moonslav59

Nice3 feel good story. It would be great to fins HRam's replacement from within the system. We will need his contract money to pay arb raises and to try and keep or replace, in kind, Pom and or Kimbrel.

I know this thread is about 2018, but looking forward: maybe Poynder or Maddox can fill in as a top set-up man once we promote Smith or Thornburg to closer after Kimbrel's probable departure. Replacing Pom and Porcello with $28M between their contracts will not be easy. Can we still win without all 3? Of course we can, Is it probable we will be as good? I'd say, "no."

Their contract expirations are not going to be enough for arb raises and re-signings. For example, Pom is being paid $8.5M. To keep him in 2019 or replace him, in kind, through free agency will cost probably more than $15M a year... maybe $20M+. We may be able to stay highly competitive after losing Kimbrel in 2019 and Porcello in 2020, but we'll need prospects coming up to take Smith/Thornburg's slot, or we'll need Steven Wright or Brian Johnson to pitch like Pom.

Agrred, but we could have kept both by maximizing the value of Holt's option.

...and maybe we can extend him early and get a slight hometown discount by paying him a little more than he'd get in arb years early in the contract.

I'm sure it did, but starting him in AAA would have shown that value immediately. I think it was more about Marrero being able to be easily replaced, in kind, by any number of cheap available all- glove SSs.

Being "fine with him on the roster" is not the same as saying it's the choice I'd have made. If he can return to his .727 bat of his AS season, he'll be a decent utility guy with defensive downside, but in all likely hood, our greatest utility need, once Pedey returns, is 3B and 2B defense/coverage- not a .727 hitting IF'er.

I'd like to keep Betts, but your theory could work, if we trade the right guy, at the right time for the right players. It will probably take some out-of-the-box thinking to rebuild while staying highly competitive, since we will not likely have many top prospects to trade for high quality replacements for guys like Betts or Pom. Trading Betts would just create a new hole or seriously compromise our great OF defense by moving JD to LF at Fenway and maybe RF away. Like I said, it's not impossible, but I have a hard time putting faith in a new out-of-the-box philosophy or praying some miracles develop from a farm long away from top 7 picks and a system that allowed rich teams to raid hard to sign young players and international players.

That shouldn't happen this year. JMart will be getting time in the OF, especially at NL parks. Once Pedey returns, we will be scrambling to get Nunez playing time, and he's actually a better defender in LF than any IF position. IF HRam is raking, we may even want to use Moreland or Swihart in LF over Holt.

...and Nunez, once Pedey returns. The thing about keeping Holt on the back of the bench, is that allows for coverage, in case of a late inning injury, or a PH by Nunez, Moreland or Swihart that might allow Holt to go in on defense at 8 positions. He's also a very good heads-up base runner. To me, that's the main value Holt brings to the team- not his offense and not his defense.

Who? Holt? He should never play. If someone gets hurt, someone else will be the better choice to play most of the time. He's not a late inning defensive replacement, perhaps the only thing we might need from our utiltiy infielder, and he's not a better hitter than anyone but Leon, but since Holt can't catch, he won't be playing there. I'd rather have Marrero and have Holt's $2.2M put in the summer spending kitty.

Now, I'm confused. I thought you wanted us to stay near or over by $40M plus, when you said, "Starters will require real money but it's doable." If we want to keep the window open, we will become the Yankees we hated for decades. If we don't keep spending $4)M or more over the limit beyond 2019, we will see a steep decline in competitiveness, IMO. I'd love to see us stay competitive forever, and that's why I prefer a more balanced approach, but we're at where we are now, and our options are limited. I don't think Henry will be the biggest spender for more than 3 years. That's why I'm a "cliff dweller". I wouldn't mind seeing him spend and spend, but I'd feel like a hypocrite, if I didn't point out the paradox us Sox fans might face.

Nobody is giving anything very useful for Leon. His value with Sale is specific to this team. Trading Leon means we think Holt is more important than Leon or Swihart, even with Nunez being a Holt plus. It has to be Holt to AAA, and a waste of $2.2M, or it will probably be a bad choice.

$2.2M for Holt. It makes no sense. The love affair should have ended before the contract was signed. Will the love fest force a trade of Leon or Swihart?

1) You make some good points. 2) Your spell check is a mess- turn it off. 3) We have $3-4M to spend this summer on whatever we need. 4) One could view Smith and Thornburg as 2018 additions to the staff.

Right now, we can keep both on the 25. When Pedey comes back, I'd send Holt to AAA and keep everyone.

Barring other injuries, it has to be Holt or Swihart with Leon as an outside possibility. I'd send Holt down as Nunez becomes the Jack of all trades,

Do we really want to be the biggest spenders in MLB for 3-4 years in a row, some by a wide margin? I remember hating the Yanks for "buying championships."

By 2020, we'll be a long way away from our last high draft pick. Yes, dropping 10 picks from 27 to 37 is not a big deal, but how long will Henry keep paying high luxury tax costs, including penatly taxes for going over level 1 and maybe 2? The year 3 tax is 40% (not 17.5% like year one. Then there's a $12% surtax on money spent between $20-40M and 45% for money spent over 40M (year 2 or more). That's a huge amount in tax costs. I'm not so sure Henry wants to be viewed as the next King George.

We can probably get by without replacing Kelly. Maybe Smith or Thornburg can be our closer next year without a huge drop-off, but then who takes their role as a set-up guy? I doubt we fix all our pen holes within system, but I guess it's possible. If we only have to sign Pom or repalce him, we can do it. The "cliff" or drop off does not arrive next year, but we'll be at year 2 tax rates and pushing the max tax line. 2020 will be year 3 tax rate, and Pablo's contract will not pay for all the arb raises. I'm thinking we might squeeze another top competitive year into "the window", but a lot has to go right. Free agents needing to be re-signed or replaced (in kind or better): Sale Bogey Porcello Thornburg (important assuming we have no Kimbrel) Moreland

IMO, he's a defensive liability at every position he plays. Some UZR/150 numbers are small sample size that shows he's decent here and there, but I don't feel confidence in his defense anywhere he plays. He may bat better than mosy utility IF'ers, but unless someone gets hurt long term, we won't be needing Holt's bat, since he's not an upgrade, offensively, at any position he playes, even if he hits .750. (Note: he hit .727 his AS season.)

If Leon gets Sale to be a top 3 Cy Young vote getter, he's done his job, even at .580.

We're currently about $3M from the maximu penalty tax limit. Next year, we'll see some signifcant arb raises. To keep Kimbrel and Pom, we'll pretty much have to go more than $40M over the limit or trade a higher priced player- this even with HRam's option not vesting. If it vests, we'll likely see loss of talent or luxury tax penatlies increased starting next season. The following season, we lose Pablo (and maybe HRam, if he vests), but we'll have majore players to re-sign or replace in kind. It's not impossible, but it is going to be very difficult to keep the full core of talent together or to replace in kind through free agency or trades. Here are the numbers... We're $3-4M under the $40M penalty line. I believe the luxry tax goes up $9M, so that leaves us with about $12M going into next year, assuming we don't sign someone this summer that is signed into next year. ($1M more for Sale's option year and assuming we lose Holt $2.2M and Leon $2.0M, we're now at about $15M under the max tax limit.) Arb raises: Betts 2 of 3 ($10.5M > ?) Bogey 3 of 3 ($7.1M >?) JBJ 3 of 4 ($6.1M>?) ERod 2 of 4 ($2.8M) Thornburg 3 of 3 ($2.1M>?) Wright 2 of 3 ($1.1M>?) Smith 2 of 3 ($850K>?) Workman 2 of 3 ($835K>?) 1st arbs: Barnes, Swihart, Hembree & Elieas. These arb raises will certainly eat up that $15M and then some. We lose: (luxury tax dollars) $13M Kimbrel $8.5M Pom $3.8M Kelly Total: $25.3M Maybe we'll have $10-15M to repalce these guys or be stuck replacing him with players already in the system (or a little of both). HRam's $22M would help a lot, and if we add $22M to $13M, we're at $35M to spend on Kimbrel, Pom & Kelly. It might be close to enough. A vesting HRam contracts almost certainly means we lose Kimbrel and/or Pom or go way over the maz penalty (2nd year rates) and watch our draft pick move down 10 picks.

I was about to go back and check around this time in Sox history. 2010 had Lester, Lackey, Buch, Dice-K, Wake and Doubront 2008 had Lester, Beckett, Buch, Dice-K, Wake, Masterson & Colon 2007 didn't need depth, but Tavarez gave us 23 decent starts, and Gabbard gave us 7. Buch was our 8th starter.

Here's how I see our roster and depth chart: C: Vaz will probably start 4 out of 5 starts with Leon being Sale's personal caddie. It remains to be seen if Swihart can muscle his way into more catching time beyond late inning PH'er-type role. Butler provides pretty good ML ready depth in AAA. 1B: Although this could be one of this season's weakest comparative position by WAR or OPS, we have decent depth. HRam will likely start vs all LH'd SP'ers as MiMo hits lefties very poorly. HRam and MiMo might split time vs RH'd starters. Swihart may muscle his way to some playing time here. HRam's vesting option at 497 PAs will likely be hotly debated all season long. Sam Travis has had a very nice Spring and now looks to be a more-than-capable back-up stashed in AAA, With 4 1Bmen to choose from, maybe we'll get a surprise from one or two of them. 2B: Pedey is the man, but Nunez will start the season at 2nd and might see significant time there, even after Pedey returns. Marco Hernandez (DL), Holt, Lin and Quiroz offer decent depth. 3B: Devers looks like he will get over 600 PAs this year. Nunez might play some, perhaps while Devers "rests" as our DH. Holt, Lin and maybe even Swihart could fill in, if we need them here. SS: Bogaerts should play every game, except when resting. My guess is, we'll use the poor-fielding SS, Nunez, as our first choice at SS, but Holt and Lin can fill in pretty well. LF: Beni should get all of the starts, except when JD plays LF in Fenway. Beni may play RF or CF, when other OF'ers are rested or given the day off. Nunez, Holt, Swihart and even Moreland can play LF, when needed. CF: JBJ should play FT CF, except when JD plays the OF. Beni or Betts are the depth here. RF: Betts should get over 700 PAs, especially if he hits 1st or 2nd everyday. JD may play some RF at NL parks and maybe a few AL parks as well, butBetts will move to CF at JBJ's expense. DH: JD Martinez should play here as much as possible, so we can maximize his PAs and minimize a chance for injury. HRam, Nunez/Pedey, Swihart/Travis or Devers could see time at DH this year. SP1: Sale SP2: Price SP3: Pomeranz (DL) SP4: ERod (when off the DL) SP5: Porcello SP6: Wright (suspended) SP7: Johnson SP8: Velazquez SP9: Elias/Beeks/Haley Closer: Kimbrel (back-up: Smith/Thornburg) RP2: Smith RP3: Thornburg (DL) RP4: Kelly RP5: Barnes RP6: Hembree (no options) RP7: Workman RP8: Poyner RP9: Maddox RP10: Scott RP11: Wright/Johnson/Elias/Velazquez/Buttrey/Martin/Layne/Jerez... All-in-all, I like our depth just about everywhere.