moonslav59

Some say Eovaldi was overpaid. Sale's contract was a discount- not a FA, I know. I see no evidence the market has spiked a lot from last year. Alex Cobb got $19M. He's in the same class as Eovaldi & Happ. They got less.

I think you answered your own question. Too much was expected from Burkett & Castillo/ Tony Clark & Rey Sanchez. Still, we only had 4 holes. We did win 93 games in 2002. That's about what some are projecting this team to win.

It's a record of what pitchers were signed for who were expected to be a 3 or 4 starter. Yes, the market has changed, and the data I presented shows that.

I said, great for 6-7 years. .811 OPS for a catcher was and still is great. His defense was great. His record with pitchers was great. He got much more out of Pedro, Lowe & Beckett than almost all others. He did poorly with Wake for obvious reasons. He got more out of Schilling near the end of his career than others. Plus, he put ARod in his place. Look, Munson was great. Nettles was great. It's not that hard to admit an rival's player was great. Try it. He was great for a period of time.

More evidence that this guy is a clown.

Well, Jalen Beeks got us Eovaldi. Santiago Espinal got us Pearce. Saun Anderson & Gregory Santos got us Nunez. Stephen Nogosek, Gerson Bautista and Jamie Callahann got us Addison Reed. Are you saying we don't have farm hands like these to trade this summer?

You chose all the best contracts for your position, so here are some from another side: 2014-15 $19M x 4 Shields (declined QO) $14M x 4 Santana (declined QO) $13M x 3 Liriano (declined QO) 2015-16 $18M x 5 Samardzija (QO) $16M x 2 Lackey (QO) $16M x 3 Kazmir 2016-17 $16M x 3 R Hill $11M x 2 E Volquez $9M x 3 I Nova 2017-18 $19M x 3 ACobb $13M x 3 Chatwood 2018-2019 $17M x 2 Happ $17M x 4 Eovaldi $15M x 2 Morton $10M x 3 Lynn

Nobody will complain, except maybe in private with the manager, about a catcher they don't want catching them. There are varying degrees of comfort levels. Nobody is saying it is black or white or that I (or we) know more about the comfort levels than you and others do. The Sox have a long record of giving our best starters a personal caddy/catcher. They rarely stray from that plan, unless there's an injury. There's a reason for doing this. There's a reason Sale was caught by Leon 87% of the time and Swihart 0%. Yes, of course, Sale might quickly build up a decent comfort level with Swihart. He's had some time with Vaz (218 PAs) and still has a 1.00 better ERA with Leon. Does it tale 100 PAs, 200, 400? Does it just take practicing with the catcher in ST'ing and off days? None of us know. We do know Sale and Price did way better with Leon. With Sale, neven better than the catchers with the White Sox (in more of a pitcher's park). With Price, Vaz has more PAs than Leon, so it can't be about "building a comfort level over time," and yet with Leon we see a 1.50 better ERA! Everybody knows Price was a better pitcher with the Rays before coming to Boston. Boston is a hitter's park, and yet, Price has a better ERA with Leon than he did with almost every catcher he pitched to in Detroit & TB. ERA with BOS: 3.74 ERA with TBR: 3.18 ERA with DET: 2.90 ERA by catcher (180+ PAs) 2.30 Martin 2.67 Avila 2.78 McCann 2.83 Leon 2.85 Molina 3.06 Jaso 3.09 Navarro 3.61 Shoppach 3.75 Gimenez + Hernandez 3.86 Lobaton 4.19 Zaun 4.32 Vaz (5.73 Swihart in 48 PAs) These numbers are shocking. I'm not saying they are total predictors of what is to come, but I'm a bit surprised by some who don't seem to think there is reason for concern. I'm trying to be hopeful concerning the length of the learning curve, but I am pretty sure there will be one with Swihart and between Vaz and Sale, assuming he becomes Sale's new binky.

I'm the one bringing up the Sale differentials, and I never said Sale will suck or even be bad or average. I said I was worried about the learning curve and building a comfort level with Swihart and to a lesser extent Vaz. Are you saying those past, sometime massive, differentials are meaningless? If not, how long would you guess it will take Sale, Price and Porcello to get to a near comfort level these guys had with Leon (and Vaz when comparing Vaz to Swihart)? Again, I am not crushed by Leon's departure. His offense has been putrid for 2 years, and he was basically just 2 pitchers' caddy last year. The world will not end. I'm sticking with my 104 games won projection, but I'm not as confident about it. Sale, Price and Porcello have pitched with many catchers over their careers, and one more should not make or break anyone. I'm pretty sure all three would much prefer Leon catches them over Swihart, even if he hits a .300 OPS. Their feelings about Leon vs Vaz might not be all that different, except for maybe Sale.

Leon 2009: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS826&biw=1366&bih=641&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=5FOZXOXsNYugjwT9qqu4Ag&q=sandy+leon+2009&oq=sandy+leon+2009&gs_l=img.12...5369.5369..8445...0.0..0.63.63.1......1....1..gws-wiz-img._zMUjyvq92g#imgrc=rJMMojKAtOcnVM: Leon 2014: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS826&biw=1366&bih=641&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=5FOZXOXsNYugjwT9qqu4Ag&q=sandy+leon+2009&oq=sandy+leon+2009&gs_l=img.12...5369.5369..8445...0.0..0.63.63.1......1....1..gws-wiz-img._zMUjyvq92g#imgrc=rJMMojKAtOcnVM: Leon 2019: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1CAHKDC_enUS826&biw=1366&bih=641&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=MVSZXMj7DcfIjwSbpZOgDw&q=sandy+leon+2019&oq=sandy+leon+2019&gs_l=img.3...1158.3298..5215...0.0..0.61.169.3......1....1..gws-wiz-img.qj60SbrIpK8#imgrc=t-ljwfsCo3uNUM:

It took VTek 7-8 years to get good on offense and defense. It's not unheard of, especially for someone who has been hurt and spent time learning other positions or riding the bench. I have my doubts, for sure, but I'm holding out hope.

He can get better. The catching position probably takes the longest to fully master. Let's see what happens.

I get your point, and I have never denied pitchers can become more or as comfortable with Vaz or Swihart. My concern has always been how long the learning curve might be, and if they ever reach the same level. We chose the unknown over the known, and I get the argument about upside potential.

Good point. I never thought of him that way.

It's not about staff ERA, it's about staff ERA with VTek vs the other catcher on the same team. He clearly got the best out of what we had. These are the pitchers with the most IP from 2001-2007. Other than Pedro, Schill & Beckett, there's not much there. Pedro 2.45 w VTek (4491 PAs) (best of any catcher with 134+ PAs) 2.62 Piazza (788 2.71 Hatteberg (959) 3.08 Fletcher (2524) 3.40 Castro (776) 3.86 Lo Duca (477) 6.60 Schnieder (213) Schilling (Joined Sox post-prime) 3.22 DMiller 3.27 Lieberthal 3.51 Daulton 3.96 VTek 4.25 Mirabelli Wakefield (Vtek struggled catching the knuckler- no doubt) 2.87 Mcfarlane 4.12 Mirabelli 4.42 Hasselman 4.53 Hatteberg 4.56 KCash 4.59 Kottaras 4.66 VTek 5.16 VMart 5.21 Salty 5.24 Slaught 5.60 Stanley DLowe 3.52 RMartin 3.63 VTek 3.96 Hatteberg 4.45 BMcCann 4.91 Mirabelli 5.17 DRoss Beckett .299 IRodriguez 3.68 VTek 3.73 Lo Duca 4.52 AJ Ellis 4.56 Redmond 4.83 Salty 5.46 Shoppach 6.97 KCash 7.94 Lavarnway 10.32 Kottaras

He looks no different today than 3-4 years ago.

Let's not gloss over the intangibles VTek brought to the game. He was a great game-caller and a master hitter analyst. He became a great pitch blocker & framer. His only weak area on defense was his arm. From 2001-2007, he had the 3rd best catcher WAR (18.2). To me, that is great and certainly much better than "above average". His OPS in that period was .811. That is great for a catcher.

I think it is pretty obvious 2-3 SP'ers on the Sox loved to have Leon catch them. They will never say they don't want Swihart catching them, but the fact is Swihart has 0 PAs caught with Sale and 48 with Price. That is not just happenstance.

VTek was great for about 5-6 years.

I'm willing to keep an open mind on Swihart's potential, and let's remember that VTek did not become all that great until 28 and older. I share your opinion on not seeing anything up to this point that would indicate he can be plus of offense or defense in a short period of time going forward.

Had we just released him, would we have been off the hook?

If he clears waiver and agrees to go to Pawtucket, do we still owe him $2,4M?

If he starts every time ERod starts plus a couple here and there, he may get just 40 games as a catcher, barring a Vaz injury. Maybe he plays some at 1B, but we have Moreland and Pearce (who has shown he can hit righties better than Swihart), and Holt can play 1B and may be in need of some PAs to stay sharp. Maybe he plays some OF, but with everyone healthy, JD should play OF in NL parks and/or when an OF'er needs a rest. Holt can also play OF (see 1B comment). I doubt he plays 3B or 2B, unless there is an injury. We have Nunez and Holt, and would call-up Lin if an infielder gets hurt. I'm still not sure Swihart gets "the chance" everyone is waiting for.

That would mean an injury or a September call-up.

I'm hopeful Vaz can fill the void, but I think the learning curve with Swihart may take longer. The good thing is that ERod doesn't seem to care who catches him and Eovaldi has not been here long enough to miss Sandy all that much. Porcello's numbers are close, too. My guess is Vaz catches Sale, Price and Porcello plus some with Eovaldi. Swihart catches ERod a little with Eovaldi. (Just my gut feeling.) One last time, here are the current career splits by catcher: Sale 2.42 w Leon (1250 PAs) Best of all catchers 850+ PAs 3.40 w Vaz (218) No PAs with Swihart Price 2.83 w Leon (769) Best of any catcher with 455+ PAs 4.32 w Vaz (1113) 5.73 w Swihart (48) Porcello 4.14 w Leon (2030) Best of any catcher with 230+ PAs 4.15 w Vaz (564) 4.59 w Swihart (498) ERod 4.00 w Leon (415) Best of all catchers with 222+ PAs 4.08 w Swihart (4.08) 4.24 w Vaz (1178) No catcher in MLB has gotten a better ERA with more PAs than Leon with these four pitchers who have had good to great careers. Eovaldi (small sample size alert) 0.55 Vaz (65) 3.86 Leon (146) No PAs with Swihart If Swihart catches just ERod, maybe the learning curve will not be too long or too costly.