moonslav59

My number was 96, but I did not choose the 96-101 bracket, because I think there's less chance we win that amount of games than the 92-95 bracket. Here's a rough estimate of how I see our chances of winning x amount of games 90- 8% (rash of injuries) 91 7% 92 8% 93 11% 94 13% 95 15% 96 16% 97 13% 98 9% 99 4% 100 2% 101 1% 102+ 1% 92-95 wins is 47% 96-101 is 46%

Nice story with Poyner. I'm sure we'll be seeing guys like Scott, Maddox (DL), Thornburg (DL) and Elias called up at some point.

It looks like the 2018 25 man roster is pretty much set. It's time for Part II. Link to Part I: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18464-A-Realistic-View-at-2018-Part-I Here's a look at what I see might happen... My 2018 Projections (assuming no new injuries, which, admittedly, is not very realistic) Hitting PAs Player BA HR RBI (OBP/OPS/OPS) 720 Betts .300 30 110 (.375/.500/.875) 680 Beni .280 25 100 (.355/.445/.800) 650 Bogey .290 15 90 (.355/.415/.780) 600 JMart .290 45 135 (.380/.570/.950) 600 Devers .290 25 100 (.335/.465/.800) 600 JB Jr, .275 20 75 (.330/.420/.750) 500 Nunez .275 15 65 (.340/.430/.770) 450 HRam .270 15 70 (.335/.415/.750) 450 Vazq .260 8 50 (.320/.380/.700 400 Pedey .280 5 45 (.360/.390/.750) 400 Mi Mo .240 15 50 (.320/.400/.720) 350 Swi .265 10 35 (.330/.390/.720) 100 Leon .220 3 10 (.280/.360/..640) 100 Holt .270 2 10 (.320/.360/.680) Starting Pitchers GS/IP Pitcher W-L in starts ERA 33/210 Sale 24-9 3.00 32/200 Price 20-12 3.30 32/200 Porc 18-14 4.00 26/180 Pom 16-10 3.60 26/150 ERod 16-10 3.60 10/90 Wright 6-4 4.20 (some in relief) 3 by Johnson/Velazquez (1-2 5.00) Team: 101-61 (assuming no new injuries) Defense Ranking (out of 30): 6-9 Catcher: Assuming Swihart does not catch too often. 16-19 1B: Assuming HRam plays more than MiMo 14-17 2B: Assuming Nunez plays 2B 25-35% 23-26 SS: Assuming Bogey plays 155+ games here 26-29 3B: Assuming Devers plays 155+ games here 11-14 LF: Beni with JMart getting some time here 4-7 CF: JBJ 1-4 RF: Betts Your thoughts and ideas are welcome. LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

.680 would be "good" for Leon.

Top ST'ing OPS (27+ PAs) 1.219 Beni 1.061 Bogaerts 1.014 Devers .994 de Jesus .963 Travis .961 Vaz .930 Holt .926 Betts .863 Moreland .852 Leon .846 Swihart Nice to see all three catchers over .845. Swihart is now 3rd.

One of the few times we ever agreed, and now you go and switch.

Well said. I do think guys like Marrero are everywhere, mostly in the minors. One other reason I liked Marrero more than Holt beyond the $1.5M savings was that we need a late-inning defensive replacement for Devers and Nunez much more than we'll ever need Holt to PH or replace someone for his offense. It is what it is, and Holt looks to be back to form, so let's hope he can help is some way. He is an excellent base runner.

Is Lin the same caliber defensively?

I agree, and the $1.5M differential could come in handy this summer. I'm not sure we;ll see much of Holt this year, and we wouldn't have with Marrero either, unless there's a long term injury. When Pedey and Hernandez get back, I can't see Holt still being on the 25 man roster, so this choice was a short term one anyways.

Yes, I think you misunderstood what I meant. I meant 2 more years than we already had. The way I wrote it was not great and easy to misunderstand.

I had a feeling my misquote was not going to go unoticed.

I wanted Marrero over Holt, but the guy is like a .550 hitter. It's not like it's a big disparity.

Well, I've over-projected for 3-4 straight years, so...

Marrero's bat was just so damn anemic. I wish him the best, as well. As much as I have been down on Holt for a couple years, I'm glad he's back to form, and I'm fine with him on our 25 man roster.

This was the first of 3 arb years (2018-2020). Now, he siged through 2021 with an option for 2022.

MLBTR... Red Sox starter Chris Sale left today’s start after being struck by a comebacker off the bat of J.D. Davis. Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald was first to tweet that the club called it a hip contusion. Thankfully for fans in Boston, the X-rays on his hip came back negative ...

Depending on what we got for marrero, and I doubt it's much, I'd have prefered to put Holt at AAA for depth. Holt is not a good enough hitter to replace any starter as an upgrade, and his defense is much worse than Marrero's. He's not really th type you should ever use as a late inning defensive replacement either.

Cora and JD should make a significant difference. Full years from Devers, Nunez, Carson Smith and others should help as well. Of course, we'll likely have others out, and we're already starting the season with Pedey, ERod, Pom and Wright out, but I expected a better season, overall, from our returning players anyways. I wanted to vote for 96 wins, but I did not like the 96-101 bracket as much as 92-95, so I voted 92-95.

So, we have one or maybe 2 more years of Vaz under control. I've always been a big Vaz fan, so I really like this move by DD, It also keeps one of our core players from becoming a free agent at just about the same time.

MLBTR.... Red Sox Extend Christian Vasquez By Kyle Downing | March 24, 2018 at 9:27am CDT The Red Sox have signed catcher Christian Vazquez to a three-year contract extension that’ll run through the 2021 season, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe was first to tweet (Vazquez was already set to receive $1.425MM this season after his first trip through the arbitration process). According to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, he’s set to receive $2.85MM in 2019, $4.2MM in 2020, and $6.25MM in 2021. The club option is for $7MM, and can increase to $8MM if he manages to accrue at least 502 plate appearances in each of 2020 and 2021. The option comes with a $250K buyout. The extension also comes with a club option for 2022. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets that Vazquez has offered to make an annual donation to the Red Sox foundation as part of the agreement. He’s represented by MDR Sports Management. Over the course of his career, Vazquez hadn’t received much attention for anything other than his defensive prowess behind the plate. That changed a bit, however, when the now-27-year-old hit .290/.330/.404 across 345 plate appearances for the Red Sox in 2017. While a .348 BABIP suggests that those numbers could regress significantly, the combination of an offensive breakout and a stellar defensive reputation apparently convinced the team that he’s worth keeping in the fold through his age-30 season (and possibly his age-31 season as well). Vazquez will receive $13.55MM in new guarantees from the pact, including the buyout of his option. As for the Red Sox, they’ll receive cost certainty across the catcher’s final two arbitration seasons in addition to delaying his free agency by a year, and possibly two. The pact is somewhat similar to the extension given to Guardians catcher Roberto Perez just last season, who’s also a client of MDR Sports Management. While Vazquez spent last season in a nearly-equal time share with fellow backstop Sandy Leon, the terms of the option (and indeed the extension itself) seem to hint that they’d like to give the lion’s share of at-bats and defensive innings to the former. Considering he’s been worth 31 defensive runs saved in just 1,668 innings behind the dish over the course of his career, more playing time for Vazquez would likely end up paying dividends for Boston. A largely unheralded ninth-round pick by the Red Sox back in 2008, Vazquez has never known another major league organization. It took him six years to crack the MLB club, and even then he didn’t seem to be a core piece of the team right away. Vazquez owned a .309 career slugging percentage prior to last season, and missed all of 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. However, the Red Sox will hope that last year’s 1.6 fWAR showing is more indicative of his talent moving forward.

The Rangers have released Bartolo Colon from his minor-league contract.

The real "ace-in-the-hole" could be ERod. He's been nagged by this knee injury for years. Maybe the surgery will, once and for all, help him become the pitcher we all hoped he'd be.

He's hurt. He's old. We need starters now and probably not at the time Lackey could be ready by. Just say no to John.

So Velazquez can stay up? I thought you judged players by ST'ing numbers.

He's always had decent stuff. Now, let's see it BRIAN!