moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Before Vaz got hurt, he was the clear #1 catcher and had an .860 OPS in the month before his injury.
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Why can't we ever develop kids like this one?
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IMO, many teams would take Vaz right now at that contract. And, if you go by most recent sample sizes, like you are with Swihart, then Vaz should be worth $10M a year x 5 for hitting .860 in his last 60 PAs.
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Vaz is our number one catcher, and I doubt another month of good/great hitting by Swihart changes that. I seriously doubt managers and GMs put as much stock in recent small sample size trends as some do here. I'm not saying bench a hot hand, but Vaz hit .735 last year over 345 PAs and hit .860 in the month before his injury this year. That was a 60 PA sample size- nearly double Swihart's recent binge. How is it that some posters discount Vaz's recent 60 PA sample size in favor of a 32 PA recent sample size? (Also, Sandy hit .845 over the whole 2016 season in 283 PAs).
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It was a great extension. At worst, he could be dealt without paying a cent of his contract. This would also put us back under the max penalty line.
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Sorry, but I feel this is extremely absurd. If anything, Leon would be traded or phantom DL'd, or Swihart would be traded. Vaz is the starting catcher until Swihart shows he can do well for months and months- not a 32 PA stretch spread over 30 days.
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Updated... What's our 100% healthy 25 man roster (no Pedey)? Lock: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod Kimbel, Barnes Near lock: Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson Velazquez, Hembree (no options), Thornburg, Kelly Bubble: Pomeranz, Brasier, Workman Lock: Vazquez Bubble: Leon, Swihart Lock: Moreland, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, JD Near Lock: Pearce, Kinsler, Nunez, Holt 14 Locks 11 Near Locks 5 Bubles (Leon/Swihart and Pom/Brasier/Workman) Since we need 2 catchers, a "near lock" has to be moved to "Bubble". Who could that be? Wright/Kelly/Thornburg/Hembree? Holt/Nunez?
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I forgot Wright, too.
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I'd go with a rotation of ... Sale Price Porcello Johnson Pomeranz When ERod returns, I'd send Pom to the pen as of now.
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What if both Johnson & Pom pitch great next start?
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What's our 100% healthy 25 man roster (no Pedey)? lock: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod Kimbel, Barnes Near lock: Eovaldi, Johnson Velazquez, Hembree (no options) Bubble: Pomeranz, Kelly, Brasier, Workman:: Lock: Vazquez Bubble: Leon, Swihart Lock: Moreland, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, JD Near Lock: Pearce, Kinsler, Nunez, Holt
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Maybe Holt, since Nunez & Swihart have no options remaining. How about a phantom DL for Nunez or trade him and get back under the tax line?
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Leon & Vaz both have hit .735 in more recent seasons than Swihart.
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32 PAs is a tiny sample size. It's very encouraging, but it's still tiny.
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Nobody is arguing that having 2 good pitches is better than 3 or 4, but my point is that if Pom can regain form with his two pitches, he can do very well again. Yes, two-pitch starters have a harder time when one is not working, but when both are working, Pom can be successful.
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I'm trying to stay optimistic. I'm hoping they are just being super precautious.
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He certainly has looked good for 32 PAs and has showed his athleticism for years. It's interesting to note that he probably would not have been given a chance this year, if he still had an option left.
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Has baseball changed all that much in 1 year? Last year, 2 pitch starters could do well, but now they can't? If Pom regains his velocity and control, is he still doomed to fail out of a lack of a 3rd pitch?
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I've always felt Swihart was probably a better hitter than Vaz and Leon. To me, it's always been about his defense in comparison to Vaz/Leon. He's looked good, when he gets a chance here and there, but it's hard for me to judge every aspect of his defense from my living room. It would be awesome, if he can hit near or over .800 for a long stretch. He'd only need a little improvement on his defense from his last long look to win more playing time behind the plate. Hitting near .800 would also get him more chances at other slots.
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We're talking about his last 32 PAs, so let's have some context. I love what he's doing and hope he continues, but he has not done well for long enough to make any definitive statement about his role going forward. He's filled in nicely for Vaz, who incidentally, had just hit .860 in June over 60 PAs- a much larger sample size than Swihart's recent run.
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Before tonight's loss, we had won 4 in a row (1.000), 6 out of 8 (.750), 9 out of 12 (.750) and 19 out of 23 (.826). If this is "malaise" bring it on! Even counting tonight's loss, we've won 19 of our last 24 games (.792).
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Other than Kimbrel, we don't have big name RP'ers, but our pen has done very well for over 2 years without getting much recognition. Team RP'er WAR rankings from 2016 to 2017 (30 teams x 3 seasons =90 rankings): 5th BOS 2017 WAR 7.0 19th BOS 2018 (season not over) WAR 4.8 T27th BOS 2016 WAR 4.7 4th best WAR last year. 4th best this year. Our pen is not a weakness. Yes, the Yanks have been better, but that doesn't mean we can't win with an inferior pen to one team in the AL. 2017-2018 combined 15.9 NYY 11.8 BOS 10.4 HOU 10.1 MIL Saying our pen can't win games on it's own is a gross exaggeration.
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I liked the Kinsler trade. I do think it would have been nice to get a solid #2 RP'er,especially when it seems the prices were low this year, but I don't think it was worth trading for a RP'er who is close to the same as what we have. We already have about 12 RP'ers fighting for 6 slots.... some without options.
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So was 2016 and 2017 total smoke and mirrors, or is it possible Pom can get back what he had then?
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It's not like I'd bet on Pom turning it around, but isn't there a chance the reason he sucked earlier this year was due to an injury that was not noticed until later? Couldn't the time off and rehab cause a turn around? Hasn't he had great halves and poor halves in his career already? I just try not to definitively judge anyone on short sample sizes, and to me, a half season is small for a SP'er who may have been pitching injured. Pom proved he could pitch in 2016 and 2017. I'm not sure his one half of 2018 is the "real" Pom.
