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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    10 days doesn't sound like a lot for a cracked bone. I hope it heals quickly. He was one of our hottest players.
  2. moonslav59
    I'm not sure if all 13 are GG worthy. I don't watch all of them play nearly every game. I do watch JBJ every game, and he's the best Sox defensive CF'er I've ever seen. (That does not make him an automatic GG winner or top contender, but I do think he is very close to GG caliber from what little I've seen of other current great fielding CF'ers. If I try to be totally objective, I'd say JBJ has never deserved a GG. Others have likely been better and more deserving. My point is, you don't have to be the best or even top 5 to be a huge plus to your team on defense. He's not a plus on defense when we play teams with equal or better defensive CF'ers. I know this: JBJ is better than anyone else on our team in CF by a long shot. Beni is way better than JMart in LF. Our OF is way better with JBJ in CF and Beni in RF. We don't gain enough playing Moreland in the line-up instead of JBJ.
  3. moonslav59
    He's not, but it doesn't take much to be better than Devers defensively and Moreland offensively.
  4. moonslav59
    What a relief!
  5. moonslav59
    So, are there no tremendous defensive CF'er in minor league ball that can hit .101 at minimum wage?
  6. moonslav59
    My point was, you can still be a great fielder and only rank 10-13th. QA kid who scores 99 for a semester but is ranked 3rd out 5 is not mediocre. I agree that JBJ can eventually be replaced and maybe should be, if he can't hit over somewhere around .600 to .650. Once he gets to the .650-.700 range, it's more debatable. If he's over .700, IMO, he's a clear plus that can still be improved upon, but show me who and how before I say yes. Clearly, if he hits .500 this year, we can find a great glove CF'er for cheaper than JBJ's arb (even though that might not be that much after a .500 season).
  7. moonslav59
    I defend defensive metrics over observations a lot, but I have never said they are perfect or the be-all-end-all decider of value. I think the fact that JBJ makes some plays look easy, the metrics might be discounting the value of those plays by labelling them as a normalk or slightly difficult play, instead of a very difficult one. I could be wrong, but I think that may be why JBJ's UZR/150 numbers are not as high as I expect. He's not all that fats, either, so I can see how a faster CF'er with equal instincts, quick starts and best routes taken can be better than JBJ. I don't need to think JBJ is the best or even top 5 to know he's an easy big plus in CF on defense.
  8. moonslav59
    Context may be needed. Maybe there are 13 super great defensive CF'ers in MLB right now, so saying JBJ is #13 does not mean he's not great. Besides, he's 4th best in DRS. To me, JBJ owns Fenway's CF and is damn good away. The numbers show he's a solid plus in UZR/150 and top 5 in DRS. I know there are some great defenders out there, and I'm okay with anyone saying they are better than JBJ, but that doesn't make JBJ bad or even mediocre. One has to choose to say that if you are ranked 13th, you have to be mediocre. If you have 5 studnets take a test and these are the scores: 100 100 99 60 40 Is the guy who got a 99 really "mediocre?"
  9. moonslav59
    The Astros had two "clear FT OF'ers" and both were hurt for a while.
  10. moonslav59
    Nobody was talking to Moose all winter. We made a mistake and not just with Moose. There were other choices and no hurry to lock Moreland up.
  11. moonslav59
    Okay. We put Jmart in the OF and what? We get Moreland's bat in the line-up over JBJ? Swihart? Holt? If we do get an offensive gain from one of those guys over JBJ, the defensive loss negates the gain and then some. BTW, small sample sizes for all, but... 2018 OPS .533 Swihart .399 JBJ .300 Holt .297 Moreland
  12. moonslav59
    Last year was a case in point. Our offense struggle a lot. JBJ's .726 OPS was the 9th worst out of our top 9 PA players. You speak of context, but seem to think, if our offense is struggling, that would become the top priority, when the full context involves looking at defense and base running as well. The other aspect is who are we replacing JBj with and how much offensive improvement can we expect? Right now, if we bench JBJ, we'd play Moreland, Swihart or Holt more often. "Context" shows each would be a net loss by playing them instead of JBJ. When Pedey returns and Nunez enters the picture, the context changes and maybe a change might be called for.
  13. moonslav59
    No, last year's numbers did not show him being all that great, defensively. A longer sample size shows he's better but still not top 5 or 6. JBJ did place 7th in DRS last year at +10, so if that number is correct, he's not as mediocre as the other metrics indicate. He's 11th out of 30 CF'er with 1500+ innings since 2015 in UZR/150 at +5.9. I think he's better than that, but I haven't seen the 10 guys ahead of him everyday.
  14. moonslav59
    I'm on life support as we speak!
  15. moonslav59
    They had a tremendous bench, including 2 OF'er with much better defensive skills than JMart, Nunez, Swihart or Holt. Plus they hit better than our OF: Marwin Gonzalez .907 Jake Marisnick .815 Plus, they didn't have a clear best 3 OF'ers, and Reddick got hurt/ Beltran became 'washed up".
  16. moonslav59
    If our team is not hitting, why does that mean we have to look at only the OF and who is worst there? 1B and catching might be worst and LF hasn't been all that great for 2017-2018.
  17. moonslav59
    It's not that I'm not worried about JBJ's offense. I am. My position is that he has a long history of having prolonged slumps but has ended up between .725-.855 for 3 straight seasons. Unless, it looks like he's set to do worse than that, I'm not going to suggest he be replaced for at least a couple more months of a sample size to analyze. Plus, it's not just as simple as looking at OPS, although I have used OPS as a measuring stick far too often. How hard is JBJ hitting the ball? What about his BAbip? Is he the worst offensive player on the team (in 2 months)? We had a pretty crappy offense last year and JBJ was our 3rd highest WAR everyday player. He wasn't even close to our weakest link. That might change this year, but it's too early to know that.
  18. moonslav59
    If we are last in the league in hitting, JBJ's .726 will not be our worst hitter.
  19. moonslav59
    I'm of the mind that our young OF'ers only really need, at most, 5-7 days off. We play at NL parks at these times: May 31-June 3 (4 games at HOU) July 2-4 (3 games at WSH) Aug 14-15 (2 games at PHI) Sep 3-5 (3 games at ATL) That's almost perfectly spaced to give each OF'er 4 days off. That allows JMart or Nunez to play the OF in NL parks 12 out of the 12 games, if we want. Maybe an OF'er might need a rest before or in between some of these dats, then fine, give JMart or Nunez a game here or there, at those times. I'm okay with resting JBJ a little more than he "needs" to get more offense and allow Nunez more PAs, but no more than 12-14 games total- no injury-related. (This assumes he's hitting above .580 or so.)
  20. moonslav59
    I'm very happy we replaced JF with Cora. I may disagree with some of his "experimenting", and I hope it was just that, or I might change my mind, but I'm not even close to being for Cora packing his bags. (My guess is that all the "analytics" will show JMart should not play the OF more than our eyes told us.)
  21. moonslav59
    .726 os more than enough from JBJ no matter how well or bad the team is hitting. A .726 JBJ is a big net plus and would make CF one of our biggest overall strengths.
  22. moonslav59
    2017 Late and close: RBIs per AB 19/99 Betts 15/104 Moreland 14/110 Beni 13/82 Pedey 11/59 Leon 11/105 Bogey 9/87 HRam\ 8 103 JBJ 7/60 Vaz. It looks to me like JBj was "short" about 3-6 RBIs whn "it counts" last year. He more than makes up 6 runs with his defense and base-running, IMO. RISP opportunities and RBIs RBI/AB 74/138 Betts 70/134 Beni 54/160 Moreland 53/76 Pedey 47/131 Bogey 42/128 JBJ 36/139 HRam 35/66 Leon 23/54 Devers 22/77 Vaz How many is he "short" here? 10-12 RBIs? Does he save or add runs by more than that with his D and running? I'd say, "YES and then some."
  23. moonslav59
    It's how many runners he leaves on base as compared to the average CF'er. Then that number can be compared to how many runs he saves with his defense. (BTW, JBJ is also a plus base-runner, so he gains a few runs that way.)
  24. moonslav59
    You think he'll end up at .399? I agree, here is a floor. Defense does matter, and as far as "subjective defensive metrics" go, I think JBJ is even better than they indicate, so maybe he was a 2.3 or 2.4 WAR OF'er last year.
  25. moonslav59
    So, we waitr until it costs us a game(s) and then react? I hope we "learned" what should have already been known: JMart sucks in the OF. JBJ is much better than Beni in CF defense (and so far, not much worse on offense than Beni) It's not rocket science.
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