It's imperative that we don't pick up Hanley's vested option for 2019. We will absolutely not extend Porcello after 2019. I can see Sox shopping him if a viable alternative surfaces in our farm system. It would also help if we don't have a need for Kimbrel in 2019 and beyond.
Basically we can use Hanley's money to sign Pom (his $8.5M for 2018 is already baked in, so it's a delta of say $11.5M to give him a $20M deal). That still leaves around $9M from Hanley's contract that can even go for Kimbrel. He's already making $13M.
Sale's new contract can come from the money we're paying Sandoval right now. That's $19M in savings plus what Chris is making right now to get him to $30M plus.
Luxury tax limit will jump to $206M in 2019 or $9M increase. That amount should cover much of the arbitration raises from 2018 to 2019.
Basically we're good through 2020, window of 3 years. Younger kids need to emerge over the next three years.
The arb costs will rise significantly, so that will eat up a good chunk or HRam and Pablo's departing deals over the next few years.
Porcello's $20M may help, but if he does well over the next two years, replacing him for $20M might be difficult.
I agree the "window" goes to 2020 not 2019, but we also have to consider the tax rates go up every time you go over the limit in consecutive years. If we go over in 2019 and 2020 we'll be in the 3rd year penalty phase, and it will be very costly to Henry. A problem might arise, if Henry decides to reset after 2019, then 2020 might be outside the "window."