moonslav59

There's certainly reason to be concerned about the staff, but with all the "what can go wrongs" there are as many "what can go rights." Porcello doesn't have to be like 2016 to be a big improvement over 2017. Pomeranz could easily be for real and repeat or improve on 2017. Price gave us just about nothing last year as a starter. It's not hard to imagine him doing better or much better. Wright was a decent pitcher before his great start to 2016. There's a chance he can do better than the 30 starts by Fister-Johnson-Velazquez-Kendrick + the 2017 Wright. We might get a surprise from Johnson or Velazquez. I realize this is being overly optimistic, but certainly a few of these things can come true, while the others just stay even. We were 13-11 in ERod's starts, and his 4.19 ERA was higher than the team starter 4.06 ERA. Would I rather have ERod than Wright, Velazquez and Johnson? Hell yes, but we might be surprised next year. We may also pick up a better starter than Fister. I'm also thinking our pen will be better and deeper. We have Smith returning, Maddox and Workman for the full year and maybe something from Ross or Thorburg.

If we have close to $40M to spend, like I think we do, I think we should be able to get a good power hitter and solid pitcher for that kind of money. The problem is that there aren't many very good power hitters on the market that match our highest positions of need: 1B DH, if HRam can play 1B enough possibly 3B, if we move Devers to 1B Trading means we give up a player and create a new hole or further deplete an already weakened farm.

Moose is a risk. I've said that. I'm not drooling over him, but he addresses our power issue better than Hosmer, and he also solves our 3B defense issue, though not to a great level. Devers and HRam could share 1B and DH.

I'd start with Moose at 3B and Devers at 1B, but let Devers take reps at 3B and play some games when Moose rests. I wouldn't risk games lost with an obvious and significantly worse defender at 3B everyday. Don't wait to lose two games and then make the move.

I'm not judging him. I was actually agreeing with your statement, "I think a lot of it is players being healthier and playing better. Seriously, this team had issues with both - and won 93 games! And note - Benintendi, Betts, Bradley did not actually have bad years ... they had years which were right in the middle of the bell curve of outcomes for them...." Betts had wrist issues too, so I'm not sure why he was listed and not Bogey.

We should also have a full season from Maddox and Workman, plus maybe something from Robbie Ross.

Moustakas is a similar gamble to Hosmer. He's only 28 and 2017 looks like it COULD be a fluke. 34 HRs is a lot more than Hosmer's 25. Moose also has 3 straight years over .800, but his pre-2015 numbers are very low. He's barely a plus UZR/150 over the last 3 years combined (+0.2), but that's way better than Devers. One has to then consider the poor defense at 1B with Devers for a while anyways. Moose is not my favorite guy, but this year's free agent class only has one big slugger: JD Martinez. Moustakas looks like the safest 2nd choice, if power is what you are looking for. The .305 career OBP is scary, although it's been .329 over the last 4 years.

Santana is maybe my third FA choice, if we miss out on JD Martinez and Moustakas.

Maybe try JD Martinez at 1B. We still have HRam and Travis as back-ups. The Devers move to 1B could be a reality sooner than we want. That's one major reason to look for a 1 year signing, even if it's a massive overpay.

Abreu will cost top prospects. Just sign someone to a 1 year deal and see if Devers needs to be moved to 1B. Don't logjam 1B with an iffy player and 4-5 years.

Moreland is a much better fielder, but Hosmer is better than Moreland by a lot. It's the 4 years plus that kills any idea of signing him. (No Moreland either!)

I said he "could be" a one year wonder. Duda has been more consistent with his OPS and power. HRs Duda: 30, 27, 7 (in 172 PAs), 30 Hoze: 17, 9, 25, 25 SLG Duda 481>486>412>496 Hoze 398>459>433>498

He's not a guy you sign for 4-5, despite the fact that he's 28 (today is his birthday). We need a bat, and Hosmer's glove is not something that changes any decision. 2014-2017 thirty -one 1Bmen with 1500+ PAs; SLG .480 Duda (8th) .449 Hosmer (18th) ISO .242 Duda (4th) .160 Hosmer (29th) Yes, Hosmer is better in BA and OBP, but we need power. OBP .350 Hosmer (12th) still not worth a 4 year deal being 12th in your best stat .338 Duda (14th)

Gold Gloves are a joke. I gave up paying attention to that award when they gave one to a guy who DH'd all year. I forget who he was.

I'd get physically sick, if we sign Hosmer to 4+ years. 1B (or DH, if HRam can play 1B) is where we have the best chance to get a big boost. You are making a lot of assumptions about Hosmer based on 2017. He's been under .765 in 2 of the last 4 seasons. While his defense is better than Duda, he's been a negative UZR/150 guy the last 2 years and is -4.1 career at 1B. This isn't the guy you sign to such a key offensive position for 4 or more years. Don'y guarantee anything about what I say about a player based on 1 year. My MO has been pretty consistently about a player's last 3-4 year numbers, unless they are 23-25 years old. Both Hosmer and Duda are risky signings. I'll go with the 1 year guy and then go all out for Machado next year and move Devers to 1B, where he likely belongs anyways. BTW, Hosmer might end up at DH, if Devers fails on defense at 3B.

In short, we have 26 "keepers", unless they get traded and 8 bubble players- 4 without options. 4 bubble players with options remaining M Hernandez Tzu-Wei Lin Brock Holt Ben Taylor 4 bubble players with no options remaining (DFA, trade or non-tender): Marrero Hembree Johnson Swihart Gone: Owens Rutledge Elias That leaves 6 slots for rule 5 players and newly added players via trade or free agency. Are the 6 players we add to the 40 man roster to protect? Jalen Beeks Danny Mars Jeremy Barfield Jake Cosart Justin Haley Kyle Martin Assuming all this comes true, who goes, if we sign 1, 2 or 3 free agents? 1) We could trade some guys with no options remaining. 2) We could make a 2 or 3 for 1 type deal. 3) We could DFA... 1 from Holt, Marrero or Lin 1 from Hembree or Taylor Swihart a rule 5 guy (Barfiled or Martin?)

Yes, more likely we sign JD, Duda and some retread starters. I doubt we address 2B depth, until we see how Pedey and Hernandez look. We ended up getting Nunez pretty cheap mid season, so I think we wait it out there.

Getting Stanton does not "close our off season". His luxury tax hit is $25M, and we apparently have $40M to spend and not reach the second penalty phase. That's $15M, which might get us Cozart or Cobb or maybe two guys like Duda and Kendrick/Nunez. Heck, Santana might go for $15M. Henry might even allow us to go over $40M in additional spending. The extra penalty is just dropping 10 picks in the draft for round one.

"Everything written?" This article seems to hint that the Cincy media was complaining about the lack of leadership in the Reds clubhouse: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/redsblog/2015/02/24/joey-votto-says-reds-full-of-leaders/23959477/ I'm not going to pretend to know anything about Votto's leadership skills, and I'm not doubting the fact that we have a void in that area after Papi's departure, but I was just curious about why you felt he is the very best. I never heard anything about it, but then a again, I wasn't looking at the Cincy clubhouse or media outlets.

Henry's bank is bigger.

Votto has said over and over that he does not want to leave Cincy. He has a no trade clause. I think he's a pipe dream. Just curious, what makes you think Votto is the best clubhouse guy in all of MLB?

I'd be very happy, if we sign JD Martinez, Alex Cobb and Lucas Duda. I'm not sure we can do so and stay under the second luxury tax penalty line. We might get just below the line, and then need to make a mid season deal or two. Maybe the second limit is not so bad anyways. 1) Bogey SS 2) Betts RF 3) Beni LF/CF 4) Martinez DH/LF 5) Duda 1B/DH vs RHPs or HRam 1B/DH vs LHPs 6) Devers 3B 7) Pedey 2B 8) JBJ CF or HRam 1B/DH 9) Vaz C Bench: HRam or Duda, Leon, 2 from: Lin, Travis, Hernandez, Holt or Marrero SP1 Sale SP2 Price SP3 Pom SP4 Cobb SP5 Porcello SP6 Wright/ERod/Johnson (out of options) RP1 Kimbrel RP2 Smith RP3 Kelly RP4 Barnes RP5 Maddox RP6 Workman RP7 Hembree (out of options)/Scott/Thornburg/R Ross/Taylor We may have to let some arb guys go (or trade them), so we can afford everyone. Maybe Holt, Ross and/or Hembree..

lol

Yes, and add Bogey to your list of young players dipping when many rise.

I'm very hopeful with Cora. We've come a long way since the Yawkey era. I'm hopeful we can land Hickey. With JF gone, our pitching staff will need a strong influence, and I'm not sure Cora is equipped for that role.