moonslav59

We've come a long way from 2 straight last place finishes-- the Price signing, the Kimbrel trade and the Smith and Young acquisitions. This, a year after the two mega signings of HanRam and Pablo. We'll have some money to throw around this winter, but with the legend's shoes to fill and some serious bullpen rebuilding needed, it's going to be interesting to see how our resources are spent (or kept).

Pretty obvious. I just hope it doesn't get out of hand, and if does, we better win!

I didn't like the idea of a Hamels trade due to his near FA contractual cost. It just didn't make sense to me to trade many quality prospects for someone getting paid what he was owed. Why not just kick in $10M more and sign Scherzer? Surely $10M a year is worth less than Swihart and whatever they wanted. I was kind of surprised at how little Philly ended up getting, and it did make we wonder what was the minimum they'd have taken from us. Hamels has also pitched better than I expected post-trade. It's too late now, but would the White Sox have taken Espi, Swi and Devers for Quinatan or Sale? Would they have taken Espi, Guerra, Devers and Swi? Rumor was the CWs wanted JBJ. I wonder if they'd have taken an injured swi and JBJ for Sale. We'll probably will never know what the best offer might be for Swi, Devers, Johnson and Owens or Swi, Devers and ERod. Chances are, it wouldn't be enough for me to say yes, but I'm still curious.

I've never been afraid of trading prospects, as long as the deal is for a high quality player (usually a starting pitcher) and the player is under team control for several years at a reasonable cost. I did not like the Kimbrel trade due to Kimbrell's contract, his being a RP'er not a SP'er and the large bundle of prospects involved. The Pomeranz deal at least got us a SP'er, at a lower cost, and who is under team control for 2.3 years. I did not like the deal, because I think Espi is going to be incredible. I know it's just speculative value, but never the less, it's value. The Hill and Ziegler deals didn't cost any major prospects, but the accumulation of all that we've dealt away has gotten close to the critical mass tipping point. I do think our farm and future roster outlook could handle losing Devers (thanks to Moncada at 3B) and Swihart (with Leon's emergence and Vaz still in the fold) plus a couple fringe pieces, but we'd be right at the cusp of making a major sacrifice for the here and now. Keeping Moncada, Beni, Betts, Bogey and JBJ does not mean we'll need nothing elseg oing forward. Having low cost young players that produce well is what makes signing key FAs to fill major holes a winnable strategy. To me, the Pomeranz trade makes it hard to look for an ace this winter. Think of the level of pitcher we could have gotten with Espi, Swi and Devers vs just Devers and Swi. Any team looking to rebuild is not going to want Pomeranz more than Espi. I suppose the presence of Pomernaz could make trading ERod in the above package more palatable, but that would mean we traded our two best young pitchers (Espi & ERod) instead of just one. I'm still very excited about our future, but I am concerned about how far DD will go to "win now".

I'm not one to doubt the scouts, and he certainly could struggle a lot vs LHPs, but I'm just not sure if a "black hole" is a proper projection. I have said from the start, that he may only end up being used as a PR'er, PH'er vs RHPs and maybe a couple looks in the field in certain situations. Even a platoon might be pushing it, but if Shaw/Hill keeps struggling, then who knows...

I'm not sure how Swihart's injury affects his trade stock, but if he's not traded this winter, he'll have a shot at earning the catching job or back-up role. Vazquez still has weaknesses and Leon is still not a sure bet. If Swihart plays well, shows he's healthy and improves his defense, he should have a legitimate shot at a meaningful catcher role in 2017. That's three "ifs", but none are unreasonable. I guess if HanRam moves to DH next year, Swihart could try to win the 1B job. I think Beni and Young have LF covered pretty well. I really value Swihart a lot, and I have caught a lot of flack for saying since last year that we should look to trade him as part of a larger package for a very special pitcher.

A++

Well said. I just can't see Swihart beating out Vaz as the back-up catcher for Leon.

Even with the .609 OPS over the last 28 days, JBJ still managed 11 RBIs, which places him 6th on the team in that time period. It's not great, but it's also not "black hole".

I'm not saying he's not better vs LHPs, but the AA sample size is 35 ABs and his OPS is still .710. I agreed, he'd be better used vs RHPs and as a PR'er (on another post).

Moncada has not seen MLB pitching. Who is to say he will hit like Benintendi? What if he comes up and hits more like Castillo? That would be great! Castillo was called up late in 2014 and had a .928 OPS.

While I do think Moncada might be a better choice vs RHPs than some current Sox players, I'm not sure I'd call him a "black hole" vs LHPs. The sample sizes are puny. Even the puny sample sizes do not indicate a black hole description. Year ... vs RHPs/vs LHPs 2016 AA 1.003/.710 (133/35 ABs) 2016 A+ .971/.797 (165/63 ABs) 2015 A .753/.951 (206/100 ABs) Moncada has only had about 200 ABs vs LHPs. I figure his overall farm OPS vs lefties is about .850. Even if you take his .710 low, I'm not sure that's a "black hole". There has been some wide differentials, but that's more out of how great he's been vs RHPs this year than being bad vs lefties.

I'd have both on my September roster, since we're paying Hill anyway. He is a decent fielder that could replace Moncada for defense late in a game, or if you PR Moncada, Hill could come in defensively.

I thought limitless meant without limits. I have never claimed it is the only way. My position has been that the Sox history since Henry took over has been to stay at or just under the luxury limit. This past year was the first time we went over by a lot. The second year means the tax rate goes up to 50% (I believe). I'm not saying Henry won't okay going over, and he might even okay going over by a lot, but if he does, it will be something new. You used the words not going to be "changing their stripes" to imply the Sox have always been free spenders and their strong needs outweigh any budget limit. We had serious needs in the area of pitching after trading Lester, lackey and others, but the wallet was kept closed as Scherzer and Lester signed elsewhere. To me, signing Price and going over the luxury limit by a lot was "changing the stripes". Maybe it's a sign of what is to come. Lord knows Henry has enough to buy every FA he wants. I get the fact that we might be way over next year too at a 50% rate, even if we DFA Pablo and pay him "off the books" luxury tax speaking- like Castillo and Craig. I just don't see it as a never-ending stream. Our history showed we got very cautious after Crawford. The HanRam, Pablo and Castillo signings have all gone sour. I'm just not sure management will evaliuate the mistakes they made and then try to fix the mistakes by again trying to hit the lottery with EE. There's only so many times you can go wrong, before you eventually decide to change your methodology. Theo spoke at length about the lessons learned in Boston with free agency. He's gone and spent big with the Cubs, but he also built up the farm and hasn't traded away too much of it. DD is getting close to trading away too much, if he makes the blockbuster it will take to get a young, cheap ace like Quintana or Sale. Then, he'll box us into a corner with a massive contract for EE as he pays Pablo to eat hot dogs. I hope this isn't our new direction. We may win in 2017 with this plan, but I'm not counting on big spending days forever, and with a depleted farm (assuming we make the deal), where's our future talent coming from?

He'd have been signed to about as long as Price was, so to me, if our budget was truly "limitless", we'd have signed both Lester and Scherzer and then Price the next year.

According to fangraphs, JBJ is the 12th best runner in MLB. That helps hide some of his deficiencies as well. I could care less about Ks, as long as you get on base and/or swat HRs. JBJ does both well.

I was one of those people, but I never claimed the Sox would do it- only that they should.

If it was limitless, we'd have signed Lester or Scherzer.

We have consistently stayed very close to the luxury tax limit for many years. They've never gone way over the luxury tax, especially when the rate is going to be at 50% this year. Doing so would be "changing their stripes". Money does matter to this team. If we were able to trade for Sale or Quintana, the contractual hit would actually be small. Both are very reasonably priced, and what's better is their luxury tax number is way lower than their actual salary, so yes, we could sign EE and trade for Sale, but that would get us right at the luxury tax, and everything we spend on 2-3 quality RP'ers would be taxed at 50% (maybe $24M + $12M tax?) I guess it's "doable", but I seriously doubt we sign EE, trade for an ace and sign 2-3 top quality RP'ers. Our budget will be shot, and our future might be extremely compromised.

We ate Pablo's large contract this spring and made Shaw our starting 3B. I'm not sure why you continue to bring up his contract value to the table. DD has told JF play your best players. What has Pablo done to make any of you think he's any different now? I've said over and over I personally would not count on any further production from Pablo. My guess is Sox management is not going to plan on any contribution from him either. However, they are not going to write him off or DFA before having another look or two. Even when he was bad, he was decent vs RHPs. It was just so god-awful horrible vs lefties. It's not a stretch to think he could eventually have some value as a DH vs LHPs. Many Sox fans viewed HanRam the same as they view Pablo, but he has shown he can add some value. To me, he is slipping. I'd try hard to trade him and said I'd trade him even if he hit .900 this year. That being said, I'm not sure how much salary relief we'd get, so I'm not sure it's worth it. I think he still has value vs LHPs. That's an awfully expensive platoon for someone who only would start against lefties, and he'd probably pout or demand a trade, if we ever tried to platoon him with Pablo at DH, but maybe if he played some 1B vs RHPs, it could work. I hate the idea of playing Pablo and HanRam next year- even as platoons, and even if they both were okay with the idea, but the fact is we have a restricted budget. We went over the luxury limit this year, so going over next year increases the tax rate, I think to 50%. Add to that the "off-the-books" cost of Castillo and Craig, and our need to spend on 2-3 quality RP'ers this winter, and some tough choices might have to be made. Yes, we "ate" Pablo's contract, but it didn't go away. It still has ramifications with our budget. The contract is still on the "table". It's not going away. The way I look at DH spot is that we have Ortiz' 15/16M to start with. Most likely we will not need a SP or if we do make a trade for one, just eliminating Clay Buchholtz option dollars should cover the acquisition cost for cost controlled young SP. Even if the luxury tax limit goes up to $210M, we'll have about $30M to spend. That's not enough to sign 2-3 quality RP'ers and Encarnacion without going seriously over the luxury limit, and that doesn't even address our rotation and added depth. I'm not really willing to pay Encarnacion north of $20M per year. That's an overpay for a DH. But $20M to me is doable. What will it take to get him? My guess is $23M x 4 or 5 years. Some desperate GM might go $25M x 5 or $22M x 6, even though he'll be 34 next year. Relief pitching...say we need 3. We could pass on Clay B and save $13M. Koji and Tazawa combine for about 12-13M. So in theory, that's $25M possibly available for relievers. Other pay increase surely can be covered by increase in luxury tax limit, no? see above. We'll have about $30M to spend to get even with the luxury tax limit.

You a teacher?

That was my main point: nobody knows. However, it is my opinion that Sox management had in place a plan to bring Vazquez up as the FT catcher, as soon as they felt he was "ready". I put the word ready in quotes, because there are various degrees of being ready. Maybe they felt he was physically ready and defensively ready and felt they could weather an offensive adjustment period. The fact is, Vaz was playing FT at AAA before being called up. I don't think the two bad defensive games by Swihart told management anything they didn't already know, and that was why I feel the plan was always to bring Vaz up as soon as he was deemed ready. Of course teams change timetables and decision-making based on "urgency". The trading for Mirabelli was one example. I just don't see Swiharts defensive troubles early on caused a panic, but it might have made a difference in the timetable. My point was that I do not think Sox management would willingly call Vaz up before they felt he was ready. They saw him playing on the farm and made the choice. I don't think they expected him to hit the ground running with a .700 OPS, but his sub .600 OPS began to force the need for another change. Not going back to Swihart as a catcher at all, once he came back, does show how Sox management felt about his defense, so who knows, maybe it was more about getting Swihart out of there than thinking Vaz was totally ready. I guess they felt he was "ready enough".

Don't forget JBJ. He's a tremendous athlete. His baserunning often gets overlooked. Here's how fangraphs ranks our best runners: 5th Betts 12th JBJ 13th Bogey Pretty amazing. 30 teams, 150+ players, and we have 3 in the top 13.

Obviously Sox management is will to take enormous financial risks. The Price signing settled that debate as well as the "going long term with over 29 pitchers" debate. You never want past failures to totally paralyze you, but lessons should be learned none the less. The Pablo, HanRam, Castillo & CC contracts have really hurt us, and I can certainly see how one could argue that solving their problems by going long and large on Encarnacion risks just repeating history over and over and not learning from it, but of course every situation is unique. I just think signing a 34 year old pretty much DH only player to at least 4 years is really taking a major gamble. EE has been amazingly consistent at hitting over .900, but it is very rare for someone to not seriously decline after age 33-34. While I'd love to have him on the Sox, the cost and length of term will both be too much for me to stomach. Couple that with the fact that signing him will squeeze out playing time from some pretty decent and/or high-priced players makes the idea even less appealing. I do think the Pomeranz trade has lessened the need for a front line pitcher, but I'd still prefer to go that route than trying to stay afloat at DH for the next 4+ years. I thinik spending large on the pen will be priority number one, and that may take up a big chunk of the $30M we'll have to spend without going over the luxury tax. Even if we get someone to eat $15M of HanRam's $22M and $6M of Pablo's $19M, which is probably unlikely, we'll be paying $20M for nothing. I'm not saying a HanRam-Pablo platoon will do as well as EE, but is it really worth paying $20M to make both go away plus the $28M or so EE will want? Is the differential worth that cost? We also have Shaw, Moncada, Young, Travis, Hernandez and possibly Swihart in the 3B/1B/DH mix next spring. I just don't see it worth happening.

Nobody is posting anymore. What's up with that?