moonslav59

If he hits .700 from now to the end of the year, he's a sure plus going forward- a sure starter somewhere next year. That's not changing anything. I do agree, he'd probably greatly benefit by changing his approach, but we don't know this. It could mess him up totally by trying.

The thing about the playoffs, you only need 3-4 really good starters and your pen is usually more rested with the days off being more often. If our big three are healthy and rested, Sale, Price & Porcello, I'm okay with throwing ERod out there in a game 4 up 2 to 1. If we're down 2 to 1, we'd probably go with our game 1 starter again. I doubt we'll need Wright, but he could be a nice option by October. He'll be rested, it will be cooler, and he could also be used from the pen, if needed. Our pen has looked shaky at times, but this is the second year in a row, they've done very well. Maybe they are not over performing. Maybe they are just better than we think. Workman has really stepped it up and could give us what we hoped Smith or Thornburg were going to give us. Yes, I'm concerned about a few things, but so are the Yanks and 'stros. That's why they're looking at making trades.

Well said, but I'm not really sure what "better options" were out there than Price. We needed an ace. Remember, this was pre-Sale era. I doubt many posters would have been happy had we spent Price's money on 5 Moreland types, including a couple SP'ers at $6M a pop. How often do you strike gold on those type of signings, and we needed GOLD at the top of the rotation not bronze or even silver.

As long as our major pieces are healthy and not worn out by October, this team can compete with anyone else. I agree. We added Pearce and probably will add a pen arm like Reed from last year. With Phillips on the farm, I think we're looking good.

No value at all? Come on!

If it's $1.5 by Toronto and $1.5M for us, I have us at close to zero to spend and stay under the max line. We can still make trades, if this happens: 1) We decide to go over the max and pay the penalties. 2) Get the team we trade with to pay enough cash to even out the swap budget cost by giving more than what normally might be needed. 3) Dump some salary of our own to create budget space for an addition or two. Pro-rated dollars at the deadline (basically, 1/3 of 2018 salary): $2.8M Pom $1.4M Nunez $1.3M Kelly $800K Holt $700K Thornburg $600K Leon Remember, when we trade for a player, we will only be on the hook for 1/3 of their 2018 salary, so that is all that will count against our budget (minus what the other team might pay). It looked like Toronto wasn't looking to save money as much as they were looking to get a better prospect for Pearce. Maybe similar deals are out there that might add nothing to our budget.

So, because Wright's last game was horrible, it should hold more weight? Yes, he's on the DL, but his replacements did even better, so the whole "not so fast" argument based on one game sample sizes should actually make us look better- not worse (except for ERod after last night's game).

he only had 2 good games out of his last 10. 9 IP 0 ER @ LAD (low humidity?) 8 IP 1 ER vs MN (7/21/16)- It got up to 90 that day with a dew point between 49 and 64.

We got it all out of our system in one game. Time to win the next two.

I said that same word myself, "potential."

Toronto is paying part of Pearce's deal. We may be able to get another team to do something similar, or we could dump a salary ourselves (like Pom, if he regains health).

Summer 7-9 Slot Update: Oh for 9 tonight with a HBP. Sox 0-9 (6/29) 4-9 (6/28) 6-12 (6/27) 5-12 (6/26) 4-8 (6/24) 1-10 (6/23) 6-15 (6/22) 5-13 (6/21) 31-88 (.352) Yanks 3-11 (6/29) 0-8 (6/27 includes pitcher slot) 1-12 (6/26) 1-12 (6/25) 2-15 (6/24) 1-9 (6/23) 1-9 (6/22) 0-10 (6/21) 9-86 (.105)

Are you talking the disposable kind?

I wonder if he ever realizes he's done, he'll retire like Dempster did and forgo the rest of his contract, thereby freeing up some budget space.

The other thing to notice from this data is this: Months that JBJ's monthly OPS since Aug 2015 was... 3- 1.000+ 0- .840 to .999 5- .770 to .839 3- .677 to .736 5- .596 to .651 1-- at .517 8 months over .770 3 months .675 to .770 6 below .651 11 out of 17 months, he's been over .677. It seems like he's had more bad months than this.

Wow, that was a bit of shocker, but against the lefty, it looks good to me. Nice to have Moreland for PH duty.

Good analogy, and I've often wondered why he doesn't have more career HRs with that hard hit%. Mike always had his share.

Our pitching has done pretty well as well.... Last 28 days Starter ERA 1.29 Sale 2.99 Price 3.48 Porcello 3.80 ERod 4.13 Wright 0.00 Haley 2.19 Johnson 3.00 Velazquez 0.90 Workman 0.93 Hembree 2.16 Kimbrel 3.38 Barnes 5.40 Kelly

Yes, the higher K rate accounts for much of his poor results, but he's not that far from others who seem to have better luck: 25% Devers 24% T Shaw 24% Leon 23% JBJ 21% Moreland 21% Young 19% HRam 19% Holt 18% Vaz 17% Bogey 17% Beni 12% Betts 11% Pedey (2015-2018)

Those stats are select. If you break them down by the month, he is consistently bad for most months, BUT always seems to have 1 good, and 1 great month. Okay, let's take a closer look at JBJ since AUG of 2015. Red: Hard Hit% under 30%/ OPS around .650 or below Blue: hard hit % above 33%/ OPS above .730 JBJ Month:Hard Hit% / OPS 8/15 39%/ 1.163 9/15 31%/ .736 4/16 38%/ .807 5/16 39%/ 1.175 6/16 39%/ .805 7/16 35%/ .839 8/16 31%/ .651 9/16 34%/ .731 4/17 44%/ .596 5/17 30%/ .808 6/17 41%/ 1.009 7/17 36%/ .596 8/17 28%/ .770 9/17 23%/ .517 4/18 33%/ .600 5/18 32%/ .599 6/18 44%/ .677 Let's use Bogey as a comp 8/15 26%/ .761 9/15 37%/ .876 4/16 30%/ .785 5/16 35%/ 1.017 6/16 29%/ .815 7/16 29%/ .830 8/16 28%/ .599 9/16 33%/ .750 4/17 22%/ .731 5/17 34%/ .949 6/17 39%/ .763 7/17 25%/ .452 8/17 24%/ .683 9/17 38%/ .803 4/18 28%/ 1.171 5/18 42%/ .705 6/18 39%/ .855 Here's what I find interesting and perhaps unexplained: Both had 7 months where their hard hit% was good (blue) and their OPS was good (blue), but then it gets wacky. Bogey has 4 months where he did not hit the ball hard (red) but had a good OPS (blue)- JBJ just 1. Bogey had zero months where he hit the ball hard (blue) or so-so (black) and had a bad OPS (red), yet JBJ had 5! This is amazingly bad luck or something I am missing

I have not denied that his stats are mostly fueled by 1 streak or two each season, in fact, I mentioned it. Yes, I'd prefer a more consistent hitter. Yes, I'd prefer he not swing for the fences every PA. He is what he is, and I don't understand a lot of his thinking and approach, but the fact is, he ends up around .730-.830 jest about every year since his horrendous start in the bigs. Streaky hitters still contribute. It's just all bunched up in short time frames. I wish he was more consistent, and maybe someday he'll figure out what he's doing wrong during his cold stretches and adjust more quickly. The fact that, overall, he's hit the ball as hard as Betts since 2015 kind of surprised me. That can't all come from 2 months each season, can it? Maybe I'm wrong, but I do feel like he's had some bad luck during some of his cold streaks. His BAbip since from 2015-2016 was .312. From 2017 to 2018 it has been .282. it's .255 this year, despite the high hard hit ball % that has remained pretty consistently around 36% every year. I know his plate discipline and lack of adjustments is a big part of his problems, but it doesn't negate the fact that he hits the ball hard and often gets nothing to show for it. The shift has a lot to do with that, and if he learned how to bunt or go the other way, those numbers would probably change to the good.

I doubt it could be viewed as before Betts. It would likely be instead of Betts. I doubt we can pay 3 guys over $30M for even 1 year, let alone 3-4 years in a row. Don't get me wrong. I'd love to keep Sale and Betts, but if I had to choose-- close call-- I'd take Betts. Now, Sale for 5 vs Betts for 10 changes the debate and risk factors, but I doubt sale settles for just 5 years.

Most lines are far from -110, and we will likely have home field for a wild card game. My point was that being a favorite usually means you win. I'd hate for us to have to win a play-in to advance, for sure, but I value having a rested Sale as more valuable. It's a close call. having to win a play in or a tired Sale both would suck.

Well a win vs NYY insured one more loss for them, while a win vs LAA does not. Beating LAA is +.05 games. Beating NYY is +1.0 games, but more importnatly, it's a 2.0 game swing with a win vs a loss, where as a win vs a loss vs LAA is just a 1 game swing in the standings.

If managers lost confidence in a RP'er based on just his last 2 appearances, there's be nobody left to have any confidence in. Maybe we have diffeent views on what inconsistent means, but I'm not sure how Kelly fits that bill. Hembree: yes. Barnes: probably. Kelly Game 1: horrible 14 straight with no runs allowed and no inherited runs allowed 3 games in a row where inherited runs scored + 1 of his own 8 games in a row with no runs or IRs scored. From May 29th to June 28, he's been a mess. 8 of his 12 games, he's let up an ER or IRS. I guess one could view this as highly inconsistent, but my guess is most RP'ers have stretches quite like this. Barnes has allowed 11 IRS and 10 of his own over 34 appearances. They've been pretty well spread out, except for one bad 3 game stretch at the end of April.