moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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...and HRam's and Price's and...
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He hit lefties !.073) as well as righties (1.009) in single A. He only had 45 ABs vs LHPs at AA (.602). He hit .846 vs RHPs in AA. Being 5-10 is not ideal for 1B, but it's not unheard of either.
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If we knew he could do that at the ML level and play plus defense, he'd probably be worth the added cost the tax would bring. That's a big "if."
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Maybe not enough value to justify the added cost.
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Yes, I mentioned the problem arises in future years as the tax rate is liable to go way up. Even if Castillo does well as a 4th OF'er, his cost may be too high year 3 or 4. He'd pretty much have to be starting to earn the "added cost", if our tax rate is 50% plus the second penalty rate costs. If he does not do well, the cost could really hurt. That is why I do not think he ever gets called up to the 40 man roster.
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His "added cost" would just be 20% or 32% (if we go over the second level tax line) for 2018. That's just about $2.5 to $3.5M. That's much less than we paid Young for 2 years. The problem arises for 2019 and 2020, if we reach higher tax rates due to consecutive years over the luxury tax limit, but even then, if he's doing well, he might be worth it.
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Yes, for many players, ages 31-34 or so are their best years.
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Unless, that team has asked not to be named. Maybe that team might have a player that would feel bad, if he knew the team was thinking of replacing, demoting or moving him to another position to make room for JD.
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That's exactly how I see it. Just because the Sox look like the best fit for JD and his contract, does not mean we have to grossly overpay or outbid everyone (nobody) else. I hope DD gave a fair offer and won't go so much higher that it reaches the stupidity level. If $125M/5 won't get it done, I might add a $5M option buyout on a $20M year 6, making it a $130M/5 (but $130M/6 on luxury tax) deal that JD can take or leave. I'm only mildly concerned about our plan B and C being taken before JD decides, but if the flurry of signings begin, that sentiment may change.
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I see him as being "the guy to beat," but it's not his already. Holt, Quiroz, Lin and Marrero (out of options) may challenge this spring.
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Turning DPs is not an easy task for many MLB players. I don't see Swihart or Chavis doing it at an acceptable level of competence.
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Agreed. Best outcome? I'd love to see a Longorian extension.
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Perhaps, Chavis is not physically equipped to handle 2B.
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Maybe an offer of $115M/5 with a $5M option buy out for year 6 (counts as $120M/6 on the luxury tax budget) of a $15M sixth year ($135M/6)
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I have little faith in Brentz, but he should get a chance.
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I'm not sure his defense is that good. If it was, I doubt he'd be in this situation, but let's assume it is very good. By adding him to the 40 man roster, his actual added cost to Henry would only be the tax. 20% on $11M is a pretty good deal for a good 4th OF'er. If we go over the second level, it's 32%. That's not bad either. The issue arises, if we go over the luxury tax 2 or 3 years in a row. The tax goes up and up, and if Castillo struggles, the cost becomes steep.
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I was thinking more of his frame of mind for signing an extension.
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Adding the tax paid for adding Rusney to the 40 man roster is irrevocable. As we stay over the limit in future years, the tax just goes up and up. While Rusney may be better than Brentz or Barfield, if possibly only just slightly, the cost is probably too prohibitive.
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Yeah, instead of sending Myers to the OF, just sign JD over Hosmer. I've not heard their named linked to JD, though.
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If the Sox had put their number at $8.5M, they'd almost surely win the arb ruling. I kinda hope Mookie wins, so he won't be as upset at the Sox.
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We'll see. Nobody thought EE would sign for $60M/3. My guess is JD will sign closer to $100M/5 than $210M/7.
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I'm not sure any other team would go much higher than $100M/5. Maybe Boras leaked that number (accurate or not) as a way to draw some more teams into the bidding. Maybe some teams stayed away, because they felt they needed to go higher than $125M/5 to compete. I still think we have or will have the highest bid, and I doubt he ends up getting more than $125M/5.
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If there is a higher offer, and I agree that there may not be, I think DD will go above $100M/5. That's EE money with 2 more years.
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If he ends up getting $125-130M/5, the Sox "low ball" offer of $100M will end up being much closer to the actual amount given that the Boras starting point.
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I can't see AZ offering more than $100M/5. There was talk the Jays were interested, but I haven't heard anything concrete. If the Sox are prepared to go as high as $125M/5 (Maybe $130M/5 as part of the option 6th year to lower the AVV), I doubt anyone will bid higher. If they do, let's move on.
