moonslav59

For what we ended up paying Price, we could have had both.

I'm not penciling him in either.

He's got an .829 OPS in 24 ABs in the AFL. 10 Ks.

He's got one year left on his deal at $7.5M. Who they want back might depend on how they are approaching 2017. If they want to try hard to win in 2017, they will want ML talent. If they go into rebuild mode, they might take prospects. They may try to play it both ways and take 4 years of team control of T Shaw plus maybe Matt Barnes and Henry Owens. I'd like to see us try to get David Robertson as well, so maybe we can offer Pomeranz, TShaw and Owens for Robertson and Frazier. That may be too much to give, but I'm not sure about this either: Swihart, T Shaw, Barnes and Johnson.

I have to think DD will fill the pen hole(s). The other holes are DH and 3B, but with Moncada and Devers so close to ML ready, I can see waiting it out a bit. Beltran might be a short term option for DH, since he can play LF at NL parks, but maybe finding a one year 3B (Todd Frazier) fix might be in store.

It is hard to find great pitching in the draft after the top 5 or 10 picks.

At the time, I thought the $36M/4 for Andrew Miller was a good deal for the Yanks and thought we should have out bid them. We could have has ERod and Miller.

I once caused a kid to blow a chunk of tomato from his Italian Sandwich out his nose.

Man oh man, I wish we had signed Andrew Miller!

I had soda coming out of my nose on that one!

Totally agree. There is one area that modern winning teams all seem to excel at: the bullpen. Why can't we ever have guys like Andrew Miller?

The team was a 98 Win team, according to its Pythagorean W-L, with the worst 3B and the stinky pen. I agree that both of those areas are areas of weakness that can be upgraded. I don't agree that they are 'glaring' weaknesses. 30th in WAR at 3B is a major hole not just a hole. Our stinky pen is losing three of its best pitchers: Ziegler, Uehara and Taz. Worse than "stinky" is a hole. The pen issues will be addressed by DD, and Buch or Pom will be part of the pen, barring injury to a SP'er.

If there is a hole, it's at DH. If Hanley is DH, then there's a hole at 1B. If Shaw is at 1B, there's a hole at 3B. We cannot count on Shaw to fill a hole at 1B or 3B. Shaw is a hole right now. He may bounce back, but how can you call a guy who lost his job to Hill/Holt/Moncada anything but a "hole"?

You're focusing way too much on offensive OPS at 3B. We've got enough offense elsewhere on the team that a weak hitter at 3B is tolerable. And Shaw is an elite defender, he returned a lot of defensive value as a third baseman. That's why despite his poor bat, he returned average value by bWAR at 3B last year and why 3B is not a hole. It's an area for potential improvement, that's not the same thing as a "hole." Shaw is an "elite defender" at 1B NOT 3B! He's average at 3B at best. He was 17th out of 33 third basemen in UZR/150 (+1.6). The team placed 15th in UZR/150 at 0.0, so it's not just about offense and OPS at 3B. Look, I said we could still win with some "holes" in the line-up, but that doesn't mean it's not a hole. We had a massive hole at 3B this year. We were clearly the worst in MLB, and it wasn't close. How much worse did the have to be for you to call it a "hole"? I've also said that our two best prospects play 3B and we have Pablo returning. We should improve at 3B, even if we don't make any acquisitions there, but as we look right now, I'd say we rate to finish in the bottom 20-25% in 3B WAR next year. We can argue semantics on whether that is a "hole" or not, but we do look to be weak at 3B in 2017, unless Moncada progresses quickly or a Pablo miracle materializes. I'm fine with not making any 3B additions. I agree we can absorb a couple holes and still have a top 3 offense next year. We'll probably be below average at 3B, C and DH, assuming we add nobody on offense. As for the bullpen that's the same thing. We can improve there. If we don't make a major move our bullpen should probably still be adequate however. Unlike 3B I do predict DD will make a move or two to brace up the middle of the bullpen. I diagree. Losing Ziegler alone is huge. Uehara and Taz will also be missed. Carson Smith is a big question mark and may not return until June. Kelly, Scott and others looked good in September, and maybe Buch or Pom will be in the pen next year, but I'm not thrilled with Kimbrel, we lack a seriuos #2 RP'er who can close, if needed, and we are relying too much on Ross, Barnes, Hembree to not take a step back. I agree that DD will address the pen "hole". The question is, by how much.

When you're in a pennant race, urgency does change some priorities. The injuries to Young and Holt forced the need for a LF'er. Since Swihart's defense as a catcher seemed to be a major issue for the Sox brass, one can easily see why finding another position for him made sense. He may never be our catcher of the future, and we needed a LF'er badly. I can see the point being made about impeding his progress as a catcher, but we were looking to win, and I still think Swihart will never pass Vaz on the catching depth chart due to the defensive disparity. We thought we had Beltran at the deadline, but a last minute change by the Yanks left us high and dry in LF. That's why Beni was "rushed". I had no issues with that call at the time. Our putrid play at 3B through August and September did make calling Moncada up an easier choice. Yeah, he looked bad in his tiny sample size, but I think he learned some lessons. He's playing in the fall league, so I don't think we slowed his growth by calling him up.

Andrew Miller is the man!

We had the worst 3B WAR and the worst 3B OPS. Unless Moncada or Pablo improve out position, it's still a major or "glaring" hole. Our pen stunk for most of the year. A major reason we did much better towards the end of the year was the acquisition of Ziegler and the return of Uehara and to a lesser extent Tazwa. None of those guys are signed for us next year. The pen, as it looks now, is a huge glaring and gaping hole. Can we still win with two big holes? Yes, but when you count the loss of Papi at DH, I seriously doubt we won't make at least one serious move to fill one of those holes or get a big bat DH.

Just because Vazquez did poorly when he was brought up doesn't mean he was rushed. He may have been, but it's hard to know for sure. In terms of development of our young catchers I think they've had plenty of time to develop. Vazquez started in the Sox system at age 17. He reached single A at age 18, played 80 games at Salem at age 19 and 105 at age 20. At age 21 he was promoted to AA playing 101 games between A & AA. He then played 10 more games in the fall league and 9 in the winter league that year making it 120 games total in 2012! In 2013, at age 22, he played in 97 games between AA and AAA plus 33 games in the winter league for 130 games total. By the time Vaz got his look at the ML level he was 23. He played 66 games at AAA and then 55 with Boston. He played another 33 in winter ball for 144 total games. So far, it looked like a very good path and progress. His injury in 2015 stopped any further growth for a year, and maybe they did rush him in 2016, but I don't think his tough stretch with Boston this year set him back. If he's not ready for 2017, it's on him. Swihart's path started at age 19, but he really began playing significantly at age 20 (92 games at single A). He played 103 games at age 21 with Salem (A+). He rose quickly at age 22 (92 games at AA & 18 at AAA. He was clearly rushed into the bigs at age 23, when Vaz got hurt. He played 20 games at AAA and 84 with Boston. As it turned out, he did very well with a .712 OPS in his first 309 PAs in MLB. His defense was not great, and there was concern about how he worked with pitchers, but he didn't look like an embarrassment. The rapid demotion to start 2016 was a bit surprising, and the move to LF was rather shocking, but I have to believe that had to do as much with their low view of his defensive abilities at catcher than the big need in LF after Holt and Young's injuries. Swihart's injury this year certainly slowed his growth, but I'm not sure I disagree with management's view that he does not deserve to be the FT catcher. Leon was never supposed to be our FT starter. His slump to end the season might mean he does not have the starter role locked up for 2017. I'd give all three an equal chance at winning the job, and we'll see what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if any one of the three is traded as the need for catching is super high right now.

Who said that?

Hanigan's OPS was an incredibly low .468, yet he played 35 games at catcher (over 20%), so I think him playing over Swihart is a more glaring example than Leon. However, when we started playing Leon, his reputation was very low on offense. Once he started hitting, there was little choice but to not play anyone else.Your point is well-taken. The other clue was that we brought Vazquez up very quickly, perhaps before we wanted to and before he was ready.

The fact that we put Swihart in LF last year speaks volumes of Sox management's belief that Swihart can and will hit. LF is not position for weak hitters. Yanking Swihart from the catcher position so quickly this spring does seem to show that Sox management doubts his defensive skills as a catcher. Going with Hanigan and then Leon over Swihart amplified that view. I'm not saying Swihart can't improve on defense, but as of this season, I don't think he had the defensive value to be viewed as a solid FT catcher option.

A Beni-Young platoon is possible, if Beni struggles. If Beni does struggle, it will likely be vs LHP'ers. However, using Young in LF vs lefties would then open a slot at DH vs lefties.

At least for now, we have no outfield need for Swihart unless it is pure utility. On the surface this appears to be correct. We have 3 OF'ers that can play plus CF defense. That provides us with enormous flexibility and CF depth, however we have no ML ready OF'er depth on the farm.We have Young, yes, but he is not really a good option vs RHPs. He also missed some time last year, as did Beni and Holt. My point is, I don't think Young and Holt make a great long term option in LF, if someone gets hurt. I still view Swihart as our top LF sub vs RHPs (which is the majority split). A trade might change that but he is a more likely trade candidate than the others. Agreed. He's been in almost all of my trade suggestions. Swihart hasn't shown great power at bat so probably would not fit the 1st base slot as well as Hanley. There is a real possibility at catcher as neither Leon nor Vazquez is likely to hit well. I would trade Leon of the two as he has a higher trade value and his weight is really too high to expect him to hold up well during the season again next year. If we can get buy with Swihart and Vazquez, then our needs should be focused on third and DH as well as pitching. I don't think weight is a major issue with Leon, but I do think trading him while his stock is highest may be an option. I don't think that happens, unless Sox management is comfortable with Swihart's defense as a catcher. They yanked him so quickly last year. I have little faith in Sandoval. True he has lost weight, but he is quoted as seeing no problem with his performance the last period with the Sox. No contrition there and a likelihood of putting the weight back on. I'm not confident in Pablo, but there is a hope he can help somewhere. Shaw hasn't had any sustained period of performance at the plate. Sure he has. His AAA .715 OPS was over an extended time. His less than impressive AA numbers were also over an extended playing time. If you put the end of 2015 with the beginning of 2016, that is also an extended playing time. I still see some (little) hope he can end up over .750 in 2017. We either need to get a FA third basement or develop one of three young candidates and have him in the lineup by June or July next season. Moncada is our best hope at 3B, but he may not be ready by opening day. DH is either by committee or we really go out and spend big but the risk is also big. We have a big hole to fill with Ortiz gone and we need to improve in areas where we showed weakness last year. It's in DD's hands and things will need to start happening at the conclusion of the world series. I can see us going the route of nothing major: pick up a couple decent pen arms and a vet corner IF'er that bats lefty and then look to the trade deadline to fill any holes realized. Since only Young will be a FA after 2017, and Moncada, Devers and Travis so close to ML ready, I don't see us obtaining a big bat with a long term contract, unless we trade a big prospect or a starter at a position where one of the big prospects can play.

...Right now we don't have a hole in our rotation, and we don't have a major hole in our lineup at all... I'd say 3B looks to be a "major hole", but at least our best two prospects play 3B. We also have Pablo returning and T Shaw showing some hope. Holt & Hernandez offer some nice back-up support, and maybe between those 4 and Moncada, some one will rise to the top. That's the optimistic view, but the fact is our 3B position batted .685 this year (16 points behind the 29th best team in MLB). Only 6 other teams were below .730 at 3B. Two-thirds of all teams were above .752 and more than one-third were above .795. What's worse is how we ended the season with a .595 3B OPS. That's sickening. That's a massive hole. That's the pessimist view. Our catcher position also has a high risk of being a "hole in the line-up" on offense. Swihart offers a lot of promise to change that, but he is by far, the weakest defender of the three, so he may not play much as a catcher. Our .681 catcher OPS was highly inflated by Leon's hot streak that could easily be just a fluke. We ended the season with a .606 OPS in September. I'm very concerned about our catcher offense next year, but to me, the catcher position is mostly about defense, so I'm not worried about our overall cacther value when compared to other teams. The DH position could also be a concern. Right now, we are looking at the strong possibility (assuming no acquisition) that Young will DH vs LHPs, but who will be the DH vs RHPs? Pablo? Moncada? Swihart? HanRam could DH, but then the concern transfers to 1B. Overall, I'm happy with our offense and think we have less "holes" than almost every other team in MLB, even without Papi in the line-up.

Good point. Reminds me of when I wanted us to get B McCarthy or B Anderson- both came up short of expectations. I also remember suggesting we trade Middy (at his peak value) for T Bauer.