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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I mentioned him in an earlier post. He looks great this year, but this worries me: WHIP 1.233 2015 1.225 2016 1.379 2017 0.743 2018 Outlier? Fluke? Real deal? Are we just guessing? What's equally weird is that his K/9 was always over 10.4, and now, during his best season, it's down to 9.7. I'm not sure we can afford to trade for an established & consistent RP'ers, so someone like Kyle B might be all we can get. We just will have to hope he stays good all year and doesn't revert to 2017 or earlier numbers.
  2. moonslav59
    SOX OPS on the Farm (listed in order of most ABs) .753 Castillo AAA .609 Rivera AA .736 Netzer A+ .784 Sturgeon AA/AAA .679 Matheny AA .666 de la Guerra AA/AAA .840 Espinal A+ (Traded for Pearce) .673 Downs A+ .830 Dalbec A+ HR Leaders 15 Dalbec 13 Campana 11 Ockimey 10 Ohlman 10 Olt 9 de la Guerra 8 Sturgeon, Witte, Tendler Pitching (OPS against) Selected pitchers with 50+ IP .560 Reyes A .604 Crawford A .629 Josh Smith AA/AAA .630 Beeks AAA .642 Mata A+ .647 Shawaryn AA .692 Cuevas AAA .693 D Hernandez A+ .695 Kent AA .702 J Diaz A/A+ .706 Raudes A+ .707 Shepherd AAA .711 Haley AAA .719 Hart AA .770 Thompson A+ .802 Houck A+ .894 Stanki AA/AAA
  3. moonslav59
    I'm not sure you be so kind with your wording, if German was a Sox pitcher. He had a pretty strong first 6 appearances, including his first GS, and he did okay his last outing, but his middle 8 appearances have been worse than a disaster. 43 IP 31 ER (6.49 ERA) 34 H 12 BB (1.48 WHIP) 4 HBP (1.61 WHHBPIP)
  4. moonslav59
    Warning: tiny sample sizes: 2018 as starter 2.53 ERA/1.219 WHIP (.748 OPS against) as reliever 2.73 ERA/1.515 WHIP (.775 OPS against) One could argue his niche was as a starter, and they messed him up by making him a RP'er. Contrary numbers: Career as starter: 3.96/1.360 (.847) as releiver: 2.08/1.315 (.689)
  5. moonslav59
    Here's our lefty-righty splits as we advance through the second half of the season. vs RHPs 1.070 JDM 1.065 Betts .920 Beni .912 Moreland .856 Bogey .777 Devers .734 Leon .728 Holt .681 Nunez .662 JBJ .528 Vaz .388 Swihart vs LHPs 1.211 Betts 1.044 Holt .881 JDM .825 Moreland .746 Bogey .717 Beni .703 Leon .662 Vaz .617 Devers .526 Nunez .476 JBJ .472 Swihart
  6. moonslav59
    Yes, it just happens that many of our starters got shelled in their very last start but were doing pretty sell beforehand. Include the injured Wright on that list. I guess I just never can understand why so many people subscribe the philosophy that a pitcher is only as valuable as his last start.
  7. moonslav59
    Last 30 day SP'er ERA- (10+ IP/ red under 24 IP) 24 Sale 32 Severino 46 Sabathia 46 Loaisiga 81 Porcello 96 Wright 104 Tanaka 107 ERod 110 Price 128 Gray
  8. moonslav59
    I have to side with Jacko on this one. The Yanks farm system is far from "thin". Not only do they have top national prospects, they have a deep system, especially with pitching. I'd swap our system for theirs in a heartbeat.
  9. moonslav59
    Sorry, I don't fall for the line that once someone did something badly in tiny samples sizes spread out over several seasons, he is doomed to repeat his past forever and ever. There are countless examples of players who started out poorly in their first few playoff games but then went on to do very well, and vice versa. If we don't rest Sale the rest of the way, I have pretty close to the same confidence in him as I do in Price. Sale's second half woes are a much larger sample size that Prices scattered nightmares.
  10. moonslav59
    These are adults, not second graders. ...or politicians.
  11. moonslav59
    Shhhhhhhhhhhhh..... We want other GMs to fall in love with Groome, so we can trade him (with others) for the next Sale.
  12. moonslav59
    It might come down to the final day of the season on who wins the division, and who goes to the WC game. If this is the case, both the Yanks and Red Sox might burn their best starter in game 162.
  13. moonslav59
    Good point.
  14. moonslav59
    Last 1.5 seasons (817 PAs): .229 23 86 .312/.377/.689
  15. moonslav59
    That's almost as bad as his first 530 PAs in MLB 92013-2014) .196 (.268/.280/.548) 4 HRs 40 RBI
  16. moonslav59
    Plus, if they ever traded him, it would not be for a big contract exchange. It would be for top prospects, for which we have none.
  17. moonslav59
    A question about the playoffs. If the Red Sox win the wild card and win the wild card game, do they go on to play the team with the best record in the next round? Or, does the best record play the worst record in the first round regardless of whether the worst team is the wild card winner or division winner? Sadly, the WC play-in winner faces the team with the best record no matter what division they are in. This does not seem fair to the top division winner, if they have to face the second best team in the divisional playoff round.
  18. moonslav59
    There's also a chance Pom regains his form and wins the 4 slot. Really though, how many teams have 3 guys like Price, Wright and Pom, to fight it out for the 4 slot. This is not a weak spot. yes, the Astros have a better #4. yes, the Yankees will likely trade for a decent #3, but they still lack a good #4 right now. Severino (#1 in ERA- at 47) Sabathia (#19 in ERA- at 72) S Gray (#84 in ERA- at 130!) Let's look at just the AL and widen the sample to size to 73 SP'ers with 40+ IP, so far this season: ERA- 1. Severino 47 2. Verlander 53 4. Sale 56 7. Cole 62 8. Morton 64 11. Sabathia 72 18. Porcello 84 23. McCullers 89 31. ERod 96 39. Price 100 46. Keuchel 105 52. Tanaka 110 63. Gray130 66. German 141 If any of the top 3 teams have an issue with starter depth, it's the Yanks- not us.
  19. moonslav59
    While every player has "bad luck" stretches, you are right, it is not an excuse. The fact that JBJ's bad luck stretch fell during a stretch of severe struggles at the plate just made it worse. Even, if he had some better luck, he'd still be at about .220/.650. Who knows why this pattern seems to repeat itself every year. If it was easy to answer, maybe it could be solved. I also feel like his hot and cold streak have been somewhat exaggerated. Iknow some of his hot streaks were straddling 2 months, making both months look normal, but these numbers do not lie: Months that JBJ's monthly OPS since Aug 2015 was... 3- 1.000+ 0- .840 to .999 5- .770 to .839 3- .677 to .736 5- .596 to .651 1-- at .517 8 months over .770 3 months .675 to .770 6 below .651 11 out of 17 months, he's been over .677. It seems like he's had more bad months than this. He actually has had more decent, good and great months than bad ones at almost a 2 to 1 ratio. I believe, this year has seen his longest bad streak since pre-2015.
  20. moonslav59
    Our 6-9 starters will not be starting in the playoffs, and assuming Pom never becomes available, we'll choose 3 or 4 from this group: Sale (8th in ERA- at 56) Porcello (26th in ERA- at 84) ERod (40th in ERA- at 96) Price (46th in ERA- at 100) Too many people are writing off our starters based on 2018, yet we have 4 starters in the top 46. okay, the Astros have 4 in the top 30, but the Yanks have only 2 in the top 83! Even if they trade for a top pitcher, we'll still have more in the top 50.
  21. moonslav59
    I hope to hell no Red Sox management person makes any decision based on one start. There is absolutely no way Price does NOT start a playoff games, unless he's hurt.
  22. moonslav59
    I've been one of JBJ's biggest supporters, and of course, hitting just .200 matters. It matters a lot. Hitting is a big part of a player's value, but it is not everything. Defense and base running add or subtract value. I guess the debate is how much and is it enough to keep JBJ as an overall plus or not. My position on JBJ has been that I think he's still a plus at .200 (.600+ OPS), but he will likely not end up at .200/.600, if past history has anything to do with future outcomes. If he ends up at .200/.600 by season's end, I would not be upset, if we traded him and found a less expensive great defensive CF'er with more offensive upside.
  23. moonslav59
    Chris Davis qualifies and is hitting .155. 7 players have a worse BA than JBJ, plus we all know OBP is more important than BA. JBJ ranks 144th at .290 and has 19 players below him, including Nunez, Longoria, Seager, Pujols, Moncada & Pillar. JBJ's OPS ranks 155 out of 163 at .616.
  24. moonslav59
    I know he's not going anywhere. Maybe the best we can hope for is that he has the surgery and gives us a couple good years after the recovery.
  25. moonslav59
    In the past, I'd agree, but apparently the 3 slot is not for your best hitter. Then again, they say the 2 slot is and neither Betts or JD bat there. If we move JD to 3, we lose the "protection" he gives the 3 slot hitter. I still like Bogey 2nd. I might prefer.... 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) JD 5) Moreland/Pearce 6) Devers 7) Nunez/Holt 8) Vaz/Leon 9) JBJ
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