moonslav59

I remember Barry Bonds saying he wouldn't even talk with Boston when he was a FA.

We fans do make it difficult for any struggling stars to want to stick around town, but Price started out so poorly last year, I think the perception of a big let down got firmly planted in many fans' brains. He had a 6.00 ERA after 8 starts. Much of that had to do with an 8 ER in 3.2 IP start vs TB, but he also had 3 other starts with 5 or more ERs in that stretch. It took him to game 12 to get under 5.00. He was still over 4.50 on July 28th. Unfortunately, perception is a big part of fans' attitudes. You're right though, I think if we cut these guys a little more slack, maybe more players would want to come to Boston. I won't even get into the argument about whether added pressure from the fans and media actually makes it harder for some players to recover from a slump.

I agree, but I don't think Devers needs time at AAA to be promoted to Boston late season. Remember, Moncada and Beni didn't even start at AA last year, as Devers will, and both made the jump over AAA to the bigs.

I disagree with this point made in the article: Furthermore, any need for Swihart in left field was going to be temporary with Andrew Benintendi expecting to debut later that season. At the time of Swihart's move to LF, there was not an expectation of Beni being promoted later in the year, in fact at the deadline, we tried to get Beltran, so we wouldn't have to call up Beni. The guy ends up picking Swihart as the starting catcher after a good breakdown of each catcher's attributes and weaknesses, but I can't see my self going with the weakest defender of the bunch.

Well said, but I'd put ERod slightly ahead of Pomeranz, and since Pom has extensive experience in the pen, that's the way I'd go. It's a close call all around, and in my opinion, the two doing the best will end up with more starts.

That's about what I might expect.

I was betting on 1.5 at about 100 IP. I'd take the over on 2.0 at 200 IP for sure.

Our pen should be no worse than average. It could be top 10, especially if Smith can contribute meaningful innings or others step it up. Hopefully, there will be less meaningful innings needed with our pen this year.

I would note that FanGraphs Depth Charts project a combined 2017 WAR of 11.7 for Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Jean Segura, who last year combined for 20.7 fWAR. Regression is likely but the degree of regression is a topic for debate. I would note that they project a 16.4 WAR from Betts, Pedey, JBJ & Bogey combined, when they put up a 22.5 WAR last year. All but Pedey are on the rise curve to prime.

They only gave him 97 IP, so that's part of the reason for the low WAR projection. Many projections are lower than last year's numbers. That might be another part of it. No sustained high WAR numbers over the years is maybe another factor. I like Wright a lot. I'd bet the over on this projection. I might even bet the over on a 1.5 projection, if he looks healthy in ST'ing.

Good assessment. I think there's a good chance a few of the bolded guys will be doing well enough to bring you even more young talent.

I agree on the pen as the apparent weakest point. BTW, weakest does not mean weak. I'd put 3B second. I'm not worried about catching with 3 choices in the fold. fangraphs has these WAR projections for the Guardians: 4.9 Kluber 4.5 Carrasco 3.3 Salazar 1.6 Bauer 1.4 Tomlin 0.7 Clebinger 0.5 Cooney 0.3 Merritt 0.2 Anderson Pen 1.2 C Allen 2.7 Miller 0.5 Otero 0.4 B Shaw 0.4 McAllister Sox 4.8 Sale 4.5 Price 3.6 Porcello 2.0 Pomeranz 1.7 Rodriquez 0.9 Wright Pen 1.5 Kimbrel 1.1 Kelly 0.4 Thornburg 0.4 Ross 0.3 Smith 0.2 Barnes 0.1 Elias 22.6 Guardians 21.8 Red Sox

I'd bet on Beni, if they have equal PAs.

4 deep plus Holt and Swihart in an emergency. We're deep enough, but it does seem strange that there is nobody at AAA or AA that looks promising. Lake is probably all we might ever need beyond the 6.

I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm for Beni. I really love this kid!! I realize there could be some bumps along the road, but I look at it this way, our LF defense was not a plus last year, and Beni should at least improve that area. The offense does not need to be all that great to improve on last year's LF numbers: .268 14 70 (.759 OPS) Here's last year's crew: PA Player OPS 222 Holt .759 190 Young .779 102 Beni .856 58 Brentz .615 51 Swihart .739 (If you take away Beni's 2016 numbers from LF, the differential widens. Looking at other positions of change and doubt, there is some room for optimism as well: Catcher: .665 OPS in 2016 271 Leon .840 181 Vaz .584 111 Hanigan .449 34 Holaday .454 23 Swihart .669 While it's easy to envision Leon "coming back to earth", I also see it being easy to envision a vast improvement on replacing Hanigan and Holaday's 145 PAs of about .450 OPS offense. If Z Vaz could bring up his numbers from .584 to .650 or better, or if Swihart gets more PAs than 2016, we could easily see an improvement on .665, even with a 150 point drop by Leon. 3B .686 in 2016 Our 3B numbers were about the worst in MLB. It's hard to imagine getting worse, but it is possible. Replacing Shaw, Hill and Moncada with Pablo and maybe more PAs at 3B from Holt, Rutledge and Hernandez could be a big plus. 392 Shaw .753 119 Hill .519 39 Rutledge .572 38 B Holt .645 27 Hernandez .927 18 Moncada .572 7 Marrero .286 5 Pablo .200 DH 1.045 and 1B .807 With HanRam likely to DH vs RHPs and play 1B vs LHPs, Young to DH vs LHPs and Moreland to play 1B vs RHPs, we should expect a significant decline. However, it may not be as vast as we might imagine. Nobody can replace Papi, but we should have much better defense at 1B and an essential platoon by Young and Moreland may surprise many. Young has been one of baseball's best hitters vs LHPs, but we're not really adding him to the line-up. Beni's addition is actually what should be counted vs LHPs, as Young should DH not play LF vs lefties. Moreland has had some decent success vs RHPs, but he's been inconsistent and is far far below Papi's numbers vs RHPs. If we lose .200 at DH and HanRam gives us the same, I guess we can count on about an overall .100 to .150 point loss at these two positions combined. That's a lot, but a full year from Beni and a bunch of kids getting closer to prime, maybe we can end up scoring about the same as 2016.

Our 2016 bench was one of our strengths last year. Leon was our 3rd string catcher. T Shaw did a decent job as a back-up 3Bman. Young did very well as our 4th OF'er. Beni did great as our 7th OF'er. Holt, Hernandez and Rutledge made up for A Hill's poor performance, but remember, Hill was not on our opening day depth chart. Yeah, Hanigan, Moncada and a couple other guys did poorly, but overall, our bench was a shining aspect of our team. Also, Wright was our 6th starter and was our first half ace (on paper). We lost Carson Smith for the year and Kimbrel & Uehara for significant times. While maybe Barnes and Hembree did not do great, they did a decent job stepping into roles not envisioned at season's start. Ross and Scott did very well. This year's bench includes one of Young or Moreland plus a returning Holt, Vaz and Rutledge. With Swihart, Sam Travis, Hernandez and Marrero on the farm, I think our bench will be fine in 2017.

At this point in time, what is the Sox weakest area? A) 3B Pen C) Starter depth D) Catching E) other

Minor league deal would be fine.

Most players benefit from playing in Fenway, Mookie included. My point was that this article only addressed the HRs Fenway given by Fenway, but it's my guess is he had at least 1 or 2 taken away by high walls and a deep CF and Cf-RF gap.

Again, I've never said he's not a choke or that his losses might be a result of tightening up when it matters. My point is the sample size is too small to call anyone a choke. One could view that tweet as a sign of him being able to joke about it, and having a relaxed outlook.

The article does not mention how the Monster can and does turn some line drive HRs into DBLs (and singles) high off the wall. How many HRs to CF-RF were taken away by our enormous right-CF gap or the triangle area and extra high CF wall?

I never claimed small sample sizes have NO relevance. I just don't make definitive judgments about a person or player based on tiny scattered sample sizes. Also, the question at hand was about adding 2-3 great starts to Price's sample size to possibly change his designation (by others not me) as a "choke". Price has 9 GS'd in the playoffs with 55 IP as a starter. Let's say 3 more starts at 7 IP each, he'd be at about 75 IP and 12 career playoff starts. Schilling has 19 career starts and over 133 IP in the playoffs. That's almost double the IP sample size Price would be at after 3 more starts. I still think 133 IP and 19 scattered starts over a 15 year period is still not enough to make a definitive judgment, but it's a hell of a lot close to a legitimate sample size than Price's. Also, not making a definitive judgement does mean I'm not okay with saying, "Schilling has done a great job as a playoff pitcher." David Ortiz has played in 85 playoff games. I would not definitively judge any player over a half season's worth of games, especially scattered over several years. Papi has done great. I've never seen a player deliver in the clutch more than him. Having a slightly higher playoffs OPS than regular season OPS is not easy over 369 PAs. In no way am I taking anything away from his achievements by saying his sample size is still small. He's done great. That greatness was enormously important and essential to our championships. Sample size arguments do not deny great accomplishments or poor performances. Sample sizes are just part of the context. Papi was great. Schill was great. Price has been pretty bad. Nobody is denying that. My beef comes when someone wants to call Price a choke, basically judging his mental make-up, based on just 9 starts scattered over several years.

Not on the 40 man roster, but I could see us dumping Brentz and adding Jr at some point.

Agreed. I'd rather have Swihart before Holt, if we needed someone for more than a few days stretch.

Yes, I was talking about next year and beyond as well. Just because the luxury tax rate will be reset, it won't mean Castillo's contract is much more attractive. $10.4M at 50% is $15.6M, but at 20%, it's still $12.5M. I'm not sure the $3M differential will make a big impact on the decision to add Castillo to the 40 man roster or just find another de Aza type at a fraction of the cost. Even though we lose Young, Moreland and Abad, the arb raises will just about eat all those savings up. Hopefully Devers can replace Moreland (Pablo to 1B?) and Swihart can replace Young, but my guess is, we add a 1B/OF type player. I just don't see us ever calling up Castillo for more than a few weeks in an emergency, and then DFA'ing him again. For us to add him for a full season, he's going to have to prove he can earn that money. Even with an 1.000 OPS at AAA this year, I'm still not sure that would be enough for management to bring him up long term. I suppose, if we intend to bring him up for a 3-4 week stretch while an OF'er recovers from injury, and he does very well while up, then things could change. I think those are long odds.