moonslav59

Agrred. Once the big dominoes start to fall, DD may have to act quickly, which may include asking another player to wait to sign while he then gives JD a time limit- take it or leave it.

I can agree with that, but projections made with the age curve as part of projections will likely be way more accurate.

I had little faith in Bruce. He's had a couple decent seasons recently .832 and .815, but not really all that great. Yes, the 36 and 33 HRs the last two season would fill that clean-up slot nicely. Yes, $39M/3 beats the hell out of $125M/5. I just look back on 2014 (.654) and 2015 (.729) and he scares the hell out of me!

The games is not changing as much as the ways we evaluate player value, and now projected player value.

Gotcha. I doubt DD lets all his plan Bs and Cs sign elsewhere as he waits on JD. Since nobody is signing now, there's no sense of urgency. Once the dominoes begin to fall, a timed final offer may be needed.

Yes, I agree, and it also goes beyond budget limits. It has to do with how much of an overpay is acceptable and how much value is projected from JD.

I wouldn't be shocked (or heartbroken), if JD signs elsewhere, as long as we make some sort of significant improvement over our 2017 team (on paper).

If BorA$$ wants the Sox to up their offer to top another, he wouldn't suggest JD want to play the OF over DH'ing. To me, that is a clue that we have the best offer, and BorA$$ is trying to get another team interested by thinking maybe they just need to come close to the Sox offer, and JD will choose them, because they can promise FT OF.

Counting rookie seasons as part of the "norm" is not realistic. Betts, Bogey and JBJ all had worse seasons than 2016 or 2017. All are just entering prime years. Pedey is at the end of prime. Expecting a worse 2017 than 2015 and 2016 in not unrealistic, but he's still young enough to have an uptick here and there, assuming good health. HRam has traditionally been up and down. It's not unrealistic to think he could hit .850 in 2018. Yes, JBJ, Beni and Devers are too hard to identify what their "norm" is, so it's even harder to expect a "regression" to something so nebulous.

No, just improve over 2017. Many declined over 2016 numbers as well: .832 JBJ .820 Betts .797 Pedey .776 Bogey .727 Holt HRam was at .817 in 2014. I'm not asking for career bests, but actually, we should expect one of two from our 5 or 6 players between 21 and 28 to have their best seasons (or close to it).

Maybe, but why would someone suddenly realize they have an OF need and that kind of money to spend? The only reason I could see a late bidder enter the market, is if a team thought JD was going to get $150M/6 and now realizes the top bid is just $125M/5 and now wants in. How many teams fit that mold? (None?) Another reason could be some key player gets hurt in a motorcycle accident or whatever in the next few weeks. It could just be the Sox vs the Jays.

If we got Moose, there would be no DH platoon. Moose greatly improves our IF defense. Moose gives us the power clean-up hitter we need. Devers greatly improves our DH numbers. He could play 1B vs LHPs and DH vs RHPs. Moreland plays 1B vs all RHPs. HRam plays 1B vs all LHPs. HRam DHs when Moose or Devers need a day off. The platoon is 1B not DH. (We could also try to dump HRam.)

Who is saying they are "instruments?" Most people reach their primes after 24 or so. It's not dehumanizing people to expect improvement as they gain experience, confidence and strength and then decline as their bodies begin to break down.

It's probably much better than throwing a dart. Age progression and decline charts are real. Of course, several players bust out of the norm and have great beginning or ends to their careers, but most follow pretty close to the norm with a few blips here and there- possibly related to injuries. This is one reason I felt it was very odd that 9 out of our top 10 returning players from 2016 saw declines in their OPS- some very significant ones. Only Vaz saw an uptick. Since most of our players were pre-prime or prime, and the others were not far beyond peak prime, I felt it was very strange. Yes, the loss of Papi and nagging injuries contributed to some declines, but I'm expecting upticks for a solid majority of our returning players this year. 2016 OPS> 2017 OPS (Listed in order or most PAs in 2016 (110+ PAs)/ Player & age .897> .803 Betts 23 .802> .746 Bogey 23 .825> .760 Pedey 32 .835> .726 J.B.Jr 26 .866> .750 HRam 32 .705> .548 BHolt 28 .845> .644 SLeon 27 .850> .709 Young 32 .585> .735 Vazqz 25 .835> .776 ABeni 21 Amount of decline/ Player/ Age in 2017 201 Leon 28 157 Holt 29 141 Young 33 116 HRam 33 109 JBJ 27 94 Betts 24 65 Pedey 33 59 Beni 22 56 Bogey 24 +150 Vaz 26 Nobody was over 33 to start the 2017 season. All but Vaz declined. Okay, throw out the top 3 and Vaz from this list for being reserve (platoon) players, but we still see 6 of 6 declines from players between 22 and 34, including 3 by 94 or more points! All six declined by more than 55 points. It wasn't even close for our 6 best returning players. Add Moreland to the next list and possibly Vaz (if he increases his PAs this season) and we have 8 core players plus Devers (.819 in 2017). I'm pretty certain we see upticks in 5 of those 8 players. I expect Vaz to decline and maybe Pedey. Certainly HRam and Moreland can do worse or the same, but I would bet on all 4 of these guys declining next year. (I actually think HRam will top .790 which is already 40 points higher than 2017.) Of course, the odds are at least one from the other 5 declines, but I'm betting 5 or more improve their OPS. (I'm not counting Devers.)

So, couldn't expected "upticks" that would bring several players closer to their prior 2-3 year "norms" be viewed as a return to the expectations or "positive regression"?

I think it's a long shot he make the ML roster even in 2019, but hope springs eternal sometimes, even in winter.

Certainly many players in the history of MLB, especially those in pre-prime, early prime or mid prime, bounce back from a "down year or two" and go on to have "normal" or "better" seasons. Sure, the reason the dipped at an unexpected time on the age/production curve (like so many Sox players last year) could be "wear and tear", but it could also be non-severe, injury related, personal issues or many other reasons. Maybe we're arguing semantics, but I, for one, am expecting more upticks than down ticks or leveling out from these young Sox players: Betts Bogey JBJ Beni I'm expecting 3 out of 4 to have a significantly higher WAR next year. Call it age curve expected, call it random, call it "positive regression" or call it whatever you want, but I'm thinking it happens for the Sox this year. Hell, we may even see upticks from HRam, Moreland and even Pedey, when he returns.

Change of subject: here's a look at our top prospects according to soxprospects.com by age group and ranking: Red= ML Ready or possibly ML Ready at some point this season. 19 and under 1. Groome 19 3. B Mata 18 7. C Brannen 19 9. A Scherff 19 15. R Raudes 19 17. D Diaz 17 20-22 2. Chavis 22 4. T Houck 21 6. Ockimey 22 14. D Hernandez 21 23-25 5. S Travis 24 8. M Shawaryn 23 10. J Beeks 24 12. CJ Chatham 23 13. B Dalbec 22 16. J Thompson 23 18. T Lin 23 19. T Lakins 23 26+ 11. B Johnson 27 20. B Brentz 29 21. A Maddox 26 22. H Velazquez 29

We could probably sign Morrison and a decent SP'er for much less money & years than JD. If we can find a taker for HRam and a decent chunk of his contract, we might be able to get Arrieta & Morrison.

If we are really looking at JD as a DH, then maybe plan B could still be... Logan Morrison as a DH Moustakas at 3B & move Devers to DH.

He won't even get $30M x 4 or 5 years, let alone 6. To me, these types of demands or "leaks" make it less likely anyone new enters the bidding and more likely we eventually set a timeline and walk away, if needed.

If Pedey was a FA at the time of the signing, coming off a total 17.5 WAR over his previous 3 seasons, he'd have gotten significantly more than $14M x 8. I still think it was a steal when compared to the market.

If the bidding gets too high for JD, I still think we may have missed an opportunity to get a slugger and improve our infield defense by signing Moustakas and moving Devers to 1B/DH. As few bidders there seem to be for JD, I'm not sure anyone is looking seriously at Moose. The Moreland signing probably put an end to any 3B searches.

That .797 OPS with STL was the best he had in 3 years. In those 3 years, he never had more than 14 HRs, 60 RBIs or a SLG% abobe .440. JBJ has done better than that. Is he known for his bat?

lol!