moonslav59

"Boston surpassed the threshold by slightly beyond $40.85MM..." My guess is, we did not exceed the $40M line, if we came that close.,

I'm not a big fan of these WAR projection services. I'm more about 2-3 year sample sizes not one year. One never knows how much other GMs value players like Chavis and Shawaryn. Maybe it might take Chavis and Johnson or Chavis, Workman & Shawaryn.

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts that the Sox might be interested in kicking the tires: $17.5M x 4 Kimbrel $15M x 4 Eovaldi $16M x 2 Morton $11M x 3 J Familia $11M x 3 Z Britton $11M x 3 Robertson $11M x 3 Ryu $10M x 3 Ottavino $9M x 3 A Miller $9M x 3 J Kelly $8M x 1 Herrera $11M x 2 M Harvey $11M x 2 T Cahill $7M x 6 Y Kikuchi $8M x 2 C Allen $7.5M x 2 D Holland $6M x 2 B Brach $6M x 2 W Miley $5M x 2 G Richards $5M x 2 J Chavez $6M x 1 E Santana

1) Barnes has been good for more than 1 year. 2) We are not looking to rebuild: Texas is.

I can see Vazquez catching 4 starters and Leon just Sale. Maybe let Leon catch Price here and there, when Vaz needs a breather. I'm thinking we might trade Swihart and Johnson (both out of options) for a better 6th starter or a decent Rp'er... not a prospect.

There are plenty of options. The Red Sox could also resign Kelly and give him the role. The Red Sox don't need a long term closer--they already have that locked up in Feltman. The Red Sox need a bridge closer, a guy who can do the job for one season until Feltman is ready in 2020. I would sign Britton to a one year pillow contract. Throw extra cash in the contract to entice Britton to sign a one year deal. If he rediscovers his dominant form, the Red Sox can get a pick for Britton next year. It's funny, to me, how a guy like Kelly, who most of us didn't want to even be on the playoff rosters, is now being considered as a possible replacement for Kimbrel. I'm not high on Britton, but I think he has a better shot of being a capable closer than Kelly does. He might just go for a one year deal, but if we are looking to reset the tax after 2020, we can go 2 years, if needed. The thing that many people are overlooking is just how well Dombrowski has rebuilt the farm system. The Red Sox must have the best farm system in baseball that no one talks about. The Red Sox have several future major league starters in the system, Groome, Houck, Shawaryn. A future closer in Feltman. And future infield starters such as Casas (long ways away), Dalbec (could be ready in 2020 for 1b or 3b), Flores (long ways away), Chatham (perhaps a future starter at 2b, could be ready in 2020), Ockimey (could be ready in 2020), and Lakins (profiles as an above average set up reliever). I disagree. I realize DD has not had any high draft picks and started off with a year of international FA signing ban, and he's done pretty good under those circumstances, but I see our farm as being very weak. Plus, our best prospects just had surgery or PED suspensions. I'm not too optimistic about any prospect helping the big team in the next year or two. Beyond that, it's hard to project. It wouldn't make sense for the Red Sox to offer Pearce anything more than a one year contract; Dalbec and Ockimey will be cheap options at first base in 2020. Moreland has only one year remaining on his contract. My guess is we let Ockimey & Chavis fight for a 25 man roster slot in 2019. If neither does well, we will look to trade for a platoon 1Bman again next summer. While the Red Sox have some promising minor league infielders, their minor league outfielders really suck, it is a weakness in the organization, but two of the three OF spots are locked up long term: Benintenti & Betts. I'm not sure about Bradley. For some players, defense declines rather early and Bradley's bat doesn't carry him. JBj has 2 more years of control and hit over .830 over his last 81 games. I'm hopeful his bat will be fine going forward. Over the past 3-4 years, his bat has been a plus, when compared to other MLB CF'ers. I think we tend to remember the recent good sample sizes for guys like Kelly, Brasier and Barnes, but neglect to credit guys like JBJ for much longer sample sizes of good play. Just my perception.

The best one.

2004 was a magical season that broke a cycle of frustration and ineptitude. It will likely be the most special championship for most Sox fans old enough to realize the significance of that season. The way we came back vs our nemesis, the Yanks, make that season even more legendary and memorable. 2007 showed the world the Sox were here to stay and that 2004 was not a fluke. It's actually pretty amazing how few players were significant players on both the 2004 and 2007 teams. Bothe the 2004 and 2007 teams were great teams on paper. 2013 was a season of guts and grit. The way the city responded to the Marathon bombing and united in so many ways was a special back-drop to that season's championship run. It was hard not to love that team. They were not the best, on paper, but the clubhouse was tight, and they pulled together to do whatever it took to win it all. To me, 2018 is the best team on paper. The record, the coaching, the balance, and the focus & determination combined seemed unmatched by previous Sox teams. I wouldn't call the 2018 championship season the most memorable, but to me, this is the best Sox team I have ever seen, and I've been a Sox fan since 1972. 2004, 2007, 2013, 1975 and 1978 were great teams, too, but this one is better.

I'd prefer Porcello, too, but... Porcello 1863 Innings, 1998 hits with Boston: 990 Innings, 802 Hits

Most GMs do not look at just the most recent one year sample size. Leclerc sucked in 2016 and 2017. That being said, I don't think Chavis is enough to get Leclerc. Maybe Chavis and Shawryn could get it done.

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts: $21.5M x 6 Corbin $20.5M x 4 Keuchel $17.5M x 4 Kimbrel $15M x 4 Eovaldi $16M x 3 JA Happ $16M x 2 Morton

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts: $21.5M x 6 Corbin $20.5M x 4 Keuchel $17.5M x 4 Kimbrel $15M x 4 Eovaldi $16M x 3 JA Happ $16M x 2 Morton $11M x 3 J Familia $11M x 3 Z Britton $11M x 3 Robertson $11M x 3 Ryu $10M x 3 Ottavino $9M x 3 A Miller $9M x 3 J Kelly $8M x 1 Herrera $12M x 2 Gio Gonzalez $11M x 2 A Sanchez $11M x 2 M Harvey $11M x 2 T Cahill $9M x 2 J Soria $7M x 6 Y Kikuchi $8M x 2 L Lynn $8M x 2 C Allen $7.5M x 2 D Holland $8M x 1 Sabathia $6M x 2 B Norris $6M x 2 B Brach $6M x 2 W Miley $5M x 2 G Richards $5M x 2 J Chavez $6M x 1 E Santana $6M x 1 Pomeranz

You don't like Ottavino enough to include him on your list?

I'm thankful you pointed out my faulty lingo. I do think there are varying degrees of asking for what they want, in terms of who their catcher should be. I think if a pitcher is very forceful in his wishes and the numbers back him up, any good manager would listen and probably do what the pitcher wants, because it is what is best for the team anyways.

In reality, the majority of the 25 man roster is already set, with DD having limited resources to replace key losses and to reduce risks. A subject that might be discussed is what Cora and the Sox should discuss with the players as avenues of improvement. I don't have a lot in mind at this point but would suggest a couple. 1. Dever should work on his weight and trim down a little. He has the body type that is broad to start with and at a listed 239 pounds and around 6 feet tall he was over what he should have been as an infielder. If he could trim down to 220 or 215 it could help his range and maybe avoid later joint issues. If he can get down to 225-230, and stay there, it would probably be enough. I'm expecting a significant improvement with Devers (and Nunez) at 3B next year, regardless of weight loss or gain. The weight issue is probably more about long term production from Rafael. 2. Beni has nice swing mechanics but I notice far too many balls fouls off to his left and a lot of weakly hit balls to left field. I would like to see him develop more ability to hit to all fields. He is a young player and it would help his game. This makes sense, but messing with a player's swing who improved his OBP to .366 this year and has a career .806 OPS at age 23 (and 1400+ PAs), is asking for trouble. I'm fine with having a lefty that loves to go opposite field. I'd like to see him spread out the hits, but I think Beni will improve, as is. 3. E-Rod has been said to have great stuff but he continued throughout the year to nibble around the edges of the plate and often going deep into counts and walking batters. The result was a 5 inning pitcher. If he truly has the stuff to be a No. 3 starter he needs to change his approach to get deeper into games. Watching ERod pitch is extremely frustrating, and he taxes our pen more than any other top starter on the staff. He has, perhaps, the nastiest stuff on the staff, but nibbles too much for anybody's liking. The team did go 19-4 in his starts (20-4 counting the playoffs). To me, just stay healthy, and we'll be fine here. 4. JBJ is a great fielder with a marginal hitting capability. At his age and experience level, I believe it is what we see is what we will continue to get. He did contribute to the Sox in the PO's and that is enough. He contributed on offense much longer than just the playoffs. JBJ showed major strides towards finding the consistency us Sox fans have been dreaming of for years. We could see a major uptick from JBJ, if he just continues what he did over the last 4.5 months of the year. JBJ's last 102 games (May 20th on): 393 PAs .260 BA .333 OBP .460 SLG .793 OPS 11 HRs 50 RBI/58 Runs Over his last 81 games (303 PAs) .273 10 44 (prorated to 20 HRs and 88 RBIs) .834 OPS Maybe JBJ has finally found the groove he needs to stay in. I don't have other comments, thinking what the players do is already the best we can expect from them. I just would want these players to maintain a good workout plan and stay in shape for the upcoming season. I remember last year, after just about every Sox player, except Vazquez declined from their 2016 numbers, several posters said somethings like this, "Maybe, our players just aren't all that good and these numbers reflect who they really are." We had young players on the upside of their age curve declining, and as I and others expected, they returned to their expected upswing. Will that continue? Will their be a "correction" based on the notion that many over performed this year? My guess is that not very one of our younger players will get even better next year, but overall (combined), I think they will. Plus, we are no longer counting on these players that were/are past their primes: 34 HRam 34 Pedey 35 Pearce 36 Kinsler 37 Phillips Our oldest returning (under team control) everyday players are: 32 Moreland (a platoon 1Bman) 31 Nunez (a utility player, but may get over 550 PAs next year) 30 JD Martinez 30 B Holt None of these guys are past prime. On the pitching side, our oldest returnees are: 33 Wright 32 Price 30 Brasier 29 Porcello 29 Sale 29 Velazquez 29 Hembree 29 Workman 29 Thornburg 29 Walden I'm pretty optimistic going into this winter.

You're right. "Demand" was not a term I should have used.

All these guys were projected by MLBTR to get 2 year deals, that's why I listed them. Coday Allen does project to less than half Kimbrel's cost ($8M per to $17.5M per). I could see us signing Morton, Allen and Pearce to two year deals and a reset of the tax for the 2021 season.

N'Western might give ND a run for their money.

If we are looking to reset after 2020 (more likely) what about these 2 year players? $16M Morton or $12 M Gio Gonzalez? Plus... $8M Cody Allen and $5M Jesse Chavez?

If we are looking to reset the tax after 2019 (doubtful IMO), then how about signing 3-4 of these projected one year players? $10M Dozier $8M Herrera $8M Sabathia (another lefty?) $6M E Santana Maybe Harvey, Ryu or Cody Allen would take a 1 year deal to try and reset their value.

The pitcher performance levels between Leon and Swihart and Vaz and Swihart are frighteningly significant in almost all cases involving our starters. Those who want to dump Leon and make Swihart the back-up should be prepared to defend that choice by showing his offense projects to make up the difference. The differentials between Leon and Vaz are less significant, but with Sale one could argue, it's worth keeping Leon just as Sale's personal caddy alone. Career ERA for Sale with.... Leon 2.42 (319 IP) Vaz 3.40 (53 IP) Swihart (Zero IP with Blake) Price did well with Vaz this post season, but here are the career numbers: 2.83 w Leon (194 IP) 4.32 w Vaz (263 IP) 5.73 w Swihart (11) Porcello: 4.14 w Leon (483) 4.15 w Vaz (134) 4.59 w Swihart (118) ERod 4.00 Leon (99) 4.08 Swihart (71) 4.24 Vaz (276) Wright 3.35 Vaz (97) 4.06 Swihart (71) 5.59 Leon (56) I guess one could argue Swihart would be okay with ERod and Wright and maybe Porcello as well, so if used correctly, he would not hurt the staff that much, but if you take away Leon from these trends, you should expect significant declines from Sale and Price, even if only Vaz catches them.

I agree, and when I mentioned the word "demand," it was in the context of what I would be okay with and not what I thought was going on. In Sale's case, I'd be okay with him demanding that Swihart never catch him to start a game. I probably would not be okay with him saying he demands Leon over Vaz, unless he has a very good reason.

Not only are owners making huge money off baseball, the value of their teams, when they go to sell them, are extremely higher than when they bought them. That gives them the sense that they can spend to win. Then, you might have some owners who don't care if their team loses money, they just want the status as a winning owner in the sports world.

I might try... $15M Eovaldi $10M Ottavino and hope we can squeeze Pearce in. or... $11M Familia $8M Cody Allen $7M Kikuchi Save $4M for in-season acquisition(s)

For argument's sake, let's assume the Sox have $30M to spend this winter and the 2019 season, and every FA would agree to sign with us at the amount MLBTR projects. Who would you sign? SP: $21.5M x 6 Corbin $20.5M x 4 Keuchel $16M x 3 JA Happ $16M x 2 Morton $15M x 4 Eovaldi $12M x 2 G Gonzalez $11M x 3 Ryu $11M x 2 A Sanchez $11m x 2 M Harvey $11M x 2 T Cahill $8M x 2 L Lynn $8M x 1 Sabathia $7.5M x 2 D Holland $7M x 6 Yusei Kikuchi $6M x 2 B Norris $6M x 2 W Miley $6M x 1 E Santana $6M x 1 Pomeranz $5M x 2 G Richards RP: $17.5M x 4 Kimbrel $11M x 3 J Familia $11M x 3 Z Britton $11M x 3 Robertson $10M x 3 Ottavino $9M x 9 A Miller $9M x 3 J Kelly $9M x 2 J Soria $8M x 2 C Allen $8M x 1 Herrera $6M x 2 B Brach $5M x 2 J Chavez 1B/3B (move to 1B or move Devers to 1B) $20M x 1 Donaldson $9M x 4 Marwin Gonzalez $8M x 2 Moustakas $?? x ?? S Pearce (not listed on MLBTR's top 50 list) C $16M x 4 Y Grandal $12M x 3 W Ramos $4M x 2 M Maldonado $4M x 2 K Suzuki 2B $10M x 2 D Murphy $10M x 1 Dozier $9M x 2 DJ Mahieu