rd either. I remember many who disliked the trade did so because they felt signing CC meant we'd lose Elsbury to free agency later. That didn't concern me, because I was never for re-signing JE at anywhere neaar what he was expected to make.

6 in a row and 8 out of 9 before tonight. Now, we play 12 against division foes. It's time to put some space between us and our rivals. 4 @ TBR (All Star Break) 4 vs NYY 4 vs TOR followed by a 6 game west coast swing. Don't let up! Kick some butt!