moonslav59

I just finished Smart Baseball by Keith Law. He provides data from studies that shows man on 2nd no outs vs man on 3rd with 1 out is a "push". The odds are 0.66 vs 0.66. Only 1st and 2nd, no outs gives a very slightly better odds after a successful bunt only. There was no data on how failed bunts, bunting into DPs, or other possibilities affected the odds. man on 1st and 2nd no outs .65 chance of scoring 1 or more runs. man on 2nd and 3rd one out .69 chance of scoring 1 or more runs. man on 2nd and no outs .66 chance man on 3rd and one out .66 chance All others are worse, such as... man on 1st and 0 outs .50 chance man on 2nd and 1 out .45 chance There may be other studies that show some differences.

LOL. I know Lin's a better defender at 3B than Holt.

As a percentage decision, bunting has a lesser success rate by non-pitchers than not bunting. Wasting an out lessens the chance of scoring even one run. Man of first no outs: chance of scoring at all is .499. Man on second with one out: chance of scoring at all .477. Even if the bunt attempt was 100% successful, the odds get worse. The average runs scored? Man on 1st and no outs: 0.84 Man on 2nd and one out: 0.65 With man on first and second with no outs, the bunt looks like it might be a tiny bit better for scoring just one run, so I guess one should never say never. 1st and 2nd, no outs: .649 with no bunt to .695 after successful bunt (2nd and third with one out)

HRam: career .858 OPS Late & Close .813 (-.045) High Leverage .814 (-.044) 2 outs RISP .822 (-.036) RISP .852 (-.006) Men on .837 (-.021) The Gold Standard: David Ortiz .931 career OPS Late & Close: .870 (-.061) High Leverage: .942 (+.009) 2outs RISP: .951 (+.020) RISP: .943 (+.012) Men on: .967 (+.036) Hanley actually has a better OPS differential than Papi in Late & Close situations.

It's not even proven to help get one run. The odds are still better, unless your pitchers is up, to not give away outs.

Lin might be better vs RHPs (even at .703) than Holt.

Top AL UZR/150 leaders in 2017: 1) Betts 28.2 2) Alex Gordon 16.9 4) Iggy 15.4 11) Pedey 10.8 28) Bogaerts 3.1 39) JBJ 1.0 48) Beni -2.1 If you lower the innings to 200 and 138 players... 6) Marrero (3B) +16.7 110) Pablo -8.6 136) Young (LF) -26.2 29) Moreland 2.9

He needs to get hot soon. He's been horrible (.528 last 28 days).

Bunting is just plain bad strategy, except for having pitchers do it.

The Holt and Marerro proposed 3rd base platoon is the decision for now but Lin sits in the minors with potentially better numberss than either. vs. RHPs, Lin is probably better than both Holt and Marrero, but I'd stick with marrero vs LHPs until he proves he can't do it anymore.

Let's not forget HRam... Last 28 days: .939 HRam .910 Pedey .827 Betts Last 14 days: 1.009 Pedey .930 HRam .775 Betts Last 7 days: 1.006 Pedey .769 HRam .767 Young .755 Betts

Doesn't look like the cost was all that high.

Next year, we hope Smith & Thornburg are as far as we have to look. This year, we could really use a bonafide set-up guy via trade.

IP/GS 7.1 Sale 6.3 Porcello 6.1 Price 5.9 ERod 5.4 Pom 490.2IP/79GS 6.2 IP/GS 5.4 Johnson 5.2 Velazquez 4.9 Fister 4.8 Wright 4.2 Kendrick 94.1 IP/17 GS 5.5 IP/GS

AL FIP rankings: 1) Price 1.53 5) Sale 1.98 10) Pom 2.25 19) Porc 3.31 ERA- 3) Price 42 4) Sale 43 7) Pom 49 18) Porc 73

Top AL starters over the last 30 days by WAR: 1) 1.6 Price & Kluber 3) 1.4 Paxton 4) 1.3 Sale 5) 1.2 Darvish 6) 1.1 Severino 7) 1.0 Pomeranz & Tanaka 9) 0.9 Carrasco, Fulmer, Manae 13) 0.8 Peacock, S Gray, Verlander 14) 0.7 Hamels 15) 0.6 Porcello Pretty impressive to have 3 in the top 7 and 4 in the top 15 out of 15 AL teams!

Our top 4 rotation has been stronger than we've seen in a long time. Hopefully, ERod will get back to form soon.

We have a deep pen, but after Kimbrel, we don't really have a great RP'er: Kimbrel Kelly (DL) Smith (DL) Thornburg (Out for season) R Ross (DL) Barnes Hembree Workman Abad Boyer Scott Taylor Maddox Martin N Ramirez Plus, maybe... Johnson Fister Velazquez Olmos Beeks

I'd still like to have a lights out set-up man with a K rate above 10.0. Kelly has done a great job, so far and hopefully can continue doing so when he returns, but he's not a high K reliever. We can't count on C Smith for anything. Workman, Barnes and Hembree are nice complimentary RP'ers, but none look like solid 8th inning guys or occasional closer types.

I'd do this: 1. Demote a pitcher (Martin or Taylor). 2. Call up Travis to start vs LHPs at 1B. 3. DL Moreland or at least move him to the 7th slot. 4. If HRam can't play 1B vs RHPs, then find a cheap 1Bman in trade. (We might even wait until the waiver wire to find one, once we know moer about Moreland's injury and ability to return.) 5. Begin a Beni-Young platoon in LF (or call up Brentz to start in LF vs LHPs). 6. Stop rewarding guys for things they did 6 weeks ago and back (Moreland).

Mata is now 6th on the soxprospects rankings list: 1 Devers 2 Groome 3 Travis 4 Chavis 5 Houck 6 Mata 7 Flores 8 Ockimey 9 Chatham 10 Dalbec 11 Beeks 12 Lakins 13 Johnson 14 Brannen 15 Scherff 16 Shawaryn 17 Anderson 18 Thompson 19 D Hernandez 20 Callahan 21 Raudes 22 D Diaz 23 Taylor 24 Buttrey 25 Nogosek 26 A Maddox 27 T-W Lin

Harrison would be a nice upgrade at 3B and would offer depth at 2B, but he will cost way too much to be worth it. I'm not sure Lowrie is much of an upgrade over Holt-Marrero (Devers-Lin). Smae with Nunez, Flores & Rivera.

Some splits to ponder... Last 28 Days: .939 HRam (still getting grief from some posters) .910 Pedey (coming on strong) .827 Betts (waiting for a hot streak) .785 Beni (see splits vs RHPs below) .757 JBJ (not the streaky guy some think he is) .739 Lin (down on the farm, now) .703 Leon (holding tough) .698 Young (needs to start hitting lefties better) .644 Marrero (see splits vs LHPs) .565 Moreland (slumping in the 4 slot for too long) .528 Bogey (scary) .495 Vaz (hope he bounces back) vs RHPs .828 Betts (pretty balanced) .813 Beni (looks like a platoon player for now) .803 Bogey (way better than vs LHPs) .790 Moreland (numbers crashing hard) .768 HRam (on the rise, here) .766 Young (weird reverse splits this year) .755 JBJ (should improve here) .703 Lin .652 Leon (starter vs most RHPs?) .621 Vaz (starter vs all LHPs?) .405 Marrero .353 Holt (our starter at 3B vs RHPs, for now) .276 Travis vs LHPs 1.044 Pedey (bat 4th vs LHPs?) 1.003 Travis (might end up being a straight platoon player) .995 JBJ (wild reverse splits this year) .991 Marrero (3B starter vs LHPs, for now) .907 HRam (solid) .860 Betts (balanced) .796 Vaz (starter vs LHPs?) .700 Bogey (concerning) .697 Leon (sit vs lefties) .660 Young (needs to start hitting here) .590 Beni (should platoon until he shows he can hit LHPs) .577 Moreland (does not start vs LHPs) It looks like this team has 4 positions platooned or that should be platooned: 1B: Moreland- Travis (if he was here)-Young otherwise LF: Beni - Young (see above) 3B: Holt-Marrero C: Leon-Vaz Since Young can only platoon at one position, we are being force to play Beeni vs LHPs (.590 OPS). I think we should send a pitcher down and call-up Travis. Despite his struggles at the plate, he's probably better than Beni. We could also call up Brentz to start vs LHPs at DH or LF. I wonder how long we will stick with Holt at 3B vs RHPs. It's not like Lin was killing righties (.703) though.

I've never been a big JF fan, but keeping Moreland 4th is inexcusable.

He can just sign Miller again.