moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Thanks for being honest. I'm not a huge Law fan either, but it's helpful to get several opinions through various rankings.
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So, if a RP'er who only comes in for 1 out has a 1.50 ERA, he's better than a RP'er who almost always comes in for 3 outs (like Kimbrel) and has a 2.00 ERA?
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I agree, but even if Poyner looks better than Hembree in ST'ing, we'll go with the out-of-options Hembree to keep all choices within the system. I like Velazquez more than Thornburg, too, but if THornburg can return to just 80-90% of his big year with MIL, we will give him a shot to show he can do it. We may also start someone on the phantom DL, if we really want to add someone below the line to the 25 man roster.
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We've already done more than that.
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Does a slight edge over 6 innings outweigh a deficit over 3 innings? We'll find out. I think the odds-makers will give us the edge on opening day.
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Where did Law rank Andujar in 2016, 2017 & 2018?
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Haven't we all been saying for years that GMs are dumb for paying big-named FAs basically for their past performance and not future projected output? So, maybe stat geeks have shown them the truth and they finally realized the initial bump you get for these mega signings almost always sours over time, often over a short time. I still think Machado and Harper will get mega deals- maybe not $300M and probably not 9-10 years, but they will do fine. How are you so sure the strong possibility of a recession is not playing a part in teams tightening their budgets?
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So, Law never moved Andujar up in his rankings after doing well in the minors? How many times does a prospect improve in the minors and then still never make it in the majors? Should a rankings guy be bashed for not moving some guys up for doing very well in the minors? I contend that nobody can be "proven wrong" until after the prospect makes it to the majors and does well, okay or poorly for a few years.
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We've added Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season and have Thornburg & Pedey returning from total lost seasons (maybe). Losing Kelly was not huge, and Kimbrel dropped off a lot from 2017. There's a chance the additions I mentioned offset or surpass the loos of Kimbrel, but "not improving" is a fair opinion. The Yanks made some gains, for sure, but not having Didi and other questions still linger. It won't be a cakewalk for sure, but I still think we have a slight edge- on paper.
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That's as realistic as anyone can be.
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I agree, but then,,,, There is still spending going on. The Sox will spend the same. The Yanks and Dodgers added salary. Maybe the owners sense the economy is about to collapse. There is a lot of similarities to the late 1920's and many economists are forecasting a recession.
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Can anyone really be proven wrong in the minors?
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lol
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I'd guess... NYY 12-20 BOS 22-30
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RP'ers are different. 1) They sometimes come in with 1 or 2 outs (not so often with Kimbrel). That should automatically lower their ERA;s because the only need to get 1 or 2 outs in the inning. 2) ERA- and ERA+ adjusts the ERA based on other factors. It's still all about runs allowed, but it adjusts for factors out of the pitcher's control. ERA- (fangraphs) 47 Kimbrel 57 Uehara ERA+ (baseball reference) 211 Kimbrel 162 Uehara (I had made a mistake in my earlier ERA+ data.)
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Yes, Koji was terrific and for 7 years. I like ERA- and ERA+ rather than ERA, and Koji has a slight edge there, but ERA is not a great stat for RP'ers.
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Is this like him saying there were no surgeries scheduled?
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If everyone is healthy, here's my list in order of best chance at making the 12 man pitching staff on opening day. (Options remaining will play a factor.) 1. Sale 3 2. Price 2 3. Porcello 0 4. Eovaldi 0 5. Rodriguez 2 6. Barnes 2 7. Wright 0 8. Brasier 2 9. Hembree 0 10. Johnson 0 11. Thornburg 0 12. Workman 0 13. Velazquez 2 14. Poyner 2 15. Walden 1 Brewer 2, DHernandez 3, Lakins 3, J Taylor 3, DReyes 3, Shepherd 2
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He wasn't a closer, so that hurts when comparing, but to me, the numbers that count the most are WHIP or OPS against and K rate/ BB rate (I like K/BB that covers both) show them very close. In my previous comp, I left off the first years of both and took away Uehara's last year. Here are their full career numbers: You said the rest of Koji's career, he was "good," but I think he was much more than good for a long time (7 years). OPS Against .485 Kim (.476 Late & Close) .588 Koji (.566 Late & Close) WHIP 0.890 Koji 0.920 Kim K/BB 7.33 Koji 4.23 Kim K/9 14.7 Kim 10.7 Koji BB/9 1.5 Koji 3.5 Kim ERA+ 211 Kim 162 Koji Post Season WHIP- K/9 0.833- 10.5 1.258- 2.1 Save% 91% Kim (333/372) 84% (95/113) Koji IS% 19% (15/77) 26% (27/105) I think it's closer than it might seem. I have no beef with anyone saying Kimbrel is better, but it's close, and I think Uehara was more than just good outside of 2013.
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Vaz did very well in pitch framing last year, too. Leon was better, but Vaz was top 10 out of the 60 or so listed.
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I get that, but I'm asking if you add value to a catcher who does that more than the average catcher does?
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...and some of these sample sizes are huge.
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Yes, so if fangraphs gives none of this value to the catcher, then could their numbers be misleading?
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He was off the charts in 2013, but he had several excellent years. WHIP- K/BB Uehara (7 nice years, including 1 great one!) 0.96- 11.0 ('10) 0.72- 9.44 ('11) 0.64- 14.3 ('12) 0.57- 11.2 ('13) 0.92- 10.0 ('14) 0.92- 5.22 ('15) 0.96- 5.73 ('16) Kimbrel (8 nice years including 2 great ones) 1.04- 3.97 ('11) 0.65- 8.29 ('12) 0.88- 4.90 ('13) 0.91- 3.65 ('14) 1.05- 3.95 ('15) 1.09- 2.77 ('16) 0.68- 9.00 ('17) 1.00- 3.10 ('18) Koji 7 seasons blows Kimbrel 8 seasons away on K/BB K/BB 8.78 Koji 4.38 Kimbrel WHIP is closer but still clearly in Koji's favor 0.795 Koji 0.908 Kimbrel For reference sake... Mo Rivera from 1999-2012- his best stretch: 0.942 WHIP 4.74 K/BB Let's not shortchange Koji just because his one great year was so fantastic. He had a nice streak before and afterwards: 2010-2012: 0.772- 10.76 2014-2016 0.930-6.79 Amazing numbers without 2013.
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It's hard to build comfort levels with RP'ers you catch only for a few batters scattered over a season. The Sox use personal caddies for most of their starters, so there is ample time to build a relationship.
