moonslav59

I've always felt WAR is n0t a good measure for RP'ers. Before today's game, fangraphs had barnes with a higher WAR thaan Kimbrel. Weird since Kimbrel has more IP. Kimbrel was ranked 36th in MLB WAR for RP'ers in 2018. Combine 2017 & 2018: 3.6 Kimbrel 3.4 Osuna 3.4 Jansen 3.1 C Green 2,8 Miller 2.7 A Bailey 2.7 Knebel 2.5 Neshek 2.4 F Vazquez 2.3 Robertson 2.3 Madson 2.3 Chapman

We're 7-2 vs NYY, LAA & TOR NYY are 9-6 vs BOS, LAA & TOR

Sox and their opponents 4-2 vs TBR .333 - .478 TBR vs others 11-12 3-0 vs BAL .000 - .308 BAL vs others 8-18 3-0 vs LAA .000 - .654 LAA vs others 17-9 2-1 vs NYY .333 - .692 NYY vs others 18-8 2-1 vs TOR .333 - .593 TOR vs others 16-11 2-1 vs KCR .333 - .259 KCR vs others 7-20 2-0 vs MIA .000 - .407 MIA vs others 11-16 1-2 vs OAK .333 - .461 OAK vs others 12-14 Differential: .654 LAA .407 MIA .359 NYY .308 BAL .260 TOR .145 TBR -.074 KCR -.074 OAK As you can see, the teams we beat by more than their record against others are the better teams like the NYY and LAA. Let's now look at the NYY: 5-4 vs TOR .444 - .619 vs others 13-8 4-0 vs MN .000 - .456 vs others 10-12 3-0 vs LAA .000 - .654 vs others 17-9 2-0 vs TBR .000 - .481 vs other 13-14 1-0 vs DET .000 - .464 vs others 13-15 1-1 vs MIA .500 - .370 vs other 10-17 1-1 vs HOU.500 - .655 vs others 19-10 1-2 vs BOS .667- .778 vs others 21-6 1-3 vs BAL .750 - .200 vs others 5-20 Differential .654 LAA .481 TBR .464 DET .456 MN .155 HOU .111 BOS -.130 MIA -.550 BAL Being undefeated vs 4 teams (including 1-0 vs DET) makes the yanks look better than the Sox in these comps, but look at the 2 teams that did better vs NYY than the rest of MLB.

Ever think that part of the reason the teams we played have a worse record is because we beat them by more than the teams the Yankess beat?

If moonslav reads this, I would like his thoughts on CERA with respect to Leon and Vazquez. I liked our staff before the season started. We've had many pitcher injuries and still we are 3rd in pitcher WAR and ERA-. I give some credit to Vaz & Leon for that. It's not something easily quantifiable. I often catch grief for only dealing with numbers and data, but there are many opinions I hold based on just my beliefs. This is one.

True, but the cost will be astronomical for a closer (IMO).

I agree. At least we get some compensation along with some budget space.

soxprospects.com on D Hernandez and others.... http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/05/notes-from-field-darwinzon-hernandez.html

Johnson is out of options. This might be his last chance with this club.

You mean when .... Wade Davis got $52M/3 Bryan Shaw got $27M/3 B Morrow got $22M/2 Greg Holland got $11M/1 (late)

I haven't read every post here, so forgive me, if I am repeating someone else's point, but I think we should (will?)... Offer Kimbrel a QO and let the chips fall where they may. If we lose him, we get some help on the farm, and some budget space to sign someone or keep someone we were about to lose. If he accepts, we have him for one more year within the window.

I caught the ending to the game this morning. What a great game, except for coming up short in the end. Kudos to the team for clawing back so many times. It's a shame Sale missed another chance to get a win, but he looked fine. Good to see Beni getting on base more often.

Cause he sucks.

I agree. Our budget is not unlimited. If we sign Kimbrel we lose elsewhere.

I said, they did not have a great closer or "established top level closer" as the point given that I responded to.

2014: SF's Sergio Romo had a nice year, but he was never considered a top 5 closer. KC was in the WS another year without a great closer. In 2013, STL had Mujica as a closer. The 2015 Mets got a great season from Familia, but does anyone think of him as a top closer?

We'll probably have to lose Pom or Porcello, even if we let Kimbrel walk. It might mean Pom & Porcello or one of them plus Bogey or JBJ.

There are 4 very tough AL teams this year: Boston Houston NY Yanks Cleveland All could win 94+ games.

I agree. A spot start here or there is fine, but it's nice having a guy who can give you 2-3 innings every 2-3 days.

His "value" does not exceed his contract cost. Nobody will take him without salary relief, and that relief counts against the luxury tax and put us over the $40M penalty phase. He's not going anywhere. Also, he obviously prefers the money over any chance at making a MLB career for himself.

I cherry-picked the start time for this comp (2011-2018). Here are the comp numbers of the top 3 closers in MLB during this time: IP Closer WAR (not a good measure for RP'ers) 461 Kimbrel 17.5 460 Jansen 16.3 426 Capman 15.8 Other categories Cat Kim/ Jan/ Chap xFIP 2.04/ 2.21/ 2.28 ERA- 46 / 60 / 55 WHIP 0.90/0.88/1.00 (Uehara 0.82!) K/BB 4.6/ 6.2/ 3.7 (Uehara 7.7!) LOB% 84/ 82/ 81 Saves 297/ 229/ 219 BSvs 29/ 28/ 20

Evertime I bash him, he goes off. Then, I get upset they hit him 4th, and BINGO! He goes nutty! The guys sucks. I wish we had Moose or Duda!

Yes, and that's why he should and will not be brought up unless at least two requirements are met: 1) We need an OF'er. Right now we have 4, if you count JD plus 4-5 non OF'ers with OF experience: Nunez (will be looking for PAs soon), Holt (was off to a nice start), Swihart & Lin/Moreland. I seriously doubt we'll ever have a need this year. 2) He looks nearly certain to be a plus at the ML level. We can always just trade for a cheaper salary dump or some other OF'er who can hit .600 and play great D like JBJ. It's just not happening. Castillo is stuck in purgatory, unless he wants to sacrifice his contract by quitting and then joining another team to get a shot at making the bigs.