moonslav59

There are countless pitchers with low K rates that consistently got guys out and had lower ERAs than FIP. They get screwed by the metric. It's a giant hole. Pitchers who get batters out should not be penalized because they lack a high K rate. I get the reasoning behind trying to get the fielders out of the equation, and FIP has a use, but the giant bias needs to be corrected before I pay it much heed.

If we could trade Abad and save $2M, I think we could afford to add a RP'er making $4-6M and still have enough wiggle room to add a decent player at the deadline, as we'll only be on the hook for 1/3 of his salary at that point in the season. That means if we have $5M to spend at the deadline and still stay under the limit, we could acquire a player making about $15M on the season as a whole.

Because he started 30 games to Wright's 24. Like I said, it's close, and I'm fine with either choice. My point is that even if you call them equal as starters, Pom has shown he's much better in relief than Wright, so that's the tipping poiint in my opinion- not the slight advantage Wright has as a starter both in 2016 and over their careers.

I'm more worried about Beni's somewhat fragility or injury risk than his performance level risk. With Young, Swihart and Holt/Moreland as emergency LF'ers, I think we'll be fine in LF. I see a major increase in LF production and defense next year.

From what I hear, we are about $14M under the limit, but every time we call up a minor leaguer and pay him a MLB salary, we add a little. That means we really might have about $9-11M of flex space. Your numbers leave out the player benefits payment of about $13M that counts against the luxury tax budget. Plus, payroll is different from average salary cost of each player.

Yes, he deserves a chance to show what he can do. I will mention that I see little evidence from his long history to show he has the skills to build a very good farm system.

Even if you look at 2016 only (both suffered injuries that may have affected their late season numbers): ERA+ Wright 137 Pomeranz 128 ERA- Wright 75 Pomeranz 79 Wright faced tougher teams in the AL East, a DH most of the games, and pitched in a hitter's park. Pom faced easier opponents and pitched many games in one of MLB's best pitcher's parks.

Because he has a much better record in relief than Wright, and they are both pretty even as SP'ers. I actually like Wright's SP'ing numbers slightly more than Poms. His percent of games allowing 0-2 or 0-3 ERs is better than Pom's. It's a close call. Either way is fine with me.

Jeter went from being near average to being one of the worst defensive SSs in his time.

Agreed. I think UZR 150 is better than any single person's opinion based on the eye test and old school use of FLG% and RF/9. Personally, I like UZR/150 a lot, but only in large sample sizes that often need to be more than a full season. I also consult the Fielding Bible, DRS and Inside Edge data. The GG vote is a joke. FLDG% is not even accurate as home team scorers often make very questionable choices-- probably more so than the UZR data collectors. RF/9 can be easily influenced by how often a player's pitching staff allows GB, Fly balls or Ks.

If we do acquire another RP'er, like I hope we do, maybe there would be a debate, but I still see Wright or Pom in the pen as a major addition that outweighs the added depth of one guy like Abad. We got Abad for Pat Light. That shows how easy it is to trade for some depth like Abad mid season. What we lack in pen depth are pitchers with options remaining, preferably with ML experience. We have Workman and Scott and a bunch of guys like Noe Ramirez and Ysla, but we could use a couple more Scotts. If we do sign a guy like Holland, I'd just trade Abad or Hembree or both, and still keep ERod in the rotation.

We'll have to agree to disagree. We have plenty of pitchers who do very well vs LHPs, including RH'd Thornburg who has amazing reverse splits: vs LHBs: .531 vs RHBs: .732 We could probably trade Abad for a decent RP'er with an option left...even more so with Hembree as he has 3 years of team control remaining. I love having Wright or Pom in the pen. That's an addition that costs us no more money or prospects to trade for a pitcher of their caliber. To me, it's a waste to not use one of them in the pen. Sending ERod to AAA weakens the pen too much to offset any loss in depth we may encounter by having to trade Abad or HH. Plus, we can just create an injury and keep them on "rehab" to prolong any decision. Again, we are talking about the current roster and assuming everyone is healthy, which probably won't happen, so all this debate would be about nothing. We might trade for a pen arm, and then a debate could follow, but I really don't see sending down a healthy and productive ERod as a even a slight consideration for the small plus it might give us by allowing us to keep both ABad and Hembree on the team. I respect your opinion, and maybe we view the word "consideration" in different ways, but I don't see it happening, unless we make a trade or signing and further crowd the pen.

I don't recall 700 weighing in on this issue. (Did I just say that out loud? ......Oooops!)

Paul Byrd

we can keep everyone we want by starting them in AAA, except one from Abad or Hembree, so to me it is just about Abad. Sending ERod to AAA would be a way to keep both Abad & Hembree. It's not worth it. Every one else has options remains so we're not saving their depth slot by sending anyone to AAA.

uZR is a very valuable tool. It's much better than any single fan watching mostly one team's games and fielding % and RF9.

I agree. If it was up to me, Pom starts the year in the pen.

We might have traded Buch even without the Sale trade. I'm glad DD is all in on ERod. I think this is his breakout season.

Maybe Sox management thinks Pom is a better starter than the others, and it has nothing to do with the Espi trade, but I do agree that the trade looks worse if Pom is in the pen.

I do too. He could easily be better than Ross, if he can stay consistent. He's clearly better than Hembree and Abad on paper.

I have no idea why Sox Prospects puts Kelly in Pawtucket to start the year. He had some success in the pen last year and seems to be talked about as a big part of that pen by the brass, especially if he looks good this spring. Maybe they know something we don't. Kelly also looked great as a starter to end the 2015 season.

He has an .809 OPS vs LHPs career. He's been around .780 vs LHPs the last 2 years. Seems like a better fit than Rutledge.

He was always a high OBP guy. He was close to a .500 OBP in college. His first year in the minors (over 270 PAs) saw an OBP over .500! He ended up with a .442 OBP in over 1800 minor league PAs.

Some one will be hurt or sucking badly in ST'ing. We only need one guy and all the 25 man roster questions will be answered.If nobody is injured or struggling badly, we can invent an injury for Abad or Hembree to be placed on the DL. If someone else looks like they could use some sharpening up, we could put them on the DL with a "rehab" assignment. I'm not sure why soxprospects put Kelly as a starter not the AAA closer, but maybe they heard something we have not. Maybe they just saw our strong need for a 7th starter. I think the reason they put Kelly in AAA was so we could keep Abad and Hembree on the team and ERod on the 25 man roster as ERod > Kelly. Wright is greater than Kelly as well (as a starter or in relief). I think Kelly is better than both Abad and hembree, so maybe we trade one of these two, if we really are feeling squeezed. When C Smith returns, a whole new debate may occur. A

My point has always been that while Swihart is improving his D, so would Vaz and Leon, so Swi is likely never going to catch up with those two. I do think Swi can and will improve. I'm not sure by how much. When I mention him possibly DH'ing for us, I hear what a waste of "an athlete" that would be. If he really is such "an athlete", then maybe LF is the best place for him. Personally, I don't think Swi's D is good enough right now. If it was, he'd be starting next season for the Sox. I think he can and will get better. I'm not sure about getting better enough to play in MLB, but I'm also not sure about Vaz and Leon's offense. I'm not big on needing offense from our catcher, so that's why nobody hears me harping on Vaz's bat.