moonslav59

That makes some sense, but we had several players who had way more HRs last year than this: HRs 2016 to 2017 31 Betts 18 (on pace for 21) 30 HRam 22 (25) 26 JBJ 14 (17) 21 Bogey 8 (9) 15 Pedey 6 (7) These 5 players hit 122 HRs last year. This year, those 5 are on pace to hit 79. That's a massive decline from our top 5 HR players last year. What's the reason?

I agree. I was commenting on the mood swing of this board. It doesn't surprise me. Every board I've ever been on has people that are easily influenced by short streaks- good or bad. My point is that JF has always been this way. It shouldn't take a mere 5 games stretch to see him for what he has always been: an excellent pitching coach but a poor manager.

I'd say Betts is very close to JBJ's level. Both are GG caliber. I would also say JBJ is slightly better, but it is very close to the same level. Bogey is not even an average defender at SS. Even if you want to claim he's slightly above average, I would not call that "solid". Plus, he's gotten worse over the last 2 years, when one would normally expect improvement. 2016-2017 (33 SSs with 1000+ innings) 19th in UZR/150 (-2.2) 33rd in DRS (-23) These numbers show he is not even average. Defensive Runs saved show he is the very worst. You may disagree with the validity of defensive metrics, but calling the worst DRS'd SS "Solid" is really a stretch. Note: 2014-2015 (34 SSs with 1000+ innings) 19th in UZR/150 (0.9) slightly better than 2016 to 2017 22nd in DRS (-10) way better than 2016-2017 Bogey has clearly gotten at least a little worse. He started out below average. He is now clearly below average. One could argue he is bottom 5 to 6 out of 30. He's not a "solid defender". Not even close.

Agreed. We seem to be using the same hitting philosophy we've used for years. Other teams have adjusted. We have nit adjusted to their adjustments.

Maybe... - Balls and strikes called differently - More teams using technology to improve hitting approaches - Teams recognizing the Sox hitters are slow to adjust their approach (too easy predictability) A juiced ball should have helped the Sox too, so I doubt that is it. Decline in pitching should have helped us, too. We added Beni and Devers, so we had "an influx" of good young hitters, too. I'm not sure there is a simple explanation. I know some want to claim almost all of our players got worse, because of Papi's departure. I just can't accept that as being a significant factor in our offensive decline. Certainly going from Papi to Moreland was going to create some decline from 2016 to 2017, but while most of the league has seen players doing better from 2016 to 2017, almost all of our players have gotten worse or much worse. When you also see that none of our regular players are post-prime, the declines are baffling, to me. Leon's decline was expected, but not this... 2016 to 2017 .897 Betts .769 (-118) 22 y/o .866 HRam .760 (-106) 33 y/0 .850 Young .710 (-140) 33 y/o .845 Leon .652 (-193) 28 y/o .835 JBJ .770 (-65) 27 y/o .835 Beni .798 (-37) 22 y/o .825 Pedey .778 (-47) 33 y/o .802 Bogey .728 (-74) 24 y/o .705 Holt .500 (-205) 29 y/o .585 Vaz .734) (+149) 26 y/o These numbers speak for themselves. The drop off by all but one player is mind-boggling. No player is older than 33. 7 of these players are 29 or less- ages that normally do NOT see decline. When 6 of those 7 decline, many by over 60 or 100 points, you have to shake your head and wonder.

On Brentz... We are going to have to trade or DFA some players to make room for rule 5 additions, so we probably already know who is going to go. We could have jumped the gun and made room for Brentz on the 40 man by getting rid of someone we are bound to get rid of later this fall. Here are the rule 5 players: Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Jhonathan Diaz, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Justin Pacchioli, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Fernando Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Aneury Tavarez, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte Here are some players that could have been traded or DFA'd: Henry Owens Holt or Marrero (with Hernandez and Lin, we don't need both for 2018. Elias or Kyle Martin Hembree is out of options and may not make the 25 man roster next year. We could have traded him. Boyer Young All we needed was to decide on one of these guys. I'm sure DD already knows which one will not be on the 40 man roster by rule 5 time.

soxprospects.com... The 2017 Arizona Fall League rosters have been announced, with seven members of the Red Sox set to play for the Peoria Javelinas. They will send infielders Michael Chavis, Josh Tobias, and Chad De La Guerra, and pitchers Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, Ty Buttrey, and Bobby Poyner. Former Red Sox prospect Javier Guerra will also play with the Javelinas.

Probably the same for Brentz to some extent. It just doesn't project to the bigs. That being said, I'd have given Brentz a shot this September, even if just as a PH'er to start.

Is Farrell any better or worse than he was 2 weeks to 2 months ago? The mood on this board sure has changed in just 2 weeks.

One word: Pablo.

It's very painful to watch right now. Frustrating and painful. That being said, we've had some rough patches before and bounced back. Our pitching and defense is better than last year. That counts for something, especially in an era where run-scoring has skyrocketed. That brings me to an important point- not an excuse, but still important. We are on pace to score 766 runs this year (4.73 per game). That would have placed us 6th or 7th last year, which is about where many of us expected us to finish this year after the loss of Papi. 766 would have been just 13 runs from finishing 3rd last year. While this might all seem irrelevant today, and in some ways it is, the fact is the league has passed us. The offensive increase by most teams is about as influential in our ranking drop as our decline. This doesn't make the issue any less important, but when comparing this team to last year's team, it's really not that much worse than it appears. The context of the numbers has changed radically, and that has hurt this team beyond what some of us expected. There were many posters who warned of the offense being way too weak to compete. This offense surprised me and others. I don't think anyone expected just about every major player, except Vaz, who has only player just over half our games this year, to improve on offense. We've seen, what appears to be, an unprecedented decline by just about everyone, even players who are in prime or approaching prime- years where one might normally expect improvements not near total declines. Now, the other side of the equation. We all knew "the plan" was that improved pitching (Sale, Thornburg, Smith) and defense (Moreland, Beni) and maybe base-running would more than offset the expected slight (or major) decline in scoring. As the league has taken off in offense, the imporved pitching should be viewed as even more improved than it looks on paper due to the massive run increase from last year to this. Just as out offense looks worse in light of everyone else scoring more than last year, our pitching has vastly improved. This year, our pitching/defense has allowed 550 runs. That places us 6th (3rd in the AL behind CLE & NYY). That puts us on pace to allow 645 runs this year. Last year, we allowed 694 runs. We placed 9th. That's almost 50 runs less than last year. That should have and has offset some of the decline in offense. Our offense declined from 878 runs to a projected 766 runs scored this year. We may lose 120 runs scored while allowing 50 less. That's a net decline for sure. The 70 run differential is significant. It's almost a half a run (.43) per game. Now, just 2 weeks ago, our offense was projected to score enough to have placed 3rd last year, so maybe these projections will change, if we hit a hot streak, but the way this team has hit, I'm not very hopeful that happens. We have shown glimpses of offense here and there this year, but they have been few and far- between. Hoping or expecting this team to start hitting once the playoffs begin is probably just wishful thinking, but history has shown that teams can win without great or even good offense. We're going to have to ride our pitching and defense. We're going to have to hope our base-running is a plus by eliminating dumb mistakes. We're going to need some luck and/or timely hitting. I guess every team may need that to win it all. I haven't given up hope on this team, but our offense is surely a big weakness right now. It's painful to watch.

I might set up the rotation like this... September 5 ERod v TOR 6 Fister v TOR 7 --off-- 8 Pom +1 v TBR 9 Sale +1 v TBR 10 Porc +1 v TBR 11 --off-- 12 ERod +1 v OAK 13 Fister +1 v OAK 14 Pom +1 v OAK 15 Sale +1 @ TBR 16 Porc +1 @ TBR 17 ERod @ TBR 18 Fister @ BAL 19 Brian Johnson @ BAL 20 Pom +1 @BAL 21 --off-- 22 Sale +2 @ CIN 23 Fister @ CIN (Swap with Porcello) 24 Porc +3 @ CIN (Swap with Fister) 25 Pom v TOR 26 ERod +2 v TOR 27 Brian Johnson v TOR 28 Sale +1 v HOU 29 Fister +1 v HOU 30 Pom v HOU (Swap with Porcello) Oct 1 Por +2 v HOU (Swap with Pom) 2 ---off--- 3 ---AL WC game--- 4---off--- 5 AL Div Game 5 games: Sale (+2 days rest)-Fister (+2) -Pom (+3)-Porcello (+3) -Sale 30 Porc v HOU 31 30 ERo

Betts is awesome on D. He covers a lot of ground in Fenway's massive RF. Bogey is not "solid" on D, unless you think slightly below average (at best) is "solid".. The rest I agree with.

Soxprospects.com has their September rankings out... http://soxprospects.com/index.html The biggest movers... In top 15 +14 Beeks (to #9) +11 Mata (to #5) +8 Chavis (to #3) +6 Shawaryn (to #8) +1 Devers, Groome 0 Travis, Ockimey, B Johnson -7 Chatham -10 Dalbec 16-30 Ranked: +41 or more Lin (NR to #19) +37 or more H Velazquez (NR to #23) +30 or more Chad de la Guerra (NR to #30) +29 Brentz +14 A Maddox +5 D Hernandez +4 A Tavarez -5 Ben Taylor, C Shepherd -9 R Raudes, Lakins New to Rankings: 6 Houck 7 Flores 11 Brannen 12 Scherff 18 J Thompson 20 D Diaz 27 B Netzer 28 Z Schellenger 32 J Haley (returned from rule 5) 33 D Mars Not Ranked: Jeremy Barfield

They don't have to skip Sale starts, just move him back a day for the rest of the season. That will mean he loses one start. If we can't win while doing that, we weren't going anywhere anyhow.

Betts was at .876 on July 3rd. He's really only had 2 bad months, but man-o-man, they were bad months: .695 July .658 August September does not look any better. I'm hoping he turns it around, but how long can you keep on hoping?

HR/9 1.2, 1.0, 0.9, 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 1.3, 0.9, 1.7 I'm not disagreeing with the idea that 2016 was an outlier, but that 1.7 looks way out of wack as well.

I really want JF gone, but I was hoping it wouldn't take an implosion to make it happen. This sucks!

So, these are the final numbers... 31 Brentz 31 Chavis 28 Barfield 28 Devers and counting...

Yeah but how unusual is this? Do the Sox have stretches like this all the time? Only on bad teams th that srruggle? Do all teams have stretches like this? These numbers need some relevant perspective. ... In light of how poorly this team was doing before this stretch, I guess it's not so unreal. Personally, I've been expecting this team to bust out any minute now for months and months. I think that is what shocks me. We seem to be getting worse. I realize my expectations might have been bloated, but this is pretty bad what we are seeing now.

If Swihart makes the 2018 twenty-five man roster, I wouldn't be surprised, but I would not bet on it. Next year's 13 everyday players: (I'm assuming we acquire a 1Bman) The sure 9: C: Vaz 1B: ________ 1B/DH: HRam 2B: Pedey 3B: Devers SS: Bogey LF: Beni CF: JBJ RF: Betts 4 to be determined: C: Leon (very good chance at being on the 25 man roster) 1B: Travis (depends on 1B acquisition) IF: Hernandez (my choice as top IF utility) IF/OF: Holt (ability to play OF and to a lesser extent 1B helps his case) 1B/C/3B/LF: Swihart (3rd catcher ability is a big plus) IF: Lin (apparently learning to play OF) OF: Brentz (needs to be added to 40 man roster) OF: ______________ (off season acquisition) IF: Marrero (seems to be the odd man out and may even be a 40 man roster casualty to make room for Brentz or a rule 5 player)

By Steve Adams | September 4, 2017 at 9:26am CDT The Red Sox have been getting Blake Swihart experience at first base, and he’s also been taking grounders at third base, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Boston also plans to send the 25-year-old former top prospect to winter ball this year, which will allow him to make up for some missed time (due to injuries) but could also boost his trade value by showcasing some versatility. The switch-hitting Swihart was long touted as Boston’s catcher of the future, but Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon look locked in for the 2018 season, when Swihart will be out of minor league options. “We recognize where he’s at contractually going into next year,” manager John Farrell tells Abraham. “Trying to create some versatility on the defensive side of things is part of the overall plan.” Swihart’s surgically repaired ankle has still limited him this year, so the extra time in winter ball could prove especially important as the Sox make a determination on his future.

I wouldn't give up on LF for Swihart. If he has any chance at winning a utility role next year, being a 5th OF'er option would help his case. I do think 1B, C and 3B should be his main focus points, but since Holt, Hernandez, Lin and Marrero can all play 3B, being able to play LF could tip the balance in Swi's favor.

Sox hits per game going backwards from last night: 5 6 7 4 10 9 12 8 4 6 9 8 12 5 12 6 10 8 games out of 17 games with 7 or less hits 12 out of last 17 with 9 or less hits O out of 17 with more than 12 hits

Good points. It's kind of surprising we have scored so much with just about everyone but Vaz doing worse or much worse than last year.