moonslav59

When I mentioned Beltre, I thought of Vlad, too.

I think you hit on something here. It's one reason why I liked having Beltre in the middle of a line-up full of patient, disciplined hitters. It messes up the pitcher. It seems like our current hitters are all from pretty much the same mold. We are too predictable and too similar in approach. Of course, we should not abandon the philosophy that OBP is the single best predictor or scoring more runs, but it helps to have at least one masher among all the OBP guys, especially in a day and age where mashing is becoming the standard. We don't have to choose either or. We can keep the patient OBP batters and just add one or two power guys and have the best of both worlds. Plus, it's not like JD has a horrible OBP.

For argument's sake, which of these choices look best to you? A) Sign JD Matinez and keep everyone. No SP'er upgrade beyond minor league deals. CF JBJ DH JD 1B Moreland/HRam 5th SP Wright/Velazquez/Johnson/Beeks Sign JD Martinez and trade JBJ for Danny Salazar CF: Beni LF: Martinez 1B: Moreland/HRam DH: HRam/Brentz 5th SP: Salazar C) Sign JD Matinez and trade JBJ, Chavis and Beeks (and more?) for Archer CF: Beni LF: JD 1B: Moreland/HRam DH: HRam/Brentz 3rd SP: Archer D) Sign Darvish and add no significant batter. CF: JBJ 1B: Moreland/HRam DH: HRam/Brentz (Chavis?) 2nd SP: Darvish

Interesting. Thanks for the links.

What would we have to add to JBJ to get Archer? Groome or Chavis plus Johnson or Beeks?

I don't want us to radically change our philosophy, but we have to keep opposing pitchers honest. It often seems like the most hittable pitch throw in many PAs was the first pitch thrown, and we took far too many of those pitches. It reminds me of the choice to bunt or not bunt. I hate bunting, but if you don't do it a few times, the opposing teams will start playing you not to bunt and move back, thereby lessening your chances for a hit when you swing away. Keep the opponents guessing.

So would Adrian Beltre.

career PAs - after count (OPS) 2902 after 1-0 (.916) 3474 after 0-1 (.716) As you can see, he started off 0-1 a lot more than 1-0. I'd like to see the numbers on non-swinging first pitches- how many were strikes vs balls.

He didn't swing that often, but you are right. Out of 6,743 career PAs, Pedey has only put the ball in play on the first pitch 361 times. He was HBP 6 times. He has an .860 OPS on those PAs. (.337 BA) I'm not sure how to find out how many times he swung at the first pitch, but I'm pretty sure he's near the lowest percent in MLB.

Here's an interesting factoid: A Sox player has HR'd 20 or more times only 13 times in the past 5 years. 5 in 2016 (38 Papi, 31 Betts, 30 HRam, 26 JBJ, 21 Bogey) 4 in 2017 (24 Betts, 23 HRam, 22 Moreland, 20 Beni) 2 in 2013 (30 Papi & 23 Napoli) 1 in 2015 (37 Papi) 1 in 2014 (35 Papi) Team HRs 208 - 2016 178 - 2013 168 - 2017 161 - 2015 124 - 2014

Taking the first pitch so often bugs the hell out of me, too. Pedey is the worst, and I think he influences others. BTW, in 2017, Pedey had a .668 OPS after starting off 0-1. (Career .716)

One should expect several "career years" from younger than prime players as they near their prime years. JBJ went from a .832 OPS in 2015 to .835 as he entered his prime stage. Not atypical. Bogey's OPS went up 26 points from 2015 (age 22) to 2016 (age 23). This is certainly not atypical. Also, his bWAR went down from 4.6 in 2015 to 3.7 in 2016. It went to 2.2 in 2017. Now, that is "atypical". Yes, Betts had his best-by-far season, and Papi had his most wildly successful season in a long time. Leon & Young had less 285 PAs. Holt had more PAs than both of these two and had his worst OPS year than his previous two seasons. You left him off your list. Pedey had a 5.2 WAR year in 2013, so 2016's 5.4 was not very "atypical". To me, the near total decline from 2016 to 2017 by all but Vaz is way more atypical than 2016's success stories.

Mexican Pacific League Update: Recently signed infielder (Jesus) Esteban Quiroz continues to see action as the regular second baseman for Mazatlan. He appeared in six games, going 4 for 23. Hector Velazquez was excellent in his second start of the winter league, giving up just one hit in four shutout innings, striking out three and walking one.

The season ticket office just reported a huge spike in activity!

If we don't get JD? We could get Darvish, but I doubt we do. I could see us going after Cobb or Lynn. If we do get JD, I could see us trading JBJ, Johnson and Hembree for Danny Salazar.

More on Porcello: let's take away the durability factor that WAR gives for more IP. Let's look at the top 75 AL starters (5 teams x 5 starters) by setting the IP at 90. (Note: I am not taking away from the value of getting 200+ IP out of Porcello every season: that value is enormous most years and still very valuable for a 2017 Porcello-like season, but let's look where he ranks performance wise among all AL starters.) ERA- (starter slot by groups of 15) 2017: 42nd at 102 (3rd starter) 2016: 4th at 72 (1 away from 1st)- (ACE) 2015: 60th at 118 (worst 4th starter) 2014: 28th at 89 (with Tigers) (low number 2 starter) So, he's been an ace, a #2, a #3 and a #4 over the past 4 years--never a number 5. That averages to a bout a 2/3 type starter. There are 78 AL pitchers with 300+ IP from 2014-2017 (combined). Here's where Porcello and Sox pitchers rank: ERA- 2. Sale 72 (ACE) 7. Price 80 (ACE) 16. Pomeranz 85 (Top number 2) 32. Porcello 94 (Top number 3) 37. ERod 97 (Number 3) WHIP 1. Sale 1.02 (ACE) 5. Price 1.13 (ACE) 29. Porcello 1.24 (Bottom #2) 41. ERod 1.29 (#3) 48. Pomeranz 1.32 (Top #4) Looks like Porcello is right between a 2 and a 3 starter. Now, for the durability factor: it's pretty telling that one has to lower the IP to 80 or 90 to reach a sample size of 75 AL starting pitchers. The 37th ranked IP starter had 145 IP. That's the middle guy out of 75 SP'ers. Porcello put up about 60 more IP than the middle guy! The 15 SP'er intervals and IP: 15. Vargas 179.2 30. Montgomery 155.1 45. Paxton 136.0 60. E Ramirez 100.2 75. Andriese 83.0

I'm not expecting a 2016 season from Porcello. I have said many times somewhere between 2016 and his career norm (which is better than 2017) is not a far-fetched wish. I'll settle for the career norm Porcello, which is maybe a low 2 starter high 3 starter by some standards or a low 3 starter by others. Having him as our 4th starter is a plus- not a minus.

If we get JD, I doubt we get a decent SP'er. If we don't we should be able to use some budget space to get a decent 4/5 starter.

I get that, but I think there is a strong negative connotation to being labelled 10th best out of 30. To me, there is not much difference between the top 10, or at least 3-10, so (IMO) I don't think the ranking diminishes my view on JBJ's value. He's also a very good base runner, Together, these factors help lessen the negatives associated with his inconsistent hitting. IMO, he has a lot of value, and other GMs know it and want him. I would not choose to trade a cost-effective player like JBJ. He still has 3 years of control remaining. Our pitchers need JBJ having their backs. .

I want us to try and get a solid SP'er. I think our pen is good to start the season. We can add to it, if needed mid season. I'm not sure what the spending budget is, but I still don't see a legitimate clean-up hitter on our roster. Devers may fill the 5 slot nicely, but he might be better suited for the 6 slot. To me, that is our number one priority right now.

Happy Saint Stephen's Day!

Not nessisarily, just because he may be the 10th best defensive CF'er, it doesn't mean he's way worse than anyone ahead of him. Plus, how many of the better defenders hit and run the bases as well as JBJ? Then, how many are up for grabs this winter?

We don't need Cy Young from Porcello. He could give us a 2017 Pomeranz-type season. If we also get Pom to repeat the 2017 Pom, we're looking very good before we actually get to the true two CY-caliber starters- Sale & Price. Yes, that's a lot of "ifs", but the 4 solid starters we have stack up nicely vs anybody elses, and if ERod returns mid season, we could be looking very tough as long as injuries don't bite us too hard. Our pen could improve a lot and take some pressure off our starters, and we could rest them more than we did this year.

JBJ did put together two seasons in a eow between .830 and .835. I realize both of those seasons were fueled by having one phenomenal month, but I agree. He could easily have a .900 or even .950 month by just having 2 great months or just not being so awful in the other 4-5 months. He could maybe hit 30 HRs some season soon,

It's UZR/150. I'm no expert on the formula, but it makes more sense to me, to trust it than observers like us, who watch other players just a handful of games each year. It measures all the balls hit into a players zone (the "Z" in UZR). Trained observers, who naturally will add a subjective element into the numbers try to determine that catchability factor of each ball hit into a player's zone. Based on the difficulty of the play, players are rewarded more for making more difficult plays than easier ones. Perhaps, because JBJ makes some difficult plays look easier, he gets dinged when he shouldn't, but still, the overall methodology and theory of UZR/150 makes a lot of sense to me. I know it is not perfect, but they rotate the observers to try an minimize personal bias, and all of the observers are trained and cross checked tested. There's no way I can possibly know for sure, if there are 9-10 better CF'ers in MLB than JBJ. It's just something I can never know for sure. Since I have watched just about every play of ever Sox dame since the early 80's, I can compare him to other Sox CF'ers and say with certainty that he is the best defensive Sox CF I have seen. Being ranked about 10th does not seem right to me, and UZR/150 should not be the only tool used to rank defenders, but there is a strong chance there are 11-12 great defensive CF'ers in MLB today- just as good or better than JBJ. Saying 10 or 11 are better does not make JBJ any worse than we all think he is. He's a great defender- he just may not be top 9 or 10.