moonslav59

I'm hopeful DD has 2-3 other options in mind, and when those start to sign or are close to signing, he'll give Boras/JD a timed ultimatum.

Not on my list. I'd add Moustakas, Nunez, Duda and maybe more before I make Hosmer my option B.

I'm not saying Hosmer is equal to Moreland. He's marginally better, but these numbers don't lie: Hosmer is Moreland without the defense every even year, or at least equal to Moreland's every other year. Moreland's OPS+ 118 in 2010 106 in 2012 99 in 2013 116 in 2015 99 in 2017 Hosmer's even years: 81 in 2012 99 in 2014 102 in 2016 Years at 106 OPS+ or better Moreland 3 out of 8 Hosmer 4 out of 7 To be fair... Years at or above 99 Moreland 5 out of 8 Hosmer 6 out of 7 UZR/150 Career Moreland +5.4/ +18 DRS (4 of 8 seasons above 5.8) EHosmer -4.1/-21 DRS (0 of 7 seasons above 2.2) WAR Moreland 1 of 8 seasons at or below 0.0. EHosmer 3 of 7 seasons at or below 0.0.

So, 29 will mark the stoppage of the yo-yo syndrome? No, thanks. I'd rather sign the guy (JD) who has had an OPS+ above 139 for 4 straight years, despite the age difference.

He's barely an upgrade over Moreland, but is expected to get 5+ years at $20M a year. To me, anything over about $36M/3 will be an overpay. $100M/5 is a gross overpay. He's not the great fielder some think he is. In fact, he's a negative. The OPS+ Yo-Yo... 118 81 118 99 122 102 132 Every even year he is average. Every odd year he is better. His 2017 132+ OPS is 10 better than any previous season (outlier alert?) He has been up and down his whole career, so expecting him to repeat 2017 would be a first.

Everything in me says Hosmer would be a terrible signing.

Since Boston is apparently not on the 6 team list Yu Darvish is considering, I guess our "option B" might be Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb or LoMo.

From soxprospects.com Mexican Pacific League http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/01/fallwinter-league-roundup-velazquez.html They Mayos de Navojoa trotted out game one winner Hector Velazquez (pictured) in the fifth game of their semifinal series against Jalisco. Despite a very strong effort by the righty, Navajoa dropped a 3-0 decision. Velazquez allowed just one run on three hits in five innings, striking out three without issuing a walk, and inducing eight groundball outs. Overall, Velazquez surrendered only two runs in 10 innings in his two starts in the semi-final series. Navojoa prevailed in game six to advance to the league championship series against Culiacan. Velazquez is likely to start in game three on Tuesday if Navojoa holds to its rotation, with los Mayos in a 2-0 hole.

It does seem like teams prefer to trade for more ML- ready players thyan far-away ones, but GMs still value high ceiling prospects. We got 2.5 seasons of Pomeranz for Espinoza.

The sample contains all 58 SSs who qualified in that time period, including SSs who retired or just had one qualifying season (rookie and second year SSs.) As for 2017 boosting his ranking, of course it did, but can I remove every other SSs best year from their ranking, too? Here's the list of SSs from 2012-2016 (NO 2017): Cozart ranks 14th out of 50. (He ranks 13th out of 23 among SSs with 2000+ PAs.) He ranked 4th out of 21 in UZR/150 from 2012-2016. +10.7 is awesome defense. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Also, his BABIP was only 30 points above his career .280 mark. His OPS increase was also largely fueled by his BB% being nearly double his career numbers (%12.2 to 6.4%) and his ISO number being 100 points over his career norm- neither is related to the "luck factor" associated with BABIP.

From 2012-2017, Cozart ranks as the 8th best SS, by WAR, out of 58 who qualified. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 That's big sample size. If you go by just the 28 SSs with 2,000+ PAs, he ranks 6th out of 28. While his .714 OPS ranks 16th out of 28, his UZR/150 ranks 4th. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d BTW, 32 is "early 30's" not "mid 30's".

Wow! Not to worry, the cliff naysayers claim our farm will be "replenished" in no time. (Losing Flores did not help.)

Many are post prospect, now.

My bad. 14 HRs and 29 (2B+3B) in 452 ABs last season is not bad.

With not much else to talk about, here's a conversation starter. Whether you believe in a short window or a cliff or not, we can probably all agree on the idea that we'll have a much better chance at winning in the next 3 years as well as beyond, if we can somehow get some serious contributions from within our current farm system. That could mean some big contributions from 1 or 2 guys or moderate contributions from several players. I'm going to divide the prospects into groups and then examine each group as a whole. (Rankings by soxprospects.com and age listed) The Power Guys: #2Michael Chavis (age 22), #20 Bryce Brentz (age 29) & #NR Jeremy Barfield (age 29): All hit over 28 HRs last year after never really showing that kind of power before. Brentz & Barfield are 29 and could be late bloomer surprises, but the odds are stacked against them ever making a serious impact at the big league level. Chavis offers the most hope but seems to be a man without a position. He may be too undersized to play 1B and not athletic enough to play 3B or LF. Maybe DH will be his only true opportunity. What are the odss just one of these guys makes a significant impact? I'd say maybe closer to 25% than 40%. The Fringe First Basemen: One could count Chavis in this group, but I'll go with #5 Sam Travis (age 24), #6 Josh Ockimey (age 22) & #13 Bobby Dalbec (age 22- plays 3B). Travis is nearing the do or die part of his career. He lacks the true power one expects at 1B, but he could become a solid bench player with a long shot at developing more power as he ages. Ockimey has more raw talent but has also shown limited power. Dalbec plays 3B, but he's listed as 6-4. If Devers remains our FT 3Bman, Bobby could be a long shot choice for 1B after Moreland's deal ends. Significant impact chances? I'd say closer to 10% than 20%. The Middle Infielders: #12 CJ Chatham (age 23), #18 Tzu-Wei Lin (age 23) & #23 Brett Netzer (age 21) make up this unflattering group. While Lin has shown some flashes of plus defense and quality utility value, I'm not too hopeful anyone makes a meaningful contribution to this team. I'd put the odds at closer to 5% than 10%. The Ready Starters: #22 Hector Velazquez (age 29), #11 Brian Johnson (age 27), #23 Mike Shawaryn (age 23), #10 Jalen Beeks (age 24) all show some promise. I actually like Velazquez as the "sleeper prospect" on the farm. Johnson has teased a few times. I'll go optimistic here and say the odds are closer to 25% than 15% one of these guys becomes a decent 4/5 SP'er. The Far Away Starters: #1 Jay Groome (age 19), #3 Bryan Mata (age 18), #4 Tanner Houck (age 21), #9 Alex Scherff (age 19), #14 Darwinzon Hernandez (age 21), #15 Roniel Raudes (age 20) make up the hardest group to project but perhaps the highest ceiling group of all. Mata and Hernandez might surprise, but Groome and Houck seem to get most of the accolades. Scherff is young while Raudes seemed to take a step backwards last year. There's a lot of players in this group- some with rather high ceilings. I'm going to say the chances are closer to 85% than 70% one of these guys becomes at least a 3/4 SP'er. The Long Shots: #16 Jake Thompson (age 23), #19 Travis Lakins & #26 Chandler Shepherd (age 25) are not likely to contribute. I'd say 5% odds are as high as I'd go. The Groups of their Own: #21 Austin Maddox RP (age 26), #7 Cole Brannen OF (age 19),#17 Danny Diaz 3B (age 17), #25 Ben Taylor (age 25) & #27 Aneury Tavarez don't really fit in any of the previous groups. I like Maddox and think he will be in the pen for a few years to come. Not counting Austin, I'll give the rest odds closer to 20% than 10% with Brannen showing the most promise. Put these odds all together, and one could argue we show a lot of promise, but I don't see the odds of producing one or more blue chippers as being even moderately possible. We could end up with a mess of role players not really good enough to lead us to a ring, but filling out the 40 man roster nicely. The 2020 40 man roster: SP: Price, _____, ______, ERod, Wright/Velazquez Mata, Houck, Beeks, Shawaryn, Johnson, Thompson(?) RP:Smith, _____, Barnes, Workman, Maddox, Hernandez, Shepherd C: Vazquez, Leon, Swihart 1B: ______, Travis, Ockimey 2B: Pedey, Hernandez 3B: Devers, Chavis or Dalbec SS: ______, Lin or Chatham LF: Beni, Brentz, Brannen or Tavarez CF: JBJ RF: Betts DH: (JDMartinez?)

Plus, he's had an OPS+ of over 139 for 4 straight seasons!

Unless he signs for $39M/3, he'll be the worst.

Hosmer will end up being the worst signing this year (per dollar).

You mean his half season in 2013? The trend comps are night and day. OPS+ (* 105 or less games played) Age HRam JD 26 126 154 27 95* 139 28 105 142 29 189* 166 30 132 ? 31 89* ? 32 126 ? 33 95 ? JD has been consistently between 139 and 166 for 4 straight years. HRam has been a yo-yo.

It is? I wish the rest of the Sox could "slow" their bats down like JD's.

Could kinda say the same about every Business. The entertainment business is priced way out of whack for many people to enjoy live- not just sports. Look at the price of a concert these days- even for crappy old fogey bands.

It's no secret I was against signing Moreland, but the very best part about the signing was that it took us out of the Hosmer sweepstakes.

I really think JD is the domino holding up everything else. Players and agents are waiting, in hopes the Sox miss out on JD and enter the bidding on the top secondary free agents still out there (Darvish, Arrieta, LoMo, Lynn, Cobb...). The history... QO signings Winter 2016-2017 LAD signed 2 of 8 (Turner & Jansen) Winter 2015-2016 LAD signed 1 of 14 (Kendrick) Winter 2013-2014 NYY signed 4 of 13 (Beltran, Ellsbury, Kuroda & McCann)

Or, the threat of Machado is gamesmanship by DD to try and stress the point that we are not desperate for JD.

We could always just sign a pitcher and Duda, if LomO goes elsewhere.