moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I think we have 5 days off between game 162 and the first playoff game. I'm not sure we need to rest anyone down the stretch, except maybe Sale- just don't wear anybody down.
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Well, and argument could be made that the player went 6 for 6 seven days ago with 3 HRs and has gone 1 for 18 his last 6 games, and is indeed in a slump.
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If someone argued, "I've seen every play made by JBJ and every play made by Lorenzo Cain, and Cain is better, I'd listen. That would be a great counter argument. How many of us can say that about any other CF'er not named JBJ? How many can say they even see 10% of every other CF'er plays on defense? (BTW, JBJ now leads MLB in UZR/150 in 2018) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d
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Your own eyes haven't even seen maybe 27/30ths of all the CF plays made this year. Those guys, trained and calibrated, have seen 100% of all the plays.
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I'm not sure anybody means to come off that way, except maybe harmony, who uses WAR and projected WAR more than anybody I know, but I can see how it sounds like that. I'll ask this, sometimes someone will say so-and-so is slumping, and I'll reply, but so-and-so has a .875 OPS over the last 7 days, .900 over 14 days and .850 over 28 days. That may sound like a debate ender, and to me, it does end the debate, because it proves the guy is not in a slump, unless you count a 2-6 day sample size as worthy of calling a slump. Would someone argue why does OPS ends the debate?
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I believe in momentum, but I think it is too early, in a way, to get hot. I'd like to see us win about 57-60% of our games until the final week or so, then go to 80% through October. I'm thinking it's too much to hope for 80% over our final 30 games plus the playoffs.
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I don't even know the names of every team's CF'er, let alone how well they field. I know the Sox players well and that's about it. I see 162 games of opposing CF'ers- some 3 games, some 18, some 6 and some none. Don't trust me with comparative value solely by my observations.
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Porcello is still as good or better than most playoff teams' 4th starter.
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He's been out a while now. I thought it was just minor.
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Well said.
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How about comparing a bunch of guys, who together, watch every play of every game vs you and I, who watch almost only Sox games? To me, the disparity between them and us is much wider than the disparity between those guys and StatCast.
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Just curious, who sent the email?
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Yes, players will get more rest in September. Pearce has always been very good vs LHPs, so there is no reason to think he won't continue doing that once he's over this lull. It's easy to focus on our weak areas, especially when looking at recent small sample sizes, but look around the league. This happens and is happening to every team... more so to other teams.
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The guys who rate the plays are trained and calibrated, but they are human. They rotate the observers, so the number pretty much shake out over a long period of time. It's not perfect, but certainly me saying JBJ is better than any other CF'er based on my severely limited observations of other CF'ers is way, way, way more "broken/illegitimate" than UZR/150.
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Agreed, but my guess is they have a natural built in bias against fielders who make very difficult plays look easy. On the flip side, they probably pad fielders who end up making diving plays on ones JBJ catches in stride. Just my take. No data to support this. Like I've said, I think JBJ is the best SOX defensive CF'er I've seen, but I have no issue with anyone saying he's 6 or 7th best in MLB or top 8. I just don't know enough about the other 7 to make any definitive argument otherwise.
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I'll take two 4-3 wins.
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Smith and Thornburg were supposed to be out two best set-up me. They have, essentially, given us nothing due to injury. Pom was clearly our second best pitcher last year. Injury has turned him into mush. His replacement, Wright, has missed most of the year. Erod has missed 7+ starts. Sale and Price have missed about 6 between them. If you add them all up, we've lost more starts from our best starters than the Yanks: 4 Sale 16 Pom (and the 11 he gave us sucked) 2 Price 8 ERod 20+ Wright Yes, Betts & Bogey did not miss much time, but Pedey had been out all year, Devers has been on the DL twice, Pedey's back-up, Marco Hernandez, has missed the whole year. Nunez has been playing hurt, and we lost our starting catcher right as he had begun to heat up. I'm not saying our injuries are worse than yours, but it's pretty close, for sure. Besides, weren't you guys the team that had all this amazing young depth that there weren't even enough roster spaces for everyone?
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Both are too damn good to have extended slumps.
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Cuevas Ks 10 in 7 IP (1 BB), 5 hits and 2 ER. Lakins shuts 'em down for 2 IP, although he let up 3 hits. Witte goes 4 for 5 with his 10 dinger for the Sea Dogs. ERod looked sharp in 4 IP. Chatham goes 4 for 5. He's up to .324, now.
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Yes, I do. Of course they are wrong here and there, but together, they DO watch every play of every game, unlike I do, so I value their numbers when looking across the league and comparing our players to some I rarely see.
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Totally agree In ERod starts we're 16-3 It's plain to see to you and me
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Before tonight, here are the ERA- leaders in the AL: 100+IP 45 Sale 49 Snell 51 Bauer 66 Verlander 66 G Cole (4 ER in 6 IP tonight) 67 Kluber 73 Fiers 74 Morton 76 Clevinger 76 Severino 78 ERod 79 Price 82 Carrasco 83 Gibson 26. Porcello 95 We're missing 2 of the top 11 ERA- pitchers in the AL and still have a big lead. Wait till they come back!
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I'm thinking if a player makes a difficult play look easy, it may cause the observer to think the ball was medium not hard hit or within everyone's range, when it wasn't. I remember seeing JBJ make one of the best catches I ever saw, and they said it was a 40% catchable ball. Now, maybe I was wrong, but certainly the observer could be, too.
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Relax!
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Good point. Just go with Leon and get these games over with quickly.
