moonslav59

But, why replace a known starter who has already shown what he can do in the AL East? Wright had a very similar first half as Pom, but he did it against the best division in MLB. He did against teams with a DH. He did it while pitching half his games in one of baseball's best hitter's park while Pom was doing against teams with no DH in one of baseball's best pitcher's park. I could see if we had a guy who was an unknown, then sure, give Pom a chance to prove what he can do, but Wright has already shown he can do it. He just needs to prove he can do it over a full season. What worries me about Pom is that even if he does great out of the gate, he may run out of steam and not be helpful for the playoffs. It will not be easy to try and rest him during the season, if he is doing very well. Wright shouldn't need rest. That's why starting with Wright makes more sense. If ERod is injured, then this argument is moot.

I have high hopes fo Pom as a starter, but I have very slightly higher hopes for Wright, and I think putting a knuckleballer in the rotation greatly aids the guy starting the game after him. Pom's history as a reliever vs Wright's history greatly unbalances the choice, in my opinion. Pom's durability and stamina also plays into the choice to start him off in the pen to limit his total IP over the season. However, I'm fine with any of the 2. The third guy will get his chances.

I would too, but I feel even stronger about what Wright's got. A healthy ERod is ahead of both, in my book.

He's a better fit than Smith in terms of what we needed and the numbers support the decision. Despite how good we all felt about HanRam's adjustment to 1B last year, he was still a negative defender when compared to the league norm. His injury history also begged the question: why not move him to DH? I actually think the Sox planned (the day we signed him) on moving him to DH once Papi retired. It just makes too much sense. Keeping his "head in the game" By playing him at 1B vs some or most LHPs (as Young DHs when HanRam does not) will also keep him sharp at 1B for when he needs to play there in NL parks. Seth Smith plays OF and plays it badly. We had little need for a bad defensive OF'er that would essentially be just a DH vs RHPs. Signing a 1B or 1B/OF type player was the obvious right choice. There were several other choices I'd put way ahead of Smith (B Moss or A Lind to name 2), but Moreland offered the defensive excellence at 1B and the hope of a decent bat vs RHPs that none of the others provided. wRC+ 2015-2016 combined vs RHPs 143 EE 141 Bautista 125 Trumbo 119 P Alvarez 117 A Lind & K Morales 106 Morrison 105 Moreland 105 C Carter 102 B Moss 96 T Shaw 92 Napoli wOBA .346 Alvarez .344 Lind .333 Moreland .331 Carter .324 Moss .323 Morrison .321 T Shaw .312 Napoli UZR/150 at 1B (35 with 750+ innings '15-'16): 3 Moreland +7.7 10 EE +4.1 20 Napoli -0.1 22 Lind -1.0 30 Morrison -3.1 33 Carter -5.1 35 Alvarez -26.4 If you lower the innings to 700: 1 T Shaw +15.2 (out of 42 qualified)

The three years differential happens to be the most crucial 3 years on the age curve dynamic. 32 to 35 is when most players show steady decline or drop off a cliff near 34-35-36 years old. Fangraphs has these numbers on Smith that clearly show he is in decline and already under his career norm for the last two years: Last 3 year trend (age 31-32-33). He turns 35 in Sept. wRC+: 131> 113> 110 (career 113) wOBA: .357> .331> .331 (career .343) Baseball Reference has this: OPS+: 134> 116> 108 (career 112) Since Smith has always had a "pitcher's" home field (OAK, SD, SEA) choosing stats that adjust for this all show a decline. Maybe moving to BAL will improve his OPS and SLG numbers, but I wouldn't expect and increase in any of the 3 stats I just provided. Moreland's numbers have been all over the map with some massive swings up and down. Choosing a 1 year decline to try and show his trend is downwards is not really fair. His age is also within the range of prime, so there should be no age-related downward projection either. Look, I wouldn't bet on Moreland equallng or bettering Smith in 2 of the 3 stats I used above in 2017, but I think there's a good chance he does, and as you pointed out, the defensive value Moreland brings to the Sox infield, and the steep decline in Smith's defense makes the Sox choice the right one. The money differential between trading Buc for Smith vs trading Buch for no cost added and signing Moreland instead is icing on the cake.

But, the exact same could and should be said about Wright and a healthy ERod. Since all 3 look deserving of a starting roll, to me, the deciding factor should then be who makes the better "swing man" of long relief/spot starter type? That answer to that question is barely debatable. It is clearly Pomeranz. I do not think saving face from the Espi-Pom trade is a significant factor in the decision. If they pick Pom, it will be because they think he's a better starter than Wright.

He's post prime and on a steep trend downwards. He might get a little uptick, but I don't think there's a good chance for a big year like 2014.

Yup, and certainly Smith could do much better than Moreland, but Smith turns 35 this season and has seen his OPS+ drop from his career high of 134 to 116 and 108 the last two years. Moreland turns 32 this season. His trend has been up and down with no clear direction. He had the same OPS+ as Smith in 2015 (116). It's not unreasonable to expect a big uptick from Moreland as he plays half his games in Fenway.

MLBTR reports... there would have been a higher loss had we signed EE than we thought. Money and the potential loss of amateur talent were key reasons the Red Sox didn’t seriously pursue Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Getting under the luxury tax threshold will save the Red Sox money both now and in future seasons, particularly given the possibility that they could reset their threshold this season, thus limiting their penalties in the future. Also, the new CBA calls for teams that exceed the threshold and sign a player who declined a qualifying offer to forfeit their second- and fifth-round draft picks and portions of their international bonus pools.

I think you secretly liked Buch much more than his WAR and projected WAR suggested. I don't blame you. It's his contract year, and he still has the upside potential few others have. I think the Sox wanted HanRam at DH vs RHPs with Young vs LHPs. I think that's a good idea. Keep HR healthy and maybe avoid injury. I won't be surprised if Moreland hits as well as Smith this season.

They're moving Price to closer. LOL!

Yes, it's a game not a sport. Like throwing a frisbee or playing catch.

You could have had Buch for someone slightly better than the guy we got, if you would mind the extra money (over Gallardo). Gallardo is more reliable in terms of not getting hurt. I'd take Buch too, but I think Seth Smith was not a good fit for the Sox.

So then walking in the park is now a sport?

Well, 5-9 Mel Ott blasted over 500 HRs.

Hank Aaron was under 6 feet and weighed under 180 for much of his career.

Yaz is not the only "little guy" to show some power. Beni had 14 XBHs in just 105 ABs last year. Some were "leg 2Bs" but still... He's also had these numbers in just 570 minor league ABs: 20 HRs 16 3Bs 38 2Bs 74 XBHs! Add to that 26 sBs and this guy should be on 2B or beyond a lot. His last year at Arkansas, he his 20 HRs and 15 2B+3B in just 226 ABs!

That's because it's not really a sport. Ohhhhh NOOOooooo! You dih-int!!!!

Seth Smith to BAL. Gallardo to SEA. Pretty close to the Buch for Smith trade harmony kept trying to suggest we might be interested in. I guess BAL is paying $2M (the buyout amount on his option). $11M for $7M. BAL saves $4M. I like saving $13.5M with out Buch trade better.

I know, right? This time of year sucks for sports, especially big baseball fans.

Wright and Pom were both recovering from injuries. We traded Buch to avoid wasting time and money on an unreliable, yet highly talented, pitcher.

Exactly, but the good thing is, he's always heated up at some point at each level. His fielding growth was a big step forward according to scouts.

That seems about right. That timetable matches up pretty well with the time Pablo may switch to 1B or DH (or both), assuming he's not gotten bloated up again. DD did get one thing right when it came to choosing which prospects to keep. The three top prospects he kept all play a position that will have the earliest openings due to attrition. 1B/DH: 1 year (Moreland 1B & Young DH), 2-3 years (HanRam), 3 years (Pablo) 3B: 3 years (Pablo) SP: 2 years (Pomeranz), 2 or 6 years (Price), 3 years (Porcello) Best 3 prospects: 1B: Travis (or Pablo to 1B or DH-- Longhi or a converted 3B prospect)) 3B: Devers (Dalbec-Ockimey-Chatham-Chavis) SP: Groome (Owens-Johnson)

MLBTR... Right-hander Zach Stewart has agreed to a minor league deal with the Orioles, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (the news was first reported by Korean media outlet Naver Sports — hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Once a well-regarded pitching prospect in the Reds organization, the 30-year-old Stewart is now a well-traveled veteran who will hope to return to the Majors for the first time since 2012 this coming season.

He took a huge step forward on defense, so I think you're right. If Pablo sucks again on D and is not very good on O, we may see Devers called up earlier, just for a defensive gain with upside or developing MLB O.