moonslav59

Kimmi, I know we both agree on a lot of things and think we went too far trading away too much of the farm over DD's reign, but would you be terribly upset, if we traded Ockimey and someone like Callahan or another rule 5 candidate for Frazier or Lowrie? I don't see it as hurting our future enough to outweigh improving our 3B position from belwo or at replacement level to average 3b production and defense. I hate trading for rentals, but trades like the Ziegler trade last year are worth it, to me.

We had a good chance at winning it all last year, and DD kept it somewhat minor after he traded for Pom before the deadline. He traded scraps for Ziegler, A Hill and Abad. Was the hole in the rotation that necessitated the Pom trade as big as the hole we have at 3B right now in DD's eyes? Maybe. Maybe he will trade the equivalent of Espi (Groome, Devers or Travis) for a better 3Bman than I think we need, and I'll probably complain, if he does, but I'm holding out hope we can win in the next 3 years and still keep our big 3 prospects.

If you think he will keep this up, I have some ocean front property for sale in Arizona... BTW, fangraphs has him at 0.0 before today's big game.

No 34 year old pitcher is worth $31M for 4 years, even if some clown GM offers him more.

...By the time FA comes about, Sale could be worth $30 mil plus, Bogey $25-$30 mil plus, JBJ $20 mil plus, and Betts $30 mil plus. When you add in Price at $31 mil and Pedey still on the books, you are looking at $160 mil tied up in 6 guys, with two of them being past their primes. Long story short is you are going to lose some of this talent and with your farm being traded down and your draft pools shrinking as your team plays well, there is a strong chance for another rebuild. You just need to hope you can snag a title or two in the meantime. Let's assume Price stays, as he almost certainly will. he should still be a decent pitcher from ages 34-37. Maybe not worth $31M but perhaps $25M year 4 to $10-15M year 7. It's not a total loss like Pablo is right now. Let's say we can get one of JBJ, Betts or Bogey (or even Sale) to extend before free agency. We give them security and maybe a little more up front money at the expense of a little off the back end. They end up making the same money as they would by waiting for free agency, but we benefit by slightly lowering the luxury tax cost by including arb year levels in the total contract. This might be easier said than done, so let's assume we can't get anyone to bite. Assume we lose Pablo after 2019 and HRam after 2018 or 2019. We don't replace Porcello (after 2019), but maybe we keep Pom at a reasonable cost. (luxury tax dollars) $31M Price 5 more years after this (through 2022) $14M Pedey 4 more years (through 2021) I guess we could trade Pedey at some point, but I'm assuming we have $45M tied up for these two for a long time. That leaves... Pomeranz (payday 2019) Kimbrel (payday 2019) Sale (payday 2020) Bogey (payday 2020) Porcello (payday 2020) Bradley (payday 2021) Betts (payday 2021) The overlap of Pedey and Betts/JBJ is only one year. maybe we bite the bullet taht year and take a mega penalty on the luxury tax and the $20M or over extreme penalty. Maybe not. Estimate paydays: 2019: (3+ year deals) $18M Kinbrell $16M Pomeranz (assuming he does well and earns this) 2020: $33M Sale $27M Bogey (Let Porcello go) 2021: $33M Betts $23M JBJ That's $195M for 8 players. The luxury tax goes up and we can go over by $19M. that still leave some money for fill-in players and productive, promoted prospects. It's doubtful we keep all 8, so let's say we trade or lose Bogey or Pedey, or we let Kimbrel or Pom walk. Maybe we'd get it down to $180M or so for 7. Maybe that's not doable either and we have to let another go, so we're at about $160M/6 players. We'd still have a nice core to stay out of last place, and maybe these international signings can be ready by 2022 or 2023. It's going to be very very hard, and that's why I'm a "cliff dweller", but I don't see us being so desperate and so projected to be "out of it" from 2020 or 2021 to 2023 or 2024 that we want to trade Devers or Groome for a slightly better chance at a ring this year.

I've said over an over that I seriously doubt he opts out, but if he does, it is possible for Price to get what he wants (more money or more years) elsewhere, and for us to benefit by him leaving. I could care less if some other GM values him at $40M, if he leaves us at age 34 and we save $31M, we gain not lose, or at least could gain.

True, but if a player is playing SS at a decent defensive level on the farm, his value is higher than a 2Bman or 3Bman. Teams in need of a 2Bman will often look for a SS on the farm to convert to 2B (or 3B or OF). You make a good point though. Nobody fools anyone much anymore.

slav, you are going to have a VERY expensive team, especially with guys who are starting to see real money. Mookie Betts is comfortable playing on 1 year deals until he hits FA. Bogaerts is entirely comfortable playing on 1 yr deals as well Bradley already made $3.6mil and with him doing well this yr, he is in line for a really nice payday this December as well. Sale's options end after 2019. By the time FA comes about, Sale could be worth $30 mil plus, Bogey $25-$30 mil plus, JBJ $20 mil plus, and Betts $30 mil plus. When you add in Price at $31 mil and Pedey still on the books, you are looking at $160 mil tied up in 6 guys, with two of them being past their primes. Long story short is you are going to lose some of this talent and with your farm being traded down and your draft pools shrinking as your team plays well, there is a strong chance for another rebuild. You just need to hope you can snag a title or two in the meantime That's the main reason I'd love for Price to opt out. I doubt it happens, but if it does, it would be good for us for at least two reasons. 1) It will mean he pitched very well for us from now to the end of 2018. 2) It will mean we can keep at least one more of the guys you listed as having pending mega deals. One in his prime- not past it. Losing Porcello, HRam and panda will help us keep another one or two, assuming we can repalce them with in house cheap solutaions like Devers, Travis and Groome. If we reset the luxury tax this year, we can afford to go $19M over for a few years without losing draft picks or slot money through penalties. $19M might be close to enough to keep JBJ. Plus, the luxury tax limit goes up a little every year. BTW, we are currently under the luxury limit despite paying 7 guys close to $140M. 3 of them are not doing all that well (Pablo, HRam and Porcello), so $160M tied up in 6 productive players could be doable considering the above changing factors I listed. I'm not saying we can keep all 6. I am a "cliff dweller". I do think we can stay competitive beyond the 3-4 year window, if Price opts out, or we get exceptional play out of Devers, Travis, Groome and maybe Pom replaces Porcello well enough as our number 2 or 3 starter going forward (at less than Porcello cost).

Not really, there is the trade market and the farm market, but we are talking what determines value. just because some other team offers Price $33M a year, does not mean we lost out by not keeping him at $31M. That's my point, and I think it is valid. I respect those who feel value is determined by the highest bidder, but losing Price to his opt out can be a win-win for us and the team that gets him, assuming he earnes $33M- which is highly unlikely based on past big FA signings. The vast majority don't come close to earning their salaries, so I'm not sure why you trust big spending GMs who have long histories of failing with these type signings to "set the true value" (towards helping a team win) of a player, but to each his own.

I do consider slumps and hot streaks and most recent numbers to some extent, but not as much as you do. While Bogey has been struggling, his OBP is still .340 over the last 14 days. With a day of rest today, I expect him to continue being a top 3 OBP player on our team. bat him 1st or second. If he continues to slump, then move him down and maybe put Beni, Young or even HRam or JBJ up 2nd.

We won in 2004, 2007 and 2013 without "damning the future". Trading away Devers, Travis or Groome or 2 or 3 of them won't guarantee a win anyways. We could trade for Machado and Verlander and still lose now and for the next 5 years plus. I think we just need to upgrade 3B to average, and maybe we get a 5th starter type, if ERod looks sketchy or Porcello doesn't show signs of improvement by the deadline. We already greatly mortgaged much of our future for this 3 to 4 year window while keeping some sort of hope for the 4th year and beyond. I don't see the need to throw everything we have for a one year greater shot.

I suffered through 32 of those years. I often wondered why we never "threw the sink" when we were closest to winning it all. I was pissed that Sox management seemed to just care about keeping us competitive enough to keep interest high and profits higher. I remember telling fellow Sox fans that i'd gladly take 10 last place finishes for just one ring. I meant it down to my very soul. Once we won the ring in 2004, that feeling left me fully. I got greedy and wanted more. I also realized that with this new ownership and management team, we didn't have to wait ten years to throw a new sink. We could stay highly competitive year after year and maybe win a few more rings. The 2007 championship with a different ace showed continuous winning was possible under strong management and ownership. Going from 2007 to 2013 was a bit painful but not anywhere near how it was from the early 70's, when I became a Sox fan, to 2004. Three last place finishes from 2012 to 2015 with a ring in 2013 was eerily like my childhood wishes, but that ring sure felt great, especially in light of what happened in Boston that spring of 2013. We also built a hell of a farm system during those four years. That helped outweigh the 3 piss-poor seasons surrounding the ring year. Throw the sink every time we feel very close to a ring? Tough decision. I love winning rings, but I love staying highly competitive every year or building the farm towards a long term winning future. It's not always possible to do both. I do think we went out of balance to go for it all in a 3-4 year window period, but at least we didn't throw the sink for just one season. Once we have gone "unbalanced", I'm for doing what is necessary to improve our chances this year- not by trading a top 3 prospect, but by making a minor deal or two at 3B and maybe SPing without totally depleting our farm system. Maybe it's not really throwing a sink this summer, but surely a sink or two were thrown last winter.

If Pom continues to do well, being able to extend him and Sale could greatly lessen the impact of losing Price and Porcello. If Porcello keeps struggling, replacing him with an upgrade at $21M should be easy to do. If Groome can contribute soon after we lose Price and/or Porcello, we may be able to use all the saved money to extend and re-sign everyone we want and maybe sign a significant SP'er at $15-20M. 1) Sale extended 2) $20M starter 3) ERod 4) Pomeranz extended 5) Wright/Groome Keep Betts, JBJ and Bogey Hope Devers, Travis and others can contribute at minimal pay which will allow us to pay big at other positions. Paying Price $31M from ages 34-37, even if he does well in those years and technically is "worth it" during years 4-7, we will likely be better off if he bolts.

Maybe. Maybe not. Sometimes they keep a young prospect where he is most comfortable, even if they are near certain he will be moved off the SS position eventually. Plus, the SS position is where a player holds the most value, if he can defend well enough, so keeping him at SS may keep the value highest, either within the Sox system or as trade bait for a later time.

Not really. The open FA market for big payday players is and has never been a good value guide. Just because another team overpays for Price after a great 2018 season (maybe $31M x 5 or 6 years or $33M x 4 or 5 years) does not mean we lose for watching him leave. We can do a lot with $31M... maybe better than what price projects to give after age 34. Maybe not, but never say never.

I'm not bashing Price. i was okay with the signing. I hope he does great to finish out his 3 or 7 year deal- either way. I thought he was the best SP'er to come on the FA market (next to MAYBE Scherzer) in many years. I don't blame DD at all for signing price. We needed an ace after losing Lester. I don't want to pay any pitcher $31M a year from ages 34 to 37, even if the guy just won a Cy Young's in 2018, which I think Price could possibly do. He's that good (at age 32-33). It's not bashing Price to want him to opt out, so we can free up some salary space to keep our better and younger talent and maybe find one good (younger) SP'er to replace Price and Porcello. We probably will need Groome to replace the other, so we can keep Sale and others.

For the Yanks- Yes. For the Sox- No.

The 2013 ring turned the cliff into a mole hill.

I've always felt your best overall hitter (SLG, OBP, BA) should bat 3rd. I'm not doubting Kimmi's research on the matter, so I'm fine with Betts up 4th. My own choice would be... vs RHPs: 1) Pedey (better than 2nd to limit his GIDPs) 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) JBJ 5) HRam 6) Moreland 7) Beni 8) Leon 9) Marrero vs LHPs 1) Pedey 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) HRam (1B or DH) 5) JBJ 6) Young (DH or LF) 7) Travis (1B), Moreland (1B) or Beni (LF) 8) Vaz 9) Marrero or Lin Like I said though, I'm fine with Betts 4th and JBJ 5th. I'm not feeling strongly about Bogey/Pedey being 1-2 or 2-1. HRam might do well up 3rd. Maybe Young could bat 3rd vs LHPs.

The more I bash his offensive skills, the better he does, so here I go: Marrero sucks on offense! Go Devon!! GO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our 5th best hitter right now is maybe HRam, Pedey or Moreland. Betts 4th. Bogey 1st. JBJ 5th. Going by your data on line-ups.

Teams should always be looking for ways to improve, in fact our current winning stretch has included many line-up adjustments and substitutions. One could actually argue that to continue as we have been doing, we should continue tinkering with the line-up. For example, we moved JBJ up recently and have scored even more runs since the move. We've began resting Moreland more with Travis on board, and we're still winning. We play Young or don't play him- win and win. We've moved Beni all over the line-up- win-win. Pedey gets hurt, Bogey sits- win-win. I love the "prosperity" that has come with tinkering.

Updated numbers after today's blowout: Sox leaders in OBP: .382 Pedey .370 JBJ .366 Bogey .364 Betts .353 HRam .351 Beni .350 Moreland .343 Young .314 Vaz .300 Leon .254 Marrero SLG % .506 Betts .491 JBJ .463 Moreland .455 Bogey .449 HRam .431 Beni .403 Leon .397 Young .378 Pedey .376 Vaz .347 Marrero Just looking at the numbers, and going along with Kimmi's batting order analysis, it seems like Betts and should bat 4 or 5. I'm fine with Betts 4 and JBJ 5. Maybe put HRam 3rd. 1) Bogey 2) Pedey 3) HRam or Moreland 4) Betts 5) JBJ 6) Moreland (Tavis) or HRam (Young) 7) Beni (Young) 8) Vaz/Leon 9) Marrero/Lin

Line-up formation has been an age old talking point for fans. True, it's value is overblown, but the debates are interesting. The 5 slot is also very important, and to me the bigger issue is why isn't JBJ batting 4th or 5th and not why Betts isn't 4th (or 3rd)?

The best athletes are often SSs in HS or college, but that doesn't mean they are SSs in the bigs. Guys like Yaz were SSs before joining professional ball. Also, if we end up with a glut of SSs, it's easy to trade one away.