moonslav59

There's also a very important aspect involved with trading for a top SP'er under team control for 4+ years: does the other GM highly value the players we send them. He may value them more than we do. He may want one player over another that seems surprising to us. He may view an offer like Pomeranz, Swihart and Devers as getting two solid plus starters for 2017 and three solid plus starters for 2018 and beyond. We may view them all as questionable or highly questionable, but the GM might like them more than we do. (I know that's not very likely as we are prone to over-value our own prospects, but these guys have been ranked highly by national, unbiased services.) The offer might also be something like JBJ, Swihart, Devers and Johnson. Then, we sign Beltran for LF/DH. We'd have an extra SP'er or two to deal for pen help (like Miley for CSmith) or to just put in the pen (Buch & Pom?).

Someone better than the one we trade. It depends on who we trade. If it's ERod, Swihart and Devers, I'd expect Quintana or Sale. If it's Buchholz, I'd expect much less than Quintana but much more reliable than Buch. I can't think of anyone, so that's why I said "in theory". It might just be that and not reality.

Maybe Leon gets traded as his stock is high.

I'd love to know how he would catch 40% of the games as one of 3 catchers on the roster. Here's the rub with our catcher situation: Vazquez and Leon are plus defenders but have serious offensive concerns. Swihart is the worst defender of the three but is probably going to be a steady bat- perhaps a nice plus. If Leon starts 3 of 5 games and Vaz and Swihart one each, that's 20% for Swihart. Now, we pinch hit for Leon or Vaz (maybe in the 4th or 5th inning) and Swihart plays the rest of the game as catcher. Or, we PH for Leon, put in Vaz, and then later PH Swihart for Vaz and he finishes the game catching. These instances make up the other 20% of the innings and brings Swi to about 40%. If Leon sucks at the plate, maybe Swihart starts 2 of 5 games and gets his 40% that way. Maybe it's a combination of both. I agree, he may not get 30% in LF, but you are assuming no OF injuries. Last year Young and Beni lost some time. When Betts and JBj rest, Beni will likely play CF. If you rest Betts vs RHPs (as we should), then Young should not play LF- Swihart could. If Swihart didn't get hurt last year, he may have played 30% there. We tried to get Beltran to play LF at the deadline. LF is not as sure a bet as many think it is. Swihart may also be given some reps at 1B or 3B or both. My point is there are plenty of ways he can get PAs other than at DH, but I do think he'll get some there, unless we sign a big bat.

One theory might be to trade an existing starter with someone like Swihart and/or Devers for someone better or more reliable.

Even when we had Papi, we only spent $10-16M a year near the end.... not much in today's world.

I don't feel like we'd be "making him a DH". We'd be temporarily be using him there part-time, (if or) until he wins a position FT.

Could anybody see this as a realistic scenario, assuming Swihart is healthy day one? 1) Swihart learns to play some 1B this spring. 2) At some point in 2017, we go with 3 catchers, but Sihart is more of a utility player. 3) Swihart plays 60-80% of the games, and his games are divided like this: 40% Catcher, 30% DH, 20% LF and 20% 1B 4) That means Swi might catch 40-60 games but might play late inning catcher as the other catcher is PH for. (We could even PH for our 1 & 2 catchers twice in one game) 5) With Swihart as a utility player than can play LF, Young on the roster and 3 OF'er who can play CF, the need for a 5th OF'er is not there. 6) This leaves 3 slots open at 3B and 2 utility spots for Shaw, Pablo, Holt and Hernandez. Of course, parking Vaz in AAA to get more playing time makes sense too, but if we can find Swihart playing time at 1B, LF and DH, maybe we can still get Vaz enough reps to make staying at the ML level worthwhile. Of course, much of this depends on how Leon is looking.

This thread has really gotten off the subject of pitching.

Why? Because maybe he's the best hitter we have for that role. No way am I saying Swi should be our long term DH, and if we use Young at DH vs LHPs, maybe Swihart could DH vs some RHPs and catch some other days. It's not ideal, but I think we should put our best players into the line-up, even if it retards their growth on defense at a given position for a few weeks or months.

I don't want to trade Beni either. However, I'm open to listen to any offer. I'd also avoid Cespedes.

I totally agree, and I don't want to sound like I'm a Pablo apologist. I hated the signing the second it happened. The guy was declining long before the signing. Then, to fall off a cliff after already going through a long decline is not encouraging. I've said over and over that I'm not counting on one inning from Pablo at 3B in 2017. I'm also not writing him off or projecting him as having a significant chance at winning the FT 3B job on opening day or even by May. To me, his best chance at playing a lot is if we don't add a DH, and he platoons with Young as our DH. His chances at 3B are much less than as a DH, but it's not at zero. If Shaw sucks in ST'ing, then Pablo has a shot at playing his way into the job. He might not take as long as you have mapped out, but certainly it might take that long or longer if ever. He just turned 30. He's not the only fat player to play beyond 30. I'm not even sure how fat he actually is right now. I'd like to know his weight now vs last year at this time, and during his 3 WAR days with SF. Not that weight tells thew hole story, but it would clue us in a little more on how dedicated he has been since getting hurt this year.

He was pretty fat in SF. SF was seriously bummed out he didn't come back with them. That wasn't that long ago. Nobody knows, if he's fatter right now or will be by ST'ing than his "3 WAR days".

What are your thoughts on Logan?

Other than Jansen, Chapman and Melancon, is anybody else having difficulty seeing another free agent RP'er worth getting serious about? Relief Pitchers John Axford Joaquin Benoit Jonathan Broxton Buddy Carlyle Brett Cecil Santiago Casilla Aroldis Chapman Jesse Chavez Tim Collins Aaron Crow Wade Davis * Michael Dunn Dana Eveland Neftali Feliz Jason Grilli * Luke Hochevar Greg Holland J.P. Howell Kenley Jansen Casey Janssen Kevin Jepsen Brandon League Boone Logan Javier Lopez Brian Matusz Mark Melancon Joe Nathan Josh Outman Yusmeiro Petit Cesar Ramos Francisco Rodriguez * Sergio Romo Marc Rzepczynski Fernando Salas Sergio Santos Joe Smith Craig Stammen Drew Storen Josh Tomlin Jordan Walden * Brad Ziegler

I'm not counting on Pablo for Jack, but I'm not writing him off either. Yes, he's overweight and has been for his whole career. Yes, he got hurt shortly after starting the season after not looking very good on defense all ST'ing. Yes, he's a year older. But, I will say this, you know the guy has heard everything said and has read much of what has been said about him. If the guy has a shred of pride, he's dedicated himself to proving us all wrong. That doesn't mean he'll be successful, but he's actually still young enough to turn things around, if he really wants it. None of us know what's in his head. Even if he loses 100 pounds, he still might not be in the right frame of mind. He might still suck. He might get hurt again. The again, he might get over .780 and be an average fielder. He might become a successful DH, at least vs RHPs. The only reason I keep mentioning Pablo is because I have little faith in Shaw. I'm not writing him off either, but the guy had a .715 OPS in AAA and hit .242 in AA, so let's temper our enthusiasm for him rebounding too.

Only if we trade JBJ or Beni as part of a larger package for an ace.

I doubt they will either, but if he's not part of their plans for next year, we might as well get something for him via trade rather than just not offer the option.

$900K + $900K is closer to $2M not 3, but I agree on both. Once 3B is se6yttled, I could see us trading Rutledge ($1M)

Updated Under contract for 2017 (7 players): $30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $13.75M Pedroia, $10.5M Kimbrell, $6.5M Young. TOTAL: $123.35M (Note: Castillo's$10.25M and Craig's $6.2M contracts do not count on the luxury tax budget, if they remain off the 40 man roster.) __________________________________________________ Options ( 2 players): $13.5M Buchholz and $3.75M Hannigan TOTAL: $1.3M (buyouts) 0 to $17.25M (giving both) Let’s assume we say yes to Buch and no to Hanigan’s ($800K buyout): Updated to TOTAL: $137.65M _________________________________________ Arbs (11players) ~$22.7M: Fernando Abad $2.0MM, Robbie Ross Jr.$1.8MM, Joe Kelly $2.6MM, Drew Pomeranz $4.7MM, Josh Rutledge $1.0MM, Brock Holt $1.7MM, Xander Bogaerts $5.7MM, Bryan Holaday $900K (out of options- may be DFA'd or traded), Brandon Workman $600K, Jackie Bradley Jr.$3.3MM, Sandy Leon $1.3MM TOTAL of 19 players: ~$160.4M (with Buch) _______________________________________________________ The 21 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Benintendi, Scott, Moncada TOTAL: ~$12.6M 40 Player Total: ~ $173M Now, add the estimated $12M for player benefits and our Luxury Tax Total is... TOTAL $185M That leaves us with about $4M to spend without going over the luxury limit as it is right now ($189M), however, the limit is expected to rise to over $200M and perhaps closer to $210M for 2017. If we assume it will be about $210M next year, which leaves us with about $25 to spend and stay close to or under the luxury tax. It is my understanding that the Sox luxury tax will be 50% next year, so I think there is interest to reset that number. Some of these players may be traded or DFA'd due to lack of options remaining: Holaday, Abad, Elias & Brentz Not taking Buch's $13.5M option and paying the $500K buyout would add $13M to the amount, but it would create another hole.

Thanks. This is the closest I've ever gotten. I'm no expert on arbs. I think I remember someone saying Bogey would get $10M minimum. First year arb players are often way underpaid when compared to the "open market".

Abad's out of options. I think he'll be gone.

I see two ways it might happen: 1) We pick up a 3Bman making both expendable 2) Pablo looks good and we are happy with Moncada's progress this winter (Shaw traded). We're too weak at 3B to trade away one of our options, before we know what's up.

While I'm not high on Shaw, I'm not high on Pablo either. I'm not sure we trade any of these guys until we know who the man will be.

I see the odds being pretty high that Shaw ends up below .725, let alone .750. My guess is that he ends up below .700. It's not out of any hatred towards him. He was my "sleeper prospect of the year" way back when.