moonslav59

I thought about that, but one thing sways the decision. If we are down 2-1, we will pitch Sale in game 4. that leaves the game 2 starter ready to pitch game 5 on normal rest. That should be Pom not Porcello.

Since the last 4 games. Porcello blows Fister away in the last 4 starts, even though he has not looked very good in those 4 starts.

With 3 days off before game 1 and then 2 days off during the 5 game series, it's hard to imagine needing more than 11 pitchers (4 starters and 7 relievers). That being said, our starting 9 will not need to be PH for. We could PR for HRam, Pedey, Leon and Vaz. We could use defensive replacements for Devers and HRam, if he's at 1B, so maybe we don't need a 5 man bench as much as we might need that 8th RP'er- probably a lefty. Tough call. I guess with a sketchy 3 and 4 starters, we may need to go to the pen very early in Fenway and in back-to back games, so maybe you're right- an 8 man pen might be best.

Shows ho much I know. I felt the pen was our "weakest-not weak- link" going into 2017.

I wonder, if he needs surgery. He may forgo it, if the rehab time means he will miss part of 2018 and hurt his chances at vesting the option for 2019.

Theo, Ben, DD The draft Picks: Port: Lester >Cespedes> Porcello Theo: Pedey Ellsbury> Kopech> Sale Lowrie> Melancon> Holt Masterson & Hagadone> VMart> Barnes & Owens C Kelly> AGon> DLR/Webster>Miley>Smith Workman Ranaudo> R Ross Betts JBJ (Comp pick from losing Beltre) Shaw> Thornburg Barnes Swihart (Comp pick for Beltre) Owens N Ramirez Ben Maddox Marrero Johnson (Comp for Papelbon- Theo) Light (Comp for Papelbon)> Abad K Martin Kopech (Comp for Ellsbury-Theo) > C Sale Chavis Beni B Taylor DD J Groome, Dalbec, Chatham, Shawaryn Houck, Brannen, Netzer, Thompson, Scherff Some of the players we have now can be partially attributed to all three GMs or 2 of the 3. Even Port plays into our acquisition of Porcello. International Signings Theo Doubront> Marco Hernandez Bogaerts Margot> Kimbrel Ben Moncada > sale Castillo Devers Espinoza> Pomeranz Lin DD Velazquez Flores D Diaz L Mata Trades/Signings Theo Ben S Wright (L Anderson-Theo) Holt (Melancon & others) Hembree (Peavy Kelly (Lackey-Theo) ERod (Miller-Theo) HRam & Pablo Porcello (Cespedes R Ross (Ranaudo-Theo) DD Kimbrel (Margot, Guerra, Allen & Asuaje- Theo & Ben) Price Young Smith (Miley- Theo & Ben and Aro) Leon Pomeranz (Espinoza - Ben) Abad (Light) Moreland Boyer Fister Nunez, Reed & Davis As you can see, some of these acquisitions are very nuanced when considering who gets credit for us having them. All three GMs have a major role in the construction of today's roster.

8 of our 8 top returning hitters by 2016 PAs declined. Six of them by over 94 points. Our Cy Young winner is now our #5 starter. Wright and Thornburg were out injured all year due to dumb managerial decisions. Yes, I agree JF did an amazing job with our pen- the area I saw as our weakest link back in March. Yes, our starting pitching did well despite the loss of Price, Wright and the fantastic decline of Porcello. Yes, we played better with the additions of Devers, Nunez and Reed. Yes, we won the division 2 times in a row for the first time since 1915-1916. Yes, JF is the only Sox manager to win the division 3 times, but I do feel some context is needed. The 2013-2017 Yanks were not the Yanks that other managers were up against. We finished in last place in 2 of those 5 years. I hate to sound like a negative Nellie at a time when we should be celebrating, but hearing all the gushing over JF has brought me to the point of having to speak out for the "other side" of the argument.

We are not going to DFA HRam. It's highly unlikely we can find a trade partner either. HRam has been up and down for much of his last 6-7 years. I'm not giving up on the hope that he can have an up year in 2018. I'm not planning on it, and I think we need to plan on it not happening. I like the idea of signing JD Martinez to DH (maybe some 1B) and Nunez to cover 2B and DH. Under this plan, if HRam does have a good year, we can still play everyone. If not, we can cover it well.

No doubt, JF did a great job with the pitching staff. I wish he could go back to being our pitching coach. I do think it's wrong to portray JF as a mastermind who "overcame" the poor hitting and weak power of his team.If we are going to credit him for maximizing the pen production, and I feel he does deserve a lot of credit for that, then he should also be held accountable for the massive decline of our returning players on offense, the massive decline of Porcello, and the injury circumstances for Wright and maybe even Thornburg. We led the league in runs scored last year by over 100 runs. Our top 8 returning players by PAs in 2016 all declined-- most by over 100 points. Winning the division does lessen the impact of that fact, but glossing over such an incredible decline from those 8 and our Cy Young winner is doing a disservice to reality. Leon .845> .644 (-201) Holt .705> .520 (-185) Young .850> .713 (-137) HRam .866> .750 (-116) JBJ .835 > .729 (-106) Betts .897> .803 (-94) Pedey .825> .760 (-65) Bogey .802> .746 (-56) 6 of 8 declined by 94 points or more! Even Bogey's 56 point decline is not insignificant.

Several of our RHPs do very well with LHBs: OPS Against .333 Smith (just 6 PAs) -.582 in 2015 .572 Kimbrel .675 Reed .690 Kelly .720 Maddox I'm not worried. We could also go with 12 pitchers, even with 2 days off in the 5 game series, since I don't see us PH'ing much anyways.

Yes celebrating our own win tastes much better than celebrating another's loss.

34 years old is not too old. I still think there's a chance HRam hits over .800 next year. I'm not counting on it, but it is possible. I wouldn't bet on him ending up above .750. We're paying the guy, so he'll be back. I hope we sign JD Martinez and Nunez. That would allow us to squeeze out HRam's PAs, if he's stinking up the place...again. Nunez would also give us insurance at 2B. JD gives us the legitimate clean-up we desperately need. 1. Bogey SS 2. Betts RF 3. Beni LF 4. Martinez DH/1B 5. Devers 3B 6. Nunez 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH 7. Pedey 2B/DH or HRam 1B/DH 8. JBJ CF 9. Vaz C

RBI Leaders 102 Betts 90 Beni 79 Moreland 63 JBJ 62 HRam 62 Pedey Nobody else over 40 HR Leaders 24 Betts 23 HRam 22 Moreland 20 Beni 17 JBJ 10 Devers (+20 HRs on the farm) XBHs 72 Betts 56 Moreland 48 Beni 48 Bogey 47 HRam 39 JBJ 26 Pedey 25 Vaz 23 Devers

One game to go. We'll probably rest just about everyone. It's hard to imagine us winning the division without Devers and Nunez joining the club mid season. .892 Nunez (173 PAs) .821 Devers (236 PAs) Updated Sox OPS (300+ PAs): .803 Betts .776 Beni .769 Moreland .760 Pedey .749 HRam .746 Bogey .737 Vaz .729 JBJ (160-299 PAs) .713 Young .644 Leon .603 Marrero .520 Holt

Odds of winning the World Series Westgate (9/18 update) 9:4 CLE 5:2 LAD 5:1 HOU 7:1 WSH 8:1 CHI 10:1 BOS 12:1 NYY 14:1 AZ Bookmaker.EU 3:1 CLE 7:2 LAD 9:2 HOU 15:2 CHI 8:1 BOS 8:1 WSH 10:1 NYY FiveThirtyEight 27% CLE 16% LAD 15% HOU 12% WSH 11% CHI 7% BOS 6% NYY 3% AZ Odds Shark +300 LAD +350 CLE +500 HOU +700 WSH +800 BOS & CHI +1400 NYY & AZ

It's no love fest for Porcello. This looks pretty scary, too, don't you think? Last 4 starts: IP ER 5.1 3 5.1 3 2.0 5 4.0 6 Total 16.2 IP 17 ER (9.00+ ERA) 24 H 7 BB Those were Fister's numbers. Should I claim you guys are on a Fister love fest? FYI, Porcello's last 4 starts: 22 IP 11 ERs (4.50 ERA) 21 H 9 BB Not great but better than Doug F's numbers. Plus, the guy did win the Cy Young last year. I think there's a better chance he somehow comes up with a gem than Fister.

Now is not the time to rag on anyone, but overall JF is not a part of the reason we won, except for how he handled the staff, which is no minor thing, I might add. It's my opinion just like it's your opinion. We had some tough injuries to overcome but not anything abnormal. 7 out of 7 of our top returning regular everyday players declined and you count this as a plus for JF? He got us to win despite "weak hitting". Like it couldn't possibly be any of his fault we hit so poorly and inconsistently. My "no fire" comment was made a while back. I have seen more fire the last month or longer. I still don't see as much enthusiasm as other teams or past winning Sox teams, but I clearly have said several times that "fire" is not needed to win a ring. I know, you weren't talking to me in your whole post, but I, for one, have not been critical of his every move. I was a big Tito fan until he lost control. I hardly ever criticized anything Tito did. I was the last to call for Bobby V's firing. I'm not the type of poster that habitually criticizes managerial decisions. I have my own line-up philosophy, but I've always been careful to say I don't claim to know more than any manager we've had. Heck, I even defended Grady Little for leaving Pedro in. I could be way off base, but I projected a 100 win team. Our bats were shockingly inconsistent and weak. Our fundamentals were off-the-charts awful. Our pitching and defense carried us. Aggressiveness helped. JF deserves credit for squeezing the most out of a pen I felt was out "weakest-not weak- link" going into the year. Our starters did well in the absence of Price and Wright, but Porcello bombed out badly. We clinched tonight. Let's be happy and enjoy the hard fight we won. Let's hope we keep on winning series after series and bring home a ring this fall.

I'm not happy with the choice. He's better than Fister. We may have to bring Price in early.

Holt only played because Pedey couldn't. It wasn't some swamee move by JF. That was Holt's best game all year. I've been really hard on him all year. I'm glad he has looked good recently. I've given up on Young (maybe the last one to do so). I'm not too high on davis right now, except as a PR'er (for Pedey, HRam, Moreland or Leon). That makes Holt a strong candidate to make the playoff roster as our 4th OF'er and depth man. I never thought I'd be saying that. I'm not going to say anything bad about JF on a night like tonight. The team won the division and the crap shoot begins soon. I'm happy I'll be at the first two playoff games in Houston. Go SOX!!!!

Pom is not really a hard thrower. They all look different enough to be the best 3 we can put out there. Fister is my 5th choice behind #4 Porcello.

I go with... 1. Sale 2. Pom (day off) 3. ERod 4. Porcello (up 2-1/ Sale (down 2-1) (day off) 5. Sale or Pom Fister is not even on my first series roster. My 7 man pen is... Kimbrel Price Smith Reed Kelly Barnes leaning Workman, but maybe Maddox or Scott

Our post season pen... Kimbrel Price Smith Reed Kelly Barnes one from: Workman/Maddox/Scott/Fister/Hembree/Abad Assuming we go with 11 pitchers (4 starters & 7 RP'ers). 4 starters: Sale, Pom, ERod & Porcello

The Astros hit righties as well as lefties, so we should go with out best. OPS vs LHPs: .821 vs RHPs: .827 Their RH's batters hit righties better: vs RHP as RHB: .851 vs LHP as RHB: .844 Is almost dead even, so I don't think we should change anything based on how well the Astros do vs lefties or righties.

The Yanks got closer than I expected, but I'm glad we can save Sale for game 1. Pom looks primed for game 2. Game 3 will be at home: Erod or Porcello? I'd go ERod. Maybe Price can give us 2-3 innings, if needed. Maybe by the World Seried, he can go 3-4 innings.

Interesting.