moonslav59

Plus, Beni's numbers need to improve vs LHPs, or else we'll have an easy choice.

That's why I'm fine with Betts up 2nd.

We start the season with Leon, Swihart, Moreland and Marrero on the bench. Holt starts in AAA and carries a cell phone with him every minute-waiting for a call up. When Pedey comes back, a decision needs to be made on Marrero. We'll have Nunez as a back-up and Holt still holding a phone. Lin & Quiroz are also options. I think Marrero goes, when Pedey returns. Until then, I don't see any issues, unless Holt is already penciled in on the 25.

Spread out pretty well. Plan resting OF'ers and JD accordingly.

Whoever needs a rest or JBJ vs RHPs and Beni vs LHPs.

We also have depth issues in the OF, and with Nunez playing 2B and JD sucking on defense and trying to stay healthy, Swihart is a good option for LF. He won't play 1B much, unless HRam or Moreland gets hurt. I start the season with Moreland, leon, Swihart and Marrero on the bench. Holt has options, so he goes to AAA. When Pedey returns, Nunez is not the IF depth, and although his defense is lacking, he's a better bench option than marrero. I can see that when Pedey reeturns, we may want marrero over a catcher, but guys like Marrero are everywhere...and some have options.

2016-2018 (which includes HRam's horrific 2016 season) 350+ PAs .987 Papi .842 Betts .799 Pedey .793 JBJ .785 HRam .785 Beni .776 Bogey .773 Young .769 Moreland .754 Shaw .713 Swihart .693 Napoli .691 Holt .688 Leon .683 Vaz .646 Pablo

Sox OPS leaders from 2016-2017 (250+ PAs) 1.021 Papi .851 Betts .811 HRam .799 Pedey .785 Beni .784 JBJ .776 Bogey .773 Young .769 Moreland .741 Leon .726 Shaw .683 Vaz .653 Holt (170-250 PAs) .892 Nunez .819 Devers .613 Rutledge .577 A Hill .573 Marrero

Maybe, if you go by just 2017. Even then, he had our 5th best OPS, and Pedey starts the year on the DL. JD is better, so that keeps HRam at about 5th best by OPS. I'm much more hopeful that surgery actually helps a player get better than he was while playing hurt. HRam was clearly affected by his shoulder injury last year. They avoided playing him at 1B, and he did horrible vs LHPs, which is usually his strong area. My guess is, the shoulder really hurt his swing vs lefties. He was .069 below his career OPS vs RHPs. He was .218 below his career OPS vs LHPs. Sox hitters with 200+ PAs vs RHPs last year: .813 Beni .784 Moreland (will be on the bench) .771 Betts .769 HRam .739 Bogey .732 Vaz .729 Pedey .713 JBJ .612 Leon Look, I get the idea that HRam might suck this year, but I'm going with him until he shows me he does... or not.

The worst part about Vaz & Leon is that they both hit RHPs better than lefties, although the Sox never seem to care about lefty-righty with our catchers. We've gone the personal caddy route for as long as I care to remember.

Vaz may be a decent hitter going forward. Swihart can play more than catcher, so it's not like we are going to keep 3 strict catcher only players on the 25 man roster. I like the idea of being able to PH for Vaz or Leon late in games without worrying about a late inning catcher injury. I'd like to see Swihart get some reps at 1B (another reason for hating the Moreland signing). Swihart can also play LF- keeping Nunez at 2B and JD at DH. If there's an injury to a catcher, we'll be glad we kept all 3. If there's an injury at 1B or DH, Swihart can get more PAs. If an OF'er gets hurt, we could play Swihart in LF vs RHPs. Keep all options open. Keep all 3 catchers as long as possible.

...and if the staff, all of a sudden, has a jump in OPS against of 50-100 points, you won't blame it on swapping our Swihart for Leon in 40-60 games?

We do have an issue with IF depth, until Pedey returns, but my list was after Pedey returned. Nunez is the IF back-up, and we want to get him as many PAs as possible, so marrero would only act as a late inning defensive replacement for Nunez or maybe Pedey/Devers/Bogey. Assuming Nunez starts at 2B until Pedey returns, our bench can be Leon, Swihart, Moreland, Marrero with Holt at AAA. n(We could trade or DFA marrero and have Holt on the 25 man roster, if he seems to be over the concussions.)

We have $4-6M left, depending on mid season call-ups and contractual offsets and bonuses. That might get us a 2 month rental in July.

Manny was -20.2 from 2002 on. He was -90 DRS in 16335 innings, which is -8 per 162 games

Who is in the "consensus" that JD is as good as "mediocre" on defense? His UZR/150 and DRS numbers are well below average and even worse over the last 2 years. Out of 67 OF'ers with 1500+ innings in the OF from 2016 to 2017, guess where JD places in UZR/150? Yup, 67th at -18.4! He's 64th in DRS at -27. Think about that -27 number. He only played in the OF an equivalent of less than 222 games. That's about -20 per 162 games. He's not mediocre. He's not even decent on defense. That's why he's our new DH.

Do you not value how a catcher gets the most out of the staff? These pitchers all did better with Leon than Vaz: Pitcher w Leo / w Vaz +.403 Hembree .609 (133) / 1.012 (135) +.256 R Scott .476 (67) / .832 (74) +.179 Fister .666 (255) / .845 (137) +.126 M Barnes .592 (110) / .707 (174) +.102 Joe Kelly .546 (98) / .648 (127) +.066 CKimbrel .406 (97) / 472 (153) +.008 Porcello .824 (709) / .832 (176) These pitchers all did better with Vaz: -.032 B. Boyer .834 (76) / .802 (98) (Only pitchers with 60+ PAs with each catcher listed) Some of the variances are huge, in fact, 5 of the 8 pitchers had an OPS against of 100+ better with Leon. Awihart is supposedly worse than Vaz with pitchers, so one can imagine the OPS differentials when compared to Leon. Since OPS against for our staff involves all 9 hitters for the opposing team, Swihart might have to have an OPS of 1.800 to just bear even with a negative OPS differential of .200. I'm keeping Leon. I'm trying to keep Swihart as well, so we can PH for Leon (.638 vs RHPs) and Vaz (vs RHPs .657)

Brock has options: Leon does not. Holt starts off in AAA, if it was up to me.

Also, Boston would be able to make Martinez a qualifying offer, should he decide to opt out of the remaining three years of the deal...

Sox get medical language inserted into contract... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jd-martinez-redsox-contract-medical-protection-three-opt-outs.html ....Specifically, Drellich further reports, the Red Sox can convert both years four and five of the contract into mutual options, pursuant to the newly drawn up language. In essence, then, the Sox have negotiated their own means of walking away from the final two years of the contract in the event that Martinez’s foot proves to be a chronic condition. Per Drellich, should Martinez spend 60 consecutive days on the DL in year three of the contract (2020) with an injury related to his prior Lisfranc injury, the fourth year can be converted into a mutual option. Boston could also convert the fourth year to a mutual option should an injury pertaining to the prior Lisfranc issue prompt Martinez miss a combined 120 days between the second and third years of the deal (2019-20), with at least 10 of those days coming in year three. (The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo first tweeted that the team could render the fourth year a mutual option.) Boston is similarly protected in the fifth season of the contract. If an injury pertaining to his previous Lisfranc issue causes Martinez to miss 60 consecutive days in the fourth year of the deal (2021) or a combined 120 days in 2020-21 (with at least 10 in year four), then the 2022 season can be converted to a mutual option. All determinations about whether a new Lisfranc injury for Martinez is related to the 2017 injury would be made by a panel of three doctors. No wonder it took a week to finalize the deal!

I used to believe one should start making out a line-up card by putting your best overall hitter 3rd. Proof, I'm not rigid in my beliefs and opinions.

Out of the 8 pitchers who had 60+ PAs with both Vaz & Leon, 7 had a lower OPS against when Leon was catching. How much better does Swihart have to hit to make up for that? (Plus, Swihart is likely worse than Vaz with handling pitchers.) I hope Swi makes the team as our 3rd catcher, 5th LF'er and maybe 3rd 1Bman.

Me neither. OPS against by pitcher-catcher RED= better OPS Against with 60+ PAs with both catchers (7 to 1 Leon) with Leon/ with Vaz Sale .585 (824 PAs) 1.138 (27) Porcello .824 (709) / .832 (176) Fister .666 (255) / .845 (137) Hembree .609 (133) / 1.012 (135) M Barnes .592 (110) / .707 (174) Joe Kelly .546 (98) / .648 (127) CKimbrel .406 (97) / 472 (153) BJohnson .741 (96) / 1.127 (25) S. Wright 1.223 (87) / .912 (27) B. Boyer .834 (76) / .802 (98) R Scott .476 (67) / .832 (74) Fer Abad .851 (57) / .593 (125) Workman .818 (62) / .716 (94) with Vaz Pomeranz .697 (721) /1.297 (19) Tiny sample size Rodriguez .740 (579) / .000 (3) Teenie tiny Da. Price .666 (311) /.000 (6) Teenie tiny

That's assuming nobody else gets hurt, but if that happens after Pedey returns, our 4 man bench could be.... Leon C Swihart C, 1B, LF Nunez 2B, 3B, LF, SS, RF Moreland 1B, LF Holt in AAA Marrero traded or DFA'd when Pedey returns.

Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post If I could jump in here, based on what Kimmi has said in the past, you should probably have your 5th-best hitter in the #3 spot. My man. That's why I liked the idea of HRam batting 3rd. 1. Beni 2. Betts (our best hitter) 3. HRam (our 5th best hitter-maybe) 4. JD (our best power guy) 5. Devers 6. Nunez 7. Bogey 8. JBJ 9. Vaz