moonslav59

Sorry. You never mentioned HanRam, so I assumed you meant Papi. You are right. Without HRam, our middle of the line-up is much weaker. We still have Betts, but nobody else with 30+ HR power, except maybe JBJ (who is out until maybe Friday).

Maybe even 50-60.

If Hernandez ends up replacing Pablo, how much power will we lose? 8-10 HRs over a full season? While I agree replacing Papi is going to force the team to redefine itself, I wouldn't say we are "without the big bat in the middle of the line-up." We have these players returning: Betts .318 31 113 HRam .286 30 111 J.B.Jr .267 26 87 Bogey .294 21 89 Not to mention these 2016 hitters pro-rated to 650 PAs: Young .276 25 70 S Leon .310 15 80 I'm not trying to minimize the loss of MLB's top OPS guy last year, but we still have some top quality hitters on this year's team. Here's how our top 4 hitters placed among all MLB batters with 600+ PAs last year: #15 Betts .897 #24 HRam .866 #31 J B Jr .835 #39 Pedey .825 #47 Bogey .802 I'm not sure any other teams have 3 in the top 30 and 5 players in the top 50. The middle of our order should not be a concern.

It seems like every one of Pablo's few hits have counted.

Yeah, he might go 8.

They don't "stink". They've just pitched like stink in small sample sizes.

Pablo was never a big HR guy either. I wish Marco was a better defender at 3B, but he might be our best 2nd option.

At least he's had a couple of big hits.

This is... Chris Freakin' Sale ...we're talking about.

Plus, Bogey only has about 30 PAs. I do like the idea of Bogey in the 2 hole for the long run, but I want Beni leading off--assuming he proves he belongs.

I know he's there, but he's off my radar right now.

It's... Chris Freakin' Sale !

He won't. Next game 7 IP 2 ER

Remember, this was my "Optimist Chapter" ! My "Pessimist Chapter" might exceed the character limit on a post.

True enough, and if we're able to just keep Sale, Betts and assuming Price is still producing in 4-5 years, we may be able to be at about .500 even with a bunch of scrubs filling out 10-15 slots on the 25 man roster.

Small sample sizes are "valid" but not necessarily meaningful. I did the math: take away Sale and our two worst starts, and we have this: Totals: 35 ER/55.2 IP (5.66 ERA) - Sale 2 ER/14.2 IP -Porcello's bad start: 8ER/4.1 IP -Wright's bad start: 8ER/1.1 IP New Total: 17 ER/25.1 IP (6.04 ERA) Just take away the 2 bad starts and keep Sale's 2 starts included, and we have: 19 ER/50 IP (3.42 ERA) 3.42 would rank 10th, although if you took away everyone's worst two starts, it wouldn't look that great. One good thing: the Guardians have the worst starter ERA in all of MLB at 6.58, and they look to be the AL's strongest Sox contender on paper.

For a while I had Owens ranked higher on my list than soxprospects.com. I really liked him early on. I've just about given up on him now, but it's nice to see him doing better.

Losing HanRam & Pablo's contracts the same year Sale, Bogey & Porcello are up for extensions makes keeping 2 of the 3 reasonably possible. There's a chance to keep all three, if we have already filled the shoes of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Young, Moreland and Ross from within the system. That might be a lot to ask for, but only Kimbrel has a major role right now. I could see "the cliff" being 4 years away, when we will already almost certainly be significantly over the luxury tax but not at the $20M over penalty stage. After 2020, we have these players coming off the books but needing replacement or extension: Betts JBJ Wright Smith Vaz Leon None of these guys are "fluff" like Pablo will have been the year before. Take Betts or JBJ plus Vaz and Leon out of the previous year's projected line-up and what do we have? 2019: 1) Beni LF 2) Bogey SS 3) Betts RF 4) Devers 3B 5) JBJ CF 6) Pedey 2B 7) Travis 1B 8) Dalbec DH 9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny 2020: 1) Beni CF 2) Travis 1B 3) Bogey SS 4) JBJ RF 5) Devers 3B 6) Pedey 2B 7) Dalbec LF 8) Swihart C 9) Hernandez DH or, take out JBJ and insert Betts. Yikes! We'll need a lot to go right for 2020's team to compete for a ring.

Somebody do the math: if we are subtracting Sale's 2 starts, why not subtract Wright's and Porcello's one bad start each and show the new numbers? Our rotation is going to be fine.

His biggest issue is BBs. Even with this nice start, he has 6 BB in 11IP. Until he deals with that issue, he'll remain off my radar.

We've heard talk of an impending cliff the club is heading towards after the 2019 or 2020 season. Here's an optimistic view of what might be to come: Players lost to free agency (and hopeful in-system replacements)- w/luxury tax budget number lost: After 2017: Young $6.5M> Blake Swihart (3rd catcher/5th OF'er/DH) Moreland $5.5M> Travis Shaw (1B) Abad> Several options: Taylor, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez +++ After 2018: Kimbrel $13M> Thornburg, Smith or someone else steps up Pomeranz $Arb > Groome J Kelly $Arb > Several options R Ross $Arb > several options Let's assume the salaries lost cover arb raises over these two years, and we don't have to replace anyone with a costly free agent, especially Kimbrel & Pomeranz. Maybe big "ifs", but let's go with it. After 2019: Ramirez $22M > Dalbec/Hernandez Porcello $20.6M Sandoval $19M (including $5M buyout) > Devers Chris Sale $13.5M X Bogaerts $Arb Thornburg $Arb B Holt $Arb Rutledge $Arb Maybe the loss of HanRam and Pablo can pay for the extensions of Sale & Bogaerts, but Porcello probably has to go due to hefty arb raises being paid out at this time. Let's assume all we lose is Porcello. This could be the 2020 roster framework: $31M Price $31M Sale $25M Bogey $14M Pedroia $18M 3rd of 3 Arb Betts $15M 4/4 Arb JBJ $10M 3/4 Arb ERod $8M 3/3 Arb Wright This is about $150M for just 8 players. Others still under team control: Smith 3/3, Barnes 2/3, Leon 4/4, Vaz 3/3, Hembree 2/3, Elias 3/4 Beni, Swihart, Hernandez, Scott, Workman, Johnson, Owens, Selsky, Taylor, NRamirez, Martin, Marrero, Ysla Rotation: C Sale, Price, ERod, Wright Groome Bullpen: Smith, Barnes, Taylor, Workman, Johnson, Owens, Lakins/Cosart 1) Beni LF 2) Bogey SS 3) Betts RF 4) Devers 3B 5) JBJ CF 6) Pedey 2B 7) Travis 1B 8) Dalbec DH 9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny I'm not sure this is a "cliff", but it probably needs some work. Plus, it needs Devers, Travis and Groome to all come through.

He already is part of the current great team. I love the trade...always have. I've been begging for a trade like this for years.

I'm guessing Abad goes when Thornburg joins the club, if not, when C Smith does, unless we have more pen issues.

We're not going to cut Pablo, and the odds are he'll be with us next year. Pablo would "solve" the problem of Moreland leaving (1B or DH vs RHPs). We could use HanRam-Travis-Pablo at 1B while one DHs. vs RHPs: 1B: Pablo DH: HanRaam vs LHPs: 1B: Travis DH: HanRam Devers or Hernandez or both would have to be good enough to play 3B for this to happen. That could be a big if for 2018.

Many of our great players came in trades involving highly touted pitching prospects. Schilling, Beckett, AGon and many many more.