moonslav59

Which is still a 93 win team.

...and 27+ starts every season since he came up at age 20.

I think he rates to be a pretty decent 3rd starter. We just need Sale and Price to pitch like aces in October. ERod could step it up, if one of the big three struggle. Wright should be in the pen for the playoffs, unless someone is hurt.

So much for the bottom of the order winning this one for us. Wrong again!

I hate when people go off on someone based on one AB, 1 game, 1 week or even one month or two, but as Natick would say, I'M DONE WITH SWIHART!

Yes, assuming they pinch hit for Swihart in the 8th or 9th.

Prediction: the bottom of the order will win this game for us.

There is no guarantee your guys rebound. We shall see over the next 6 weeks if they do. You sound like you are guaranteeing none will rebound. How about the last 6 weeks? Leon's OPS was .214 on 4/24. Now it's at .641. Vaz's OPS was at .476 in late April. Now it's at .538, including 2 HRs in his last 5 games. JBJ was at .510 on May 12th. He's over .600 now. Why is the next 6 weeks more important than the last 6 weeks? we only need 1 or 2 of these guys (including the slumping Devers, Nunez, Swihart and the injured Pedey) to continue staying hot to bring 4 black holes to 2.

1) JBJ showed no evidence of snapping out of it in every season, then he did. Besides, how is an .831 OPS over the last 28 days "no evidence?" That's not "rosy glasses:" that's facts. 2) Devers may very well take more than a year to "adjust," but the kid is a natural hitter going through an expected rough patch. 3) Nunez has career numbers that do not look great, but he's been pretty good over the last 2-3 years. He does not project to be a black hole. Why would you think he does based on just 2 months? (Yes, Pedey might not ever come back.) 4) Vaz and Leon could very well go under .700 from now to October, but they should not be at .450, like they were over the first 6-7 weeks. They've both shown signs of improving their offense recently. Maybe one-by-one, none of the 4 slots look to hit .800 going forward, but to assume all 4 will hit below .710 or so for the remainder of the season is not probable at all. All we need is two of these guys to hit near their career norm, their 203 year norm or 2017 in Vaz's case: JBJ Pedey/Nunez/Holt Vaz/Leon/Swihart All 7 guys have hope, even if some are long shots. The chances that 5 or 6 out of 7 all continue to stink at the plate is just not supported by any data, except whaat they've done over just their recent one-third season. Id this really how you judge all players? Is Stanton destined to end up at .823 this year? Sanchez .735? I think not.

1st of all, I do not believe our 6-9 hitters will all be under .700 or .710 by season's end. Everyone talks about Moreland coming back to earth, but refuse to believe those under performing playerss will come back to earth (norm) as well. The fact remains, many teams have won in the last 4-5 years with several black holes. The Royals won without hitting or starting pitching. Yes, we don't have the speed or defense they had, but our pen is pretty good and our hitters and SP'ers blow them away. We can win with 3 black holes, but I firmly believe we don't have 3-4 black holes just because a 2 month sample size says so. Several of the "black holes" have an OPS over .800 the last 4 weeks. Their career numbers scream thaat they are not sub .700 hitters, but you and others feel that two month sample sizes dictate who someone is forever. With all due respect, this thinking is....Lunacy.

Certainly hitting, pitching and fielding all contribute to a team's chances at getting into the playoffs and then winning it all, but there is no clear path to winning. Teams have won with just about no hitting. The Royals went to the WS with nobody over .783 and a blah starting rotation in 2014. I do agree that pitching seems like the most needed aspect of winning in the playoffs, and our staff looks pretty good by the numbers and even better on paper, if you judge players by their last 2-3 years. Yes, we need Price and others to be healthy for the playoffs. I'm also hoping we find a way to rest Sale more often, so he can be stronger in October.

Last 28 days numbers shine a more positive light on our bottom 5: .875 Leon .780 Holt .762 JBJ .736 Vaz .668 Nunez .602 Devers .382 Swihart Last 14 days: .895 Leon .831 JBJ .686 Holt .518 Devers .408 Swihart

The 4 slot is more important than the 3 slot, according to 'studies". I like the top 4 order. The bottom 5 is frighteningly bad-looking.

Have you looked at the line-ups of recent WS winners and losers? Most have had 2-3 slots below .700. Even the 2017 Dodgers saw their 7-10 players by PAs all below .740 with one at .678. The Astros saw their 7th highest PA player bat .666. 2016: (#PA ranking that season) Cubs #5 .631 #8 .684 Guardians: #6 .693 #9 .527 #10 .591 #11 .695 #12 .579 #13 .602 (all over 150 PAs) Before 2016, we saw a lot of futility at numerous batting slots. 2015: KCR: #2 .614 (Yes, their second most PA player, Escobar, hit .614!) #6 .706 #7 .552 #9 .640 #12 .691(225 PAs) NYM: #4 .703 #5 .647 #6 .699 #7 .688 #9 .576 #11 .607 (206 PAs) If this isn't proof, look at the 2014 KCR... 2014: NOBODY hit over .783! #2 .694 #3 .692 #4 .702 #5 .632 #6 .710 #9 .632 (500 PAs) #10 .651 (290 PAs) 7 of their top 10 PA players were under .710! Imagine if the Sox had a line-up like this one! Our fans go nutty with just 2-3 guys under .710. The winning team, the SFG, saw 4 of their top 9 PA plaayers under .713 with one under .600. Teams often win with multiple "black holes", and I'm still not convinced Vaz/Leon, Devers and JBJ will be black holes all season long.

Ding, ding, DING!

What get me is that the same people who condemn on small sample sizes, disappear or find new small bad sample sizes to harp on when things start turning around to the good.

This team is not those teams. We added JD and have players returning from injury. We have addition by subtraction with players like Pablito, HRam, Rutledge, A Hill, Young, Buch, Hanigan and other.

I'm not for trading JBJ. I was just saying that JBJ's longer team control should be a factor in this sort of trade, but I was wrong about Scooter's control years. I'm firmly against trading JBJ, but I do see the point about him being replaceable-- not from inside our own current system, however. I'm not for putting JD in the OF full time. I think we're playing him out there now too much as it is. To me, I would not even think about trading JBJ this year, unless Pedey returns and looks healthy (big if) AND Nunez starts hitting and looks healthier than he does now. The idea would be to play Nunez, Holt or Swihart in LF, Beni in CF and keep JD at DH, except for NL parks. The upgrade in offense might make up for a big chunk in the loss of defense (assuming JBJ never heats up). That projected differential would then have to be weighed by the plus we get back in trade for JBJ. Again, I'm not for trading JBJ and never have been, and certainly trading him when his stock is low is not prudent.

I read this after my most recent post. You said it better than I. The gloom & doomers are farther from reality than we are.

Ever the optimist. Our catchers should hit better than the awful .450 start. Still not good though. There's no reason to have expected a continued .450 OPS from our catchers. Even .600 would be a low expectation, but the difference between .450 and .600 is huge. It makes a big difference.There's no reason to view the recent .722 last 30-day OPS as a fluke. I'll take .650 and be thrilled with our catchers. .722 would be gravy the rest of the way. It's the 11th best 30-day OPS in MLB. It baffles me how so many Sox fans jump on bad short sample size numbers, but won't view positive ones with the same force. Our catchers are not a weak point on this team, even if they hit .600 the rest of the way. It's more likely they hit between .650 and .725, IMO. JBJ is going to hit .700+ . Think you are smoking something on that one. I said .600 and "hopefully .700". JBJ has been streaky his whole career, and almost always has a very hot stretch every season that brings his OPS over .700 or even over .840. Why don't you explain why you think this season will be so much different than others? One could argue those who think JBJ will break the mold are the ones smoking something. Bogey is better this year and if they can keep him in a good spot in the lineup the hope is he won't fade in the second half again this year. Bogey clearly was playing hurt last year. if he stays healthy, IMO, he ends up over .800 easily. Beni does look for real. Glad you agree. Moreland will get his extra base hits but I don't expect him to keep up at his current level. I don't either, but I also expect those players not performing to expectations to do better and make up for those returning to earth. I do think there is a chance Moreland still ends up with a career best season- perhaps ending up over .800 or even .850. Nunez is a pro and will be a solid contributor but Pedey is an unknown. Will he play in a significant number of games. Maybe Holt takes up the slack. I'm not predicting it, but I should be allowed to be hopeful. Devers looks like he will struggle this year. He needs to make adjustments at the plate and to date he has been slow to do so. He may need a threat of being sent down to realize he needs to change. He's made adjustments at every level as he was fast-tracked up the minor league ladder. This one may take more time than others, but I'm confident he will come to life at some point this year. I was very fearful of him having to go through a learning curve during a championship run, and that's why I wanted us to sign Moose, but I never expected or thought demoting him was in the cards. Maybe he ends up in AAA at some point, but I doubt it. Holt is a pro but is always going to be a fill in. That's all we need from him. Swihart shows little sign of contributing. 3 for his last 21. Why the different criteria for him than Vaz, Leon & JBJ, who actually have been contributing to the team over the last month? Yes, at times I am optimistic. I think it's hard not to be, when you consider we have played .677 ball, despite a bunch of missed time with player injuries. We currently have Betts, Pedey, Pom, Thornburg, Smith, Maddox, Poyner and Walden on the DL. Bogey has missed time. Prcie has missed starts. ERod missed starts. Others have missed time and have played hurt. Sure, we may flop again in the playoffs this year, but this is not the same team as last year or the one before. We have the starting pitching. We have the best closer in MLB and a deep pen. Our defense has gotten better. We are near the lead in runs scored. You call this optimism: I call it realism.

Who knows. I think he was over .890 for 11 straight years. I guess we'll never know. It sure seems unfair to him, if he never touched the stuff.

One thing I remember about the Bagwell trade was that many said, "We already have a 3Bman in Boggs," but nobody thought about having Bagwell play 1B. I think we had Quintana there at the time, who was okay, but nothing great. I believe Mo Vaughn came along later, and I suppose he could have DH'd. It was a horrible trade in hindsight, and that's how most people judge trades. (GMs have always been judged that way.) It sure seems that way with Ben's deals and choices.

December 2018 Rule 5 List: Victor Acosta Christopher Acosta Yoan Aybar Roldani Baldwin Trey Ball Juan Barriento Edilson Batista Eduard Bazardo Danny Bethea Jordan Betts Marino Campana Rusney Castillo Michael Chavis Luis Colmenares Eduard Conde Harrison Cooney Jake Cosart Ricardo Cubillan Enmanuel De Jesus Chad De La Guerra Jhonathan Diaz Jerry Downs Nick Duron Junior Espinoza Willis Figueroa Devon Fisher Austin Glorius Daniel Gonzalez Juan Hernandez Darwinzon Hernandez Oscar Hernandez Tyler Hill Dedgar Jimenez Trevor Kelley Trenton Kemp Matt Kent Travis Lakins Marcos Lantigua Adam Lau Deiner Lopez Isaias Lucena Chris Madera Freiberg Marin Danny Mars Kyle Martin Algenis Martinez Tate Matheny Kevin McAvoy Daniel McGrath Samuel Miranda Joseph Monge Jhon Nunez Josh Ockimey Angel Padron Yorvin Pantoja Yankory Pimentel Jordan Procyshen Roniel Raudes Austin Rei Hildemaro Requena Denyi Reyes Eddy Reynoso Jeremy Rivera Jake Romanski Teddy Stankiewicz Kevin Steen Cole Sturgeon Josh Taylor Luke Tendler Josh Tobias Carlos Tovar Kyri Washington Jantzen Witte

Gotta agree. Nunez should scare nobody.