moonslav59

If he waits until July 31st, the cost should be about 1/3 or $2M for a 6 million dollar man. He could get two and still be under the max line.

His plan might be to simply fix the pen mid season at a reduced cost. Look what we gave up for Eovaldi last summer. I'm not saying that type of deal can be easily duplicated, but that sort of deal is better than paying Kimbrel $29M and being bumped down in the draft for the second year in a row.

Because $29M for Kimbrel is insane. The article also says what Ottavino would have cost. Also, I said no limit but be prudent. I have no beef with the arguments on why he's not signing someone at $3M, but maybe he thinks trading during season will net a better RP'er for the money, and being strong for the playoffs is more important than being strong in February.

Even if any GM had no spending limit, none would pay Kimbrel $29M for 2019.

Maybe Henry told DD there is no spending limit but to be prudent, and DD does not want to pay Kimbrel $29M for 2019.

Yes, and if things look bad in May or June, it is possible to make deals then, if needed.

Now, a step forward. It is totally possible that DD can have no spending limit but still see how ridiculous it would be to pay Kimbrel $29M for 2019. It's DD who is making the right choice. It's n ot Henry telling him, "No."

There's probably a better chance of him getting healthy than giving all that money back.

He may keep the dream of a comeback alive for a year or two more. That's too much to just give back. Maybe he would restructure the deal into a 25 year personal services deal.

He may never play again, but retiring and giving up all those millions is a long shot call. Dempster did it, but that was just one year left.

Only Sox pitchers lack durability. Now that Paxton is a Yank, he's a lock for 200+ IP.

Steve Adams.... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/a-closer-look-at-the-red-sox-and-the-luxury-tax.html Here is part of the article If the Sox were to pay Kimbrel a $17.5MM annual salary, the first $4,703,803 of that salary would close the gap between Boston’s current “actual” payroll and the $246MM threshold. As noted above, that’d come with a $1,986,937 luxury hit, coming to a total of $6,690,740. The remaining $12,769,197 would come with a hefty tax of $9,576,898. That’s a total of $11.564MM just in taxes before considering the money the team would actually owe to Kimbrel himself. Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing. (A multi-year deal, of course, might have greater or lesser salaries in its various seasons, though that’s all averaged for the CBT.) Frankly, even beyond any concerns about lengthy commitment to a not-so-youthful reliever, it’s pretty clear to see why the Sox don’t have much interest in retaining Kimbrel unless his price tag craters (at which point a plethora of other teams would join the bidding). Though the total luxury tax bill would still not make up an enormous amount of the team’s total payroll-related spending, it would perhaps turn a Kimbrel signing from a hefty investment to an eye-popping splurge. That math is also informative when examining why the Sox have passed over other top-end relievers. For instance, beating the Yankees’ three-year, $27MM offer to Adam Ottavino by a margin of $500K annually would’ve still been costly for Boston. As with any contract, the first $4,703,803 of the deal would’ve been taxed at $1,986,937. The remaining $4,796,197 would come with a $3,597,148. In total, signing Ottavino at a $9.5MM annual salary would effectively cost $15.084MM in 2019.

LOL, BTW, I never copy and paste stats.

Agreed, but ERA for RP'ers is even worse.

Red Sox To Sign Dan Runzler By Jeff Todd | February 1, 2019 at 7:35pm CDT The Red Sox have added reliever Dan Runzler on a minors deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). It isn’t yet known whether he’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp. A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level. Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.

Maybe after BA.

Is this all we have to talk about? Sadly, that's just about a yes.

Sometimes, you really grasp the full scope of something!

Jack!

I say... 60% BOS 35% NYY 5% Others

Yes! When you make trades at the deadline, you only count 1.3 of the salary. In theory, we could trade for 3 guys making salaries of $8M and only owe $8M. That's better than signing one guy to 8M/1 right now.

You are not getting my point. If a pitcher comes in with 2 outs, it is much harder for him to let up his own earned run than if he comes in with 0 or 1 out. He only needs to get one out to keep his ERA for that game at 0.00. Coming in with no outs, the pitcher has to get 3 outs or hope the guy that releives him does not let his runners score). Scenario 1: Pitcher comes in with 2 outs and none on. He walks 3 guys. He needs to get just 1 out.What's the chance he lest up a run, or 2 or more? Scenario 2: Pitcher comes in with 0 outs and none on. He walks 3 guys. he needs to get 3 outs. What's the chance he lest up a run, or 2 or more? All things being equal, a pitcher who always comes in with 2 outs should have a much better ERA than one who always comes in with no outs (or 1 out).

If you look at the hype factor, the Yankee fans were hyping their players last year as much as Paxton now. They had Lynn and Happ, too. Sonny Gray was viewed as a big addition (by me, too). Is how people feel about Paxton now all that much more rosy than they felt about Lynn & Gray last year? Is Ottavino really an upgrade over Robertson? Maybe Didi never comes back or is not the same upon return? All we hear about is the severity of Pedey and Wright's injuries and Sale's status in the second half of 2018.

Yes, and I've discussed the downsides many times, as well. I did get upset with all the naysayers last summer. All teams go through rough patches, and I guess some people just assume the team can only keep playing like they look in the last 2-3 or 7 games, or whatever. To me, we had a great team on paper day one. That awesome start showed we were great. We had some bumps along the way, but we were always great. The playoffs were proof.

I agree, but the point was made to show that this thread is not always optimistic. Sometimes the team is better than those on this thread, including myself, think they are.