moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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If I had to choose 3 & 3: Out: COL OAK Cubs In: PHI STL TBR
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If you had to project a reasonable floor and ceiling for Devers from here on forward, what would it be? He's at .769 now with a 162 game average of... .254 28 87 I guess one could think a flame out is possible, but I'd put those odds at very slight. Nothing seems to bother this kid. He's fearless and seems to work hard at improving his faults. I'm think high-lows might be something like this: Ages 22-26 .240 25 75 (.740) .280 35 100 (.820) Ages 27-31 .250 28 85 (.780) .290 45 120 (.900) Ages 32-36 .230 20 70 (.720) .275 25 85 (.800)
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True, but JBJ was near 4:1 after his first 2 seasons. The big difference was that JBJ's minor league career showed a much lower K:BB ratio (236:167).
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Sox highest K rates last year: 26% JBJ 25% Devers 23% JDM 22% Moreland 20% Holt 18% Bogey 16% Beni 15% Betts 14% Nunez Highest Sox K rates over the last 3 years combined: 25 TShaw 25 Leon 24 Devers 24 JBJ 23 JDM 21 Moreland 21 CYoung 20 HRam 19 Holt 18 Vaz 18 Bogey 17 Beni 14 Nunez 14 Papi 12 Betts 10 Pedey
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K rate is a very good tool to use to raise a red flag, but there are quite a few high K rate players today who provide a big plus to their teams. Stanton finished 5th highest in K% at 30% while providing a 4.2 WAR last year. 14 of the top 17 K rate players had a WAR of 2 or more (including JBJ). 17 of 21 had a WAR at 2.0+ and 21 out of 26, including Goldschmidt 5.1, 3.5 BHarper, JBaez 5.3, TStory 5.0, TPham 4.0, MOlsen 3.4, Schwarber 3.2, KDavis 2.6, J Aguilar, CTaylor & J Upton at 3.1, J Gallo 2.8 & Conforto at 3.0 High K guys can be successful.
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I agree, but $35M could get us 2-3 very good players. If we keep Betts, too. We'd be spending $100+M on 3 players.
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I think what Sale would give us over the first 4 years of the 6 year deal would be worth having to deal with an expected decline in years 5 & 6. Of course, I'd have trepidation, too, but Sale is just too great to let walk away. I'm thinking a 6 year deal is less than he'd get on the open market, so that's our "hometown discount."
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There's no such thing as hope, even if it based on plenty of supporting data.
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At least he's consistent. IMO, he uses WAR and projected WAR to a fault, and I disagree with his outlook, at times. If a Sox fan was projecting a Sox player doing poorly, he'd probably show a projection that shows them being better. That just doesn't happen often.
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What's one more year? We'd be lucky he didn't hold out for 8 years.
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I think his point was more about how we feel about Eovaldi, now vs how we felt about Pom last March. Not 2018 Pom vs 2018 or 2019 Eovaldi.
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I agree, and I hope we find a way to keep Sale.
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I've thought about this, and it does play into the "how we felt about this rotation vs how we felt about last year's rotation in March" argument. I'm hopeful Eovaldi won't go the route of Pom Pom. Man, Drew sure missed a nice pay check by sucking last year!
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lol!
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Devers will end up with a career OPS higher than .777. This Betts comp is not related. We're talking about Devers' career floor and ceiling. I don't think saying .777 might be his floor is all that whacky. He's at .769 by age 21. Geesh!
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I'd pay $35M x 6 for... Chris Freakin' Sale Wait until after the season begins to make it official.
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I found "$35M plus"... https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikedowling/2019/03/14/sale-red-sox-on-verge-of-contract-extension/#7a50a4d63991
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Where's the link?
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$41M a year?
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MLBTR... Nathan Eovaldi re-signed with the Red Sox on a four-year, $68MM contract in December, but only after the right-hander drew serious interest from elsewhere. The Angels and Phillies “really wanted” Eovaldi, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, though the feeling wasn’t mutual. During the free-agent process, Eovaldi informed his agency, ACES, he only wanted to sign with the Red Sox or his hometown Astros, according to Bradford. But the Astros, despite the questions in their rotation, didn’t pursue the 29-year-old. “Houston is home for me,” Eovaldi told Bradford. “I would have had more talks with the Astros but they just didn’t want any part of it so they were out of the question. While Eovaldi added that he was “a little surprised” the Astros ignored him, he’s happy to be back in Boston after helping the club to a championship in 2018.
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True, so maybe they should have changed "all time" to last 50 years or so...
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Let's compare their numbers at the same ages and when the reach prime. Pablo from age 23-27: .292 BA (Maybe Devers ends up under this.) 103 HR in 3070 ABs (Maybe Devers ends up much higher here.) .345 OBP .464 SLG .809 OPS Maybe .809 is his floor over the next 6 years. Counting all his seasons after age 22, Pablo hit .775. Maybe that's "the floor" going forward.
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I think they were thinking all around with a heavy influence on defense.
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Devers was younger, when he started out in the bigs. I guess one could view Pablo as the floor for Devers.
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Thanks! Topped out at 93. Pretty good.
