moonslav59

Yes, nobody expected Leon to repeat 2016, but we also lost two sub .500 catchers in Hanigan and Holiday, and most expected Vaz to improve on 2016, and he did. Overall, I think expecting about the same overall catching OPS was called for, and that's what we got. Yes, we should not have expected Pedey to repeat 2016, when he's been under .800 in his other 3 recent years. Yes, HRam has been inconsistent and playing injured for many recent years. Moreland has been the Moreland of old. While expecting HRam, Pedey or Moreland to do very well or great might not have been expected, I still feel the chances all 3 did not do as well as they could have done is slightly against the odds. Now, to take those odds and couple them with the fact that every young- up and coming- player has declined from 2016-- all at once-- is surprising at least and shocking at most. These are players on the upward curve or expected growth. Sure, there is the possibility that all had outlier seasons last year, and this year was a just a return to their norm. Yeah, maybe there is no simple explanation. Papi's departure and lack of his team leadership and positive affects on other players has to be part of the answer, but it is doubtful it is all of it. I disagree on you JBJ call. While he did have an unbelievably slow start to his career, he had gone over 900 PAs with an OPS over .830 right before the start of 2017. He's right at the start of his prime. He's down 100 points from his previous 900 PAs. He has not been "like this for years", unless you truly think he is more like the rookie JBJ than the 2015-2016 JBJ. Betts and Bogey, as you pointed out, should not have had years like this. Beni's sample size was too small last year to have any expectations of improvement. I've mentioned this before, but I think it is worth repeating: looking singularly at any returning Sox player, nothing looks shocking, except maybe Betts. One could expect that we might see decline from 3 or 4 of these 6 returning players: HRam, Pedey, Bogey, JBJ, Beni and Betts. It was highly improbable for all 6 to decline, and shocking to me anyways, how much they all declined. Last 3 years.... .717>.866>.749 HRam (-117/+32) .832>.835>.731 JBJ (-104/-101) .820>.897>.795 Betts (-102/-25) .797>.825>.760 Pedey (-65/-37) .776>.802>.745 Bogey (-57/-21) n/a>.835>.778 Beni (-57/ n/a) As you can see, all but HRam are down from their 2015 seasons as well. To me, this is shocking and unexplainable. The other positions: Catcher .646> .665> .695 (The only position with returning players that improved) 3B .693> .686> .676 (Pablo out- Devers in) DH .855> 1.045> .748 (No Papi- replaced by Moreland at 1B & HRam to DH) To me, the drop of by virtually everyone but Vaz is totally unexplainable and shocking by just how much many decline by. We're not talking 10-15 points. We're talking all 6 players going down by 57 or more points. 3 of the 6 by over 100!

The problem is that the teams ahead of us and in the playoffs have top 5 pitching, too.

HRam with the big hit...at the wrong time.

HRam had a chance to redeem himself. Nope!

My point was maybe we don't lose his last start, if we rested him. 2-0 is better than 2-1 or 1-2.

I like our chances, too. However, if I had to set the odds, I'd give CLE the edge.

We have 3 days off after game 162. How much rest do our everyday players need?

FIP isn't everything. I's still take Gray over our 3rd starter. ERA- 67 Severino 84 S Gray 87 Sabathia 89 Montgomery 99 Pineda 111 Tanaka 64 Sale 74 Pom 77 Price 92 ERod 102 Porcello 107 Fister

True, and Pedey's injury may not improve much for next year.

Tonight's line-up Bogey Pedey Beni Betts Moreland HRam Devers Leon Davis

First, I want to say, I do not think Marco can or will replace Pedey's offense, but I wouldn't say the "only way" about it. 1) Marco has been over .780 in both of his last 2 seasons at AA and AAA. While that does not mean he can do that at the ML level, it's not impossible to imagine him hitting near .790. 2) Pedey "at his worst" for a full season was .712 in 2015. He's 33 now, and one could imagine him declining next year. Plus, he's been under .800 in 5 of his last 6 seasons. That's not far from Marco's 2 season totals on the farm. 3) I wouldn't feel awful, if Marco had to play 2B a lot next year, but there is a significant chance he falls way short of Pedey's recent production. Pedey's at .764 now, and so projecting Marco to come close to that, I feel, is not a big stretch. They could both easily be near .750 next season.

That looks like best idea. We cannot afford to trade players or top prospects. I'd also like to see us bring back Nunez, but I'm not sure we can afford both.

I took it that way and agree with your point.

My expectation was just to be like 2015-2016. I had given up on his defense already. As for Didi G, I've long suspected something funny in the water fountains in the Yankee clubhouse.

I'm not going to compare MH to Pedey, but he did have an OPS over .780 in the minors over his last two seasons (AA>AAA). He looks to be a decent hitter. His defense is suspect, but 2B might be the best fit for him. He MIGHT be a capable back-up who can fill in nicely, when Pedey DHs or is on the DL. I like him more than Holt, marrero or Lin at 2B.

Yay! Tampa Bay!

JBJ talk on the Porcello thread. Pedey talk on the JBJ thread. Someone start a Pedey thread, so I can talk Porcello..

That means Rodriguez, groome, matta to start with. Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe Bogey, Chavis & Beeks. Maybe Chavis, Flores,Shawaryn & Beeks

I never said I agreed with the numbers, but $20M is nonsense, too.

Keep clinging to the myth.

I would. He's still got hope.

No, but I sense a lot of Chicken Littles here. This things been locked up for a long time. Relax.

Better for me is, who is your number 2? I go with Pom AWAY ERA 3.19 Pom 3.99 ERod Home 3.58 Pom 3.81 ERod

Even if we lost last night, I'd call it a lock. maybe not deadbolt lock but still a lock. 2 up with 4 to go are great odds.

Sox: 9 Stros: 5