moonslav59

It's hard to know for sure what Ben might have done had he stayed, but I'm pretty certain he'd have signed a big pitcher and addressed the pen needs.

Maybe it wouldn't have gotten out, but what happened was clearly "turmoil" or worse. It was a mess.

Agreed, but with all that clubhouse turmoil, letting Tito go made some sense at the time.

Ben also built the farm that DD has and is going to use to take all the credit for getting us out of the cellar.

The 2011 team "tanked". The clubhouse was in turmoil like never before. Have you forgotten the state of the team from 2011 to 2012? We were 11.5 games out 4 days before the deadline in 2012. What a great team Ben inherited! They were sure great "on paper"! Then, he makes 3 mid-level signings (Naps, Viv & Demp) and the team comes together and wins a ring. Had HanRam played like 2016 in 2015, we wouldn't have finished in last place. I guess that's Ben's fault. DD makes big glitzy signings and trades and we don't advance past the first round, and he gets your pat on the back.

Come on now - you know that you are hindsight's master. 100% wrong. I have never said "I told you so" after price, Kimbrel and Pom all failed to reach expectations. I was highly critical of the trades the second they occurred. That's not "hindsight". I'm also not one to try and blame everything on one guy or player. I was the last to call for Bobby V's firing. I didn't even complain about leaving Pedro in. The Red Sox have made a ton of huge deals over the years. Some have worked out, more I guess have not. I'll leave that up to you. I like DD's moves because they have been rational and seem to make sense. Of course we all wish that Kimbrel and Price could have shown the dominance that they have shown but who knew? None of us really wanted to see Smith get injured. DD has not simply thrown crap against the wall in hopes that some would stick as his predecessors have done. Sensible moves in the present tense! We'll see how this off-season works out for him. I liked the Carson Smith and Ziegler deals at the time they were made. I have said so many times. I'm not upset with DD. I realize why he made the deals I disliked just like I did with the Iggy trade and the great 2014 pitcher purge. I also called (at the time of the trade) the Dodger Dump "perhaps the best trade made by a Sox GM in my lifetime". I'm not always against trades and signings. I liked the Porcello trade and extension AT THE TIME. I liked the Napoli signing and re-signing. I liked the Uehara trade, AT THE TIME, and the re-signings.

Never said he sucks. Never even said he was below average.

GMs are judged in hindsight. Right or wrong, that's just the way it is. I don't like assigning blame when things go wrong, and since we went from last to first, "going wrong" is debatable. I am often critical of individual moves by our GMs, but I don't think of it as "blaming them". They have enormous pressure on them to win now, and my philosophy is more about looking longer term. Theo even admitted he lost sight of the longer term in his later years in Boston. I disliked DD's biggest moves at the time, so this is not Monday morning quarterbacking for me. The biggest move was signing Price with an out option after 3 years. The money was absurd, but in today's market, he "got what he was worth". However, most big signings do not work out, even in the short term. I said at the time, I understood the great need to add an ace and that "Price was probably the best FA SP'er to come along in a long time." I don't "blame him" for signing him. I preferred Cueto, but I'm not trying to pretend I'm smarter than DD, Ben, Theo or Dan D. Now, in hindsight, the signing does not look good so far. He did not reach expectation in his first regular season, and that's when the big value was supposed to materialize. We all expected lower value in years 5-7, but not #1, although I did warn of the poor past history of these mega signings. The next biggest deal was the Margot, Guerra, Allen and Asuaje. Sure, Guerra's stock has fallen, so the "hindsight" part of viewing the trade looks a little better than if he was doing well, but at the risk of beating a dead horse repeatedlymy argument at the time of the deal was that we gave up a lot of young talent for a relief pitcher. Then, when you figure he is being paid similar to free agent closer money, we double-dipped on the "overpay." Yes, I get the argument that Margot was blocked by Beni, but many here felt Beni was rushed, and the trade for Kimbrel was not the only trade option. The hindsight view of the trade has to look worse than it did at the time. Kimbrel did not pitch like a top 3 closer this year. That's what we thought we were getting. That's what I thought we were getting and I still hated the trade. I'm not going to say, "See, I told you so!" because I thought he would be a top 3 closer this year. My beef was not about him projecting decline, but the decline certainly makes the deal look worse to me now. The third biggest deal was the Espi for Pomeranz trade. I hated the trade at the time, because I felt we should have looked to create a bigger package for a better starter. Pomeranz had pitched like an ace for just a half a season. We needed a starter. We were in a pennant race. I get why we did it. I'm not "blaming" DD for doing it, but I still think it was a gross overpay. I'm glad it was for 2 more years of team control with Pom, and I hope to hell he pitches well for us the next 2 years. I hate blaming a GM for an injury, but the fact is, so far, the Pom part of the trade has not lived up to expectations. The Ziegler deal was probably his distant fourth biggest deal. I liked it at the time, even though the "other Basabe" looked promising. Ziegler did great for us. The deal was good in foresight and good in hindsight. Overall, our roster looks strong. We have maybe 2-3 weak links, and the main core of our top prospects are still intact. This winter may be an even more defining time period for DD than last winter's glitzy bombshells.

I really liked the trade for Smith. DD wasn't the GM when we traded for Lee Smith.

Too bad there's no Andrew Miller in this winter's FA market.

We should have signed Miller to $40M/4.

You mean the last place Theo team of 2012? Last place. If the 2013 teams was Theo's then the 2016 is Ben's.

...and the guy he replaced turned a last place team into a World Series Champ. If the Price signings ends up like the Pablo signing, DD may end up with the same fate as Ben.

Well, they had the best 2nd half ERA, so it's hard to think our pitching wasn't looking good going into the playoffs. The Wright and Pomeranz injuries didn't help, and losing Carson Smith all year hurt, but Cleveland's pitching in juries were worse than ours. We acquired Ziegler and Pom. The Guardians acquired Miller.

I liked the Young signing and Ziegler trade. I was against everything else, but within the context of trying to win for Papi's last year, I can understand why he did what he did. The fact that Kimbrel and Price are under team control for 2 more years is another factor in DD's favor. I'm not happy with DD so far, but I am far from blaming him or suggesting he should be replaced. We still have a nice core of young players, another core of nice top prospect, and a few vets that are still within prime. Our oldest players on the roster right now are Young (33) and HanRam (32)!

Margot was a highly ranked prospect, and Guerra was ranked pretty highly by some, so Espi was not the only prospect traded by DD.

I actually like Madden.

If we had Miller, we could have traded Margot and others for something else. Even if we kept Margot, we'd be better off.

MN unload the guys they didn't want during the season. I guess they tried to move E Sanatan but wanted too much. No one will trade with SD this offseason. Not sure about that. They will be under a microscope. Do the Sox really want Votto from CIN? I don't see them moving any of their young arms. Agreed, but I would give Cincy Pablo as a salary balancer and a bunch of prospects for Votto. There aren't too many guys on ATL that I'd be interested in. Adonis Garcia for 3B? With Moncada and Devers, I think we may look for a shorter term 3B solution, if any. TB won't trade within the division. It's difficult but not impossible Sonny Gray is toast and the A's roster is meager at best. Gray may comeback, but I'd like to see it before we trade for him, and if we wait for that, his stock will go up. With all the changes in the front, I don't see AZ dumping many players. Though maybe they would be inclined to grab some Sox prospects that they are fond of? Could have inner track on this one. Jake Lamb will not be traded, but it's fun to dream. Goldschmidt is a dream, for sure. I don't see any pen pieces that jump out there. Greinke could be available, if they go rebuild mode, but can we afford him and Price? Do we want to pay that much? I think not. PHI has some great young arms, but I don't see them moving them at all. Well, maybe for some young bats like Moncada, Devers, Basabe, S Travis or Swihart. Would MIL want to sell high on Hernan Perez? He would be good IF depth. Does Zach Davies have a lot of upside? They do have some nice pen arms. I like Davies, but at 23, he'd be costly. Maybe if we take Garza off their books ($17.5M owed for 2017 and 2018 buyout), they'd lessen the return demanded. LAA only has Trout. Maybe Cam Bedrosian? COL has some great bats, but not at the position we would need. This team is on the upswing and I don't think they'd trade any young guys. I also don't trust offensive stats fro COL players, unless their road OPS care solid. CWS has two aces that we'll talk about all winter. They also have David Robertson and Todd Frazier, and if they go into rebuild mode, they'll look to trade their salaries and short-term commitments too. PTT has some intriguing pieces like Kang. I think they still see themselves as being in a window to win now with McCutchen. Too bad we couldn't get AM Does MIA want to move Stanton? Would Sox want that contract at DH? Probably No and No, but if we included JBj or Beni in the deal, he could play LF. KC has some great arms, but I'm not sold on them dumping what brought them a title. Word is they want to cut salary. Maybe Wade Davis?

What MLB teams are in "rebuild mode" and may have players we need? Here are the worst MLB teams by record (least wins): 59 MN 68 SDP, CIN, ATL & TBR 69 OAK & AZ 71 PHI 73 MIL 74 LAA 75 COL 78 CWS & PITT 79 MIA 81 KCR (apparently looking to cut salary)

Free Agent Options at Our Positions of Need Relief Pitchers: John Axford, Joaquin Benoit, Jonathan Broxton, Buddy Carlyle, Brett Cecil, Santiago Casilla, Aroldis Chapman, Jesse Chavez, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Wade Davis *, Michael Dunn, Dana Eveland, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli *, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland, J.P. Howell, Kenley Jansen, Casey Janssen, Kevin Jepsen, Brandon League, Boone Logan, Javier Lopez, Brian Matusz, Mark Melancon, Joe Nathan, Josh Outman, Yusmeiro Petit, Cesar Ramos, Francisco Rodriguez *, Sergio Romo, Marc Rzepczynski, Fernando Salas, Sergio Santos, Joe Smith, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen, Josh Tomlin, Jordan Walden *, Brad Ziegler Third Basemen: Daniel Descalso, Martin Prado, Justin Turner, Luis Valbuena Catchers : Drew Butera, Jason Castro, A.J. Ellis, Ryan Hanigan*, Nick Hundley, Jonathan Lucroy *, Wilson Ramos, David Ross, Chris Stewart, Kurt Suzuki *, Josh Thole, Matt Wieters DH: (not all listed) Edwin Encarnacion (1B), Jose Bautista (RF), Carlos Beltran (LF), Mark Trumbo (1B), Kendrys Morales* (1B), Adam Lind (1B), Matt Holiday *(LF), Michael Saunders (OF)

If we do go for a DH type, I think it should be for as short a term as we can bargain for- maybe 1 or 2 years. That would likely exclude EE, but maybe Bautista or Beltran would fit the bill. Too bad Jose B can't play 3B anymore. (He hasn't since 2011.)

The number one weak area going into next season is relief pitching. That has to be addressed due to losing 3 free agents and the weakness of some we had hoped better from, such as Abad. We have a lot of promise in the pen, but most is speculative, at best. Does anybody really have a lot of faith in Barnes, Hembree, Kelly, Scott and the returning Carson Smith? We had a lot of issues with our pen this year. It looked okay at the end of the season, but let's not kid ourselves. Our pen was not good overall. Subtract from that the probable loss of... Ziegler 30 IP 1.52 ERA Uehara 47 IP 3.45 ERA Tazawa 50 IP 4.17 ERA That's 127 IP out of 470 IP or 27%. Our pen had a 4.8 WAR. Ziegler (0.8), Uehara (0.6) and Tazawa (0.2) accounted for 33% of the RP'er WAR. Zeigler and Uehara were in our top 4 and accounted for almost 30% of our pen WAR. This is clearly our weakest link. This is what our pen looks like with no additions: Closer: Kimbrel RP2: R Ross (until C Smith returns) RP3: Kelly RP4: Barnes RP5: Hembree RP6: Scott RP7: Abad (out of options) Others: (maybe Buch or Pom), Elias, Workman, Martin, N Ramirez and possibly Owens or Johnson converting from starters. I would rate 3rd base as our second weakest area. Shaw didn't get it done last year and is likely to be marginal at best. I doubt Sandoval can return to that position and he may be more apt to fit the DH role against RHP if at all. I also now doubt Moncada based on what has been happening. Is he the second coming of Castillo or a true ML player in the making? We can get by for a while but I would go for a legitimate ML third baseman and not pin hopes on so many iffy scenarios. Trade the ones we have if need be. I see no reason to imply Moncada may be comparable to Castillo. Moncada's sample size in tiny, and most of his issues are with defense and striking out. My biggest worry is his defense and how long it might take him to become ML ready on defense. That's why I have mentioned DH for him, until he learns a position. I know that sounds like a contradiction, but MLB players do learn things in practice too. DH is also in need of change. If we could get Beltran, then we would have an excellent ML talent with some power to fill the bill for a while. Others, like Young and or Sandoval might help there. If we significantly improve the pen and find a one year fiz at 3B, I think the DH spot might be okay with a Pablo-Young, Swihart-Young or Moncada-Young platoon. If they struggle, DH's are easier to find mid season than anyone else. Catching is also in need of improvement as probably both our main catching talents are likely to put up weak hitting numbers. Maybe we look within at Swihart. I rate that as our 4th weakest area. I do think our catcher offense is likely to be a weak point, but with 3 catchers showing promise, I think we'll go with what we got. If we end up trading Swihart, we may pick up a vet for a short term deal. SP is not a weakness except when we get into the playoffs. Then only Porcello and perhaps E-Rod can do the job. If a chance comes up for DD to snare a good young SP prospect, without giving away the store, why not take it? Clearly the likelihood of that happening is low but to be competitive in the POs we need some help. I'm always for exploring ways to improve the rotation from or near the top, but with Buch likely returning, we'll have 6 guys that finished in the top 30 in ERA- for one half or the other in 2016. None seemed like a fluke, so I think we'll stand pat here, unless Quintana or Sale become available. Even then, the return cost cannot be too high.

I said I'm think what they'd want for Frazier is too much. I'm not for giving up too much for Frazier. If we could get Robertson too, who is signed through 2018, then I'd think about overpaying. I would not give Swihart for Frazier. I do not think TShaw, Barnes and Owens is a significant overpay. I'm sure Harmony would say it's a massive underpay. I'm using Frazier as an example, because he is a one year fix that would cost less than a multi-year fix. I'm not a huge Frazier fan, but I'll take him over Valbuena.

And, as of right now, he's plan C for 2017. A- Leon (or Leon/Vazquez platoon) B- Vazquez (or Vaz-Leon platoon) C- Swihart as part of some sort of platoon.