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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    JBJ has a long history of showing he can have significant hot streaks that are good enough to make his seasonal numbers decent or better than decent, especially when factoring in his excellent defense and base running. Swihart has never shown he can hit over .800 for a 900 PA stretch like JBJ did from 2015-2016. JBJ had a .793 OPS in over 1400 PAs from 2015-2017. That's a pretty significant sample size compared to Swihart's last 23 PAs and a 300 PA season back in 2015 where he hit an astounding .712. Am I missing your point?
  2. moonslav59
    His norm is that he's hot for stretches and cold for longer stretches. If you don't count JBJ's first 500 or so PAs in MLB, scattered over many call-ups and send downs, his seasonal numbers are not all that inconsistent: .832 in 2015 .835 in 2016 .726 in 2017 ___ in 2018? Maybe his norm is from .720-.820 with chances of falling outside maybe higher than most player's 100 point window projection.
  3. moonslav59
    Anybody getting excited about Swihart's recent tiny sample size of doing well is falling into a trap often fallen into by some. He's 9 for his last 23 PAs. That's hardly a large enough sample size to make any determination. Swihart is probably not as bad as he looked over his scattered playing time earlier this year, but he's almost certainly not this good either. That eing said, I could see why we tried to keep him in the system for as long as possible. I was fine with DFA'ing HRam to keep Swi around. I don't think there was any other move we made, where it was clear we should have DFA'd Swihart instead.
  4. moonslav59
    or his norm.
  5. moonslav59
    We've been taking more pitches for over a decade. Pitchers have been throwing more first pitch strikes for about as long. The middle relief pitching has been improving for several years, so no, it was not overnight. Pitches per PA: 3.91 in 2018 3.97 in 2017 3.94 (2016) 3.95 (2015) 4.05 (2014) 4.01 (2013) 3.89 (2012) 3.95 (2011) 4.02 (2010) 3.94 in 2007 3.93 in 2004
  6. moonslav59
    Exactly! Leon has hit .677 the last 28 days. (He was at .747 in June.)
  7. moonslav59
    Yes, but with the 5th starter moved to the pen and extra days off here and there, usually there is not an issue.
  8. moonslav59
    I wouldn't eliminate Kelly just yet. He seems to run hot or cold. Maybe by October he'll be in a hot phase. That being said, I think we should try to get a very good set-up man- just not Britton. Too many question marks for the price tag.
  9. moonslav59
    Is that enough? I guess we have 5 days off in August, so maybe we can give him an extra day's rest 2-3 times AND limit his pitch count in the games he does start, so he can be stronger come October.
  10. moonslav59
    Well, that strategy worked well for many years, until teams started beefing up their middle relief corps.
  11. moonslav59
    Anyone wanna trade JBJ, now?
  12. moonslav59
    Not my choice.
  13. moonslav59
    So, Porcello & Cora for Torres, Gray & Boone? (Sarcasm alert.)
  14. moonslav59
    Signing or trading for a 4/5 slot pitcher rarely works.
  15. moonslav59
    I hope the Yanks get one. It would mean their future would be less rosy. I'm not worried. We have a very good team and compete with anyone, as is. Sure, I'd like a great set-up RP'er, but I don't think we should give up much for a 2Bman or SP'er. Of course, if ERod, Pom or Wright can not come back, by all means, get a SP'er. I just hate getting 4-5 slot starters. Go for broke or just go with Johnson/Velazquez/Beeks/Haley is usually my mantra.
  16. moonslav59
    JBJ has passed Leon and Nunez in OPS. (Devers is the next closest at .705.) He's now at .649. I knew he was bound to have a nice streak at some point, but he's been going pretty well for quite a while now (not great but good). He was at .502 on May 12th. I'm hopeful he can stay more consistent from now on.
  17. moonslav59
    Thanks. I use fangraphs, mostly.
  18. moonslav59
    Where do you get the OOBs numbers? Just curious. fangraphs has these baserunning numbers: 2018: 4.4 Betts 4.3 JBJ & Beni 2.9 Devers 0.6 Swihart 0.3 Pearce 0.2 Travis 0.1 Pedey -0.3 Bogey -0.6 Lin -1.7 Leon -1.9 Vaz -2.0 JD -2.1 Moreland -2.3 HRam -3.1 Holt -6.0 Nunez 2017 9.2 Betts 8.3 Bogey (what happened to XB in 2018?) 5.0 JBJ 0.4 Young 0.2 Devers 0.1 Lin -1.2 Nunez -2.2 Holt -2.4 Vaz & Moreland -3.7 Leon -4.7 Pedey -5.3 HRam
  19. moonslav59
    Just guessing, but I'd say we are about at 10-15% after being near 20% last year. Here's some points I want to make: 1) A runner running all out without noticing the runner in front of him has stopped could be called "aggressive", but to me it is also "bone-headed". 2) A runner caught napping while leading off a base and being picked-off is bone-headed. (This might be hard to distinguish.) 3) A runner forgetting how many outs there are is clear bone-headedness. 4) A runner trying to take 3B with no or 2 outs, when the odds are he won't make it might be called over aggressiveness, but I call it "bone-headed" as well. 5) Not sliding when you should or diving into 1B are "bone-headed" plays. There may be more, and I encourage others to chime in with examples.
  20. moonslav59
    Maybe some. Just curious on your opinion. What percent of Sox OOBs are not a result of aggressiveness, assuming over-aggressiveness is not "bonehead?"
  21. moonslav59
    I'm not really concerned about Devers... maybe his defense, but it's mostly the throwing, which seems easier to fix. Our highest need area is probably a top set-up man, then maybe 2B, but I'd be fine with just some really good pen help. If our starters are still hurt by the dealine, maybe we look there.
  22. moonslav59
    For sure. With no Sox fans near me, this is the best I can get.
  23. moonslav59
    That logic does not fit here. Pom started 13 games in the AL in 2016. He then followed with an excellent season in 2017. He started 32 games. In 2016, Pom faced the... Yanks 3 times TBR 3 times DET 2 times LAA , BAL , CLE , SEA 1 time He then faced these AL teams in 2017 5 NYY 4 BAL 4 TBR 4 TOR 2 CWS, HOU, KCR, OAK 1 CLE, DET, MN, SEA, TEX His 2nd half ERA was better than his first: 3.01 vs 3.60.
  24. moonslav59
    Devers is still a net plus. He's on the big club to stay. Plus, we have no better options.
  25. moonslav59
    NP My eyes are bad, too, hence the bold print. I didn't think you were being snarky, but I wondered, if you felt I was trying to make a counter argument with the graphs.
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