moonslav59

Hicks is owed $24M/2 and the tax nhit is $10.2M x 2. $24M-$14M= $10M we save and CIN pays.

The QO on Gallen is just one thing. He turns 31 and does not seem to be aging well. He has 3 straight ERA+ decline seasons: 158>126>115>89. His K rate dropped from 9.8 career up to 2025 to 8.2. He will probably get a 3+ year deal, unless he tries to reset. Gio would be okay on a 2 year deal, but he seemed hurt at the end of 2025. I'd pass. I'm thinking we need a big splash deal not a ripple in still water, when there is no pebble thrown- no wind to blow...

Anyone remember softlaw calling posters "Theo apologists" and "pink hat fans?"

Yes. I do not think he's worth more than last winter, except for maybe a 5% inflation add. I'm not sure what other $25M players we might sign, and all look to get 4,5 or more years. Suarez will get less years and maybe $21-23M AAV. Some players make around that via trade. Bassitt will take a 1-2 year deal, but is he what we need? Maybe getting him allows us to safely trade Crawford, Sandoval or Harrison with an OF'er to get a major Inf bat, but I'm not so sure. I'd rather have Bregman than Valdez. I doubt Ranger Suarez fits the Brez profile. I think I'd rather have Bregman at 4-5 years than Bichette at 6-7 years. Who else is there? Please don't say Gallen or Gio.

Texas teacher retirement has not been upgraded since 2002. There is no cost of living adjustments, One reason it is so cheap to live here is the low gov't spending, no income tax, & pretty low property taxes. The 8.5% sales tax hurts and is a regressive tax, but the Cost of Living is very low here. I'm a bigtime saver and miser, so we have a hefty IRA and investment portfolio. We could retire, now, but there is so much unknown about the economy, inflation and medical coverage, that we want to wait 1-2 more school years.

Here is a BTV approved trade that sends $6$M of value to CIN and just $47M to BOS, but I'd do it: To CIN: 46 Duran, 22 Crawford, 1 Hamilton & -18 Hicks +$14M cash. To BOS: 31 Lodolo & 16 McLain AAV balance: $4.6 Lodolo +$2M McLain = $6.6M to BOS $7.8 Duran+ $2.7 Crawford + $1M DHam + 3.5M Hicks balanced with cash= $15M. The Sox gain about $8M on the tax line and can maybe afford Breggie or Suarez.

Apparently, we are about $24M from the second tax line. My guess is any contract given to Breggie would include so much deferred money that it would come down to $23M or so. Another way to make it happen would be to trade some salary away for a lesser salary return. Duran is mentioned a lot, and he is due $7.75M. Lodolo is estimated at $4.55M. (-$3.2M) Gore ~$5M (-$2.75M) Ryan ~$6.1M (-$1.65M) We could add $2.7M by including Crawford. We could try to dump a small fraction of Hicks or Masa's contracts. Sandoval is at $8.5M AAV. More doubtful would be trading Rafaela (adjusted to $7.5M) or Campbell (adjusted to $8.5M.)

I shouldn't have to say it. If we had a dollar for every comment that misrepresents stating facts as apologizing or defending, we could have afforded Soto and Tucker.

We'd also have Oviedo, Crawford, Houck, Bennett and Holobetz in the 2027 mix. I doubt SFG says yes, too.

He has spent recently. He has a long history of splurging, including from the Devers extension to today, as well as pull-backs on spending, sometimes right after a ring season. Yes, the pull back after 2018 was longer than any other, and his aversion to any FA large and long deals is reaching a record length, but his extension lengths and numbers have soared. To say he's "cheap" and "isn't spending a lot" is the weak argument, here. The whole revenue number vs spending number argument has meaning and merit, but is that ratio much different from what it was in 2004, 2007, 2013 and even 2018? My guess is it is not much different. The difference is that a handful of other teams have switched into overdrive on spending AND we've made some poor choices on the moderate & major FA spending we have made, When you actually look at our largest FA contracts since JD and Nate, an argument can easily be made that more spending is NOT the answer. We suck at it! Okay, blame JH for hiring Bloom & to a lesser extent Brez, but other than the 3-4 year lul in spending, JH has spent and spent a lot. We are 8th, now, and that still includes wasted money on Yoshida and Hicks- both with 2 years left. The no long term deal mandate has handcuffed our GMs, for sure, and that is on JH, but even that area has seen a major change since 2019-2023. While we haven't seen a Story or Masa type signing since Masa, we have seen much higher AAVs given out, even when factoring inflation. Again, this is not "apologizing" for JH. It's just stating facts. I, too wish, he'd allow more spending and longer deals, but I do shudder at the though of another Masa or even Story. Even the Sale extension sucked. Yes, what happened in 2003 and 2004 matters little, now, but let's look at this 6 year period spoken about: 2019: The Sale and Nate extensions kicked in and Betts & Bogey made $32M in arbs, combined. Porcello was on his last year at over $21M. We failed to bring back Kimbrel & Kelly and basically did nothing in FA signings, except re-signing Pearce and accepting the Nunez option. We spent $6.3M on FAs. NEW FA money. (We lost a lot of contracts over these years- far more than we added.) 2020: about $10M (6 Martin Perez, 2.9 Peraza & 1.5 Lucroy) 2021: about $25M total (10 Richards, 6 Kike, 5 Martin II, 3 Renfroe) We also traded for Ottavino's $8M deal. 2022: about $47M total (22 Story, 7 Wacha, 6 Paxton, 5 Hill, 4 Diekman & 3 Strahm) We also brought Kike back with an extension at $7M x 2 and traded for JBJ's contract. A measurable uptick in spending began. 2023: $61M (18 x 5 Masa, 16 x 2 Jansen, 10 Kluber, 9 x 2 Martin, 7 Duvall) plus the Kike $10M x 1 extension and $3M Mondesi deal, (This started the 2 year deals & was the last longterm FA deal given.) Two years in a row with a long term deal signed and further uptick in new spending. 2024: $23M (18M x 2 Giolito, 5 x 2 Hendriks) plus 6 in the O'Neill trade. The $31M x 10 Devers extension began. There was a big drop in FA signings, but the Devers extension kept the spending close to 2023 and still more than 2022. There was a clear leveling off of spending from '22-'24 after the horrific "new" spending record from 2019-2021. Now, look at 2025 and 2026: 2025: $83M total (40 Bregman, 21 Buehler, 11 Chapman, 9 x 2 Sandoval, 2 Wilson) plus $9M x 6 years and $6M x 8 extensions for Bello & Rafaela. That's almost $100M of new spending. Is that a Sox record? (Yes, we then dumped the Devers deal, so go ahead and subtract $30M, and it's still $70M- still way more than the '22-24 era.) 2026: Zero on FAs, so far. Contracts via trade or extensions given: 28.3 x 6 Crochet 21.3 x Contreras 21.0 x 1 w option Sonny Gray 16.3 Anthony 13.3 Chapman w option 10.2 x 2 Hicks 7.5 x 8 Campbell That's over $115M spent on trades and extensions, not counting the $20M STL is paying for Gray. Go ahead and say we've made mistakes in spending and trades, but can we stop saying we aren't spending money? Of course, net new spending needs to be offset by lost contracts, and we've lost some big ones, most without replacing or coming close to replacing in kind. The fact that our two biggest FA deals given from 2020 to 2025 we largely busts (Masa & Story) hurt like hell, as they were our largest efforts at replacing lost talent.. Had both done very well, we'd probably still have missed the playoffs in '22, '23 and '24, so it wasn't enough- agreed. Let's look at opening day budgets since JH took over. We saw a +$27M from 2003 to 2004 and a ring. Then, 2 years of cuts. $23M more for 2007 and a ring. Then, 2 years of cuts. $47M more for 2010 and about the same for 2011 and 2012. We saw a cut for 2013 by over $20M, but won a ring. No increase in 2014. The 5 year era of glory spending began in 2015: 184>197>197>234>236. This was the actual era posters long for, as the era from 2003 to 2014 was up and down spending. The period you speak of was 6-10 years ago, not 15-20 years ago. The 2020 COVID season as a disaster of horrific proportions. 2021 was $56M behind 2019's opening day budget! That was a deep hole dug, so increases after that must be taken in that context. 2022 saw $26M added ($30M end of year) but that is not restoring the $56M lost. 2023 saw a drop of $25M and that was unacceptable. JH deserved the abuse. 2024 saw another $10M cut, after the "full throttle comment" fans became justifiably irate. Before inflation, this opening day budget was $65M less than 2019. there is no comparison to the cuts made in the early 2000's. No sugar coating. No JH apologies, here. 2025 saw a $24M increase. Kind of a drop in the bucket. We started the season at $195M and ended at $204, but the tax line was $249M, which is more than 2018 and 2019. Those are facts not apologies. Spotrac says we are aat $235M, now, which is about the same as 2018 and 2019, without adjustments for inflation. We are one big signing away from being very similar to the "glory era" level of spending. We are spending and spending a lot.

If money and years is what limits us to 20% on Bregman, why wouldn't Suarez be a 25% chance? He will get less AAV and less years- maybe even a 2 year deal. I agree our chances on Bichette are very low, but he does fit the age range for longer term offers.

Back to Bregman: his much better season in 2025 seems to help his case for a larger or longer deal, but he is a year older and did play just 118 games, so I wonder what GMs think he's a better option, now than he was last winter. Of course, needs change. Budgets change. Inflation and the upcoming new CBA loom. I'm not sure anyone is offering the reported DET deal from last winter ($172/6) or the Sox $120M/3 deal with opt-outs and deferrals that brought the AAV down to $32M a year. My guess is something in between might be the winning deal. Maybe $29M-30M x 5? Maybe $33-34M x 4- perhaps with an optout after 2 or 3 years, not one? Maybe the same $40M x 3 deal? Certainly, the Sox are a way better team with Bregman than without him, and by himself, he does not make us a better team than 2025's team, but maybe Contreras, Gray, Oviedo and returning injured players make up for the losses of several key players like Devers, Refsnyder, Lowe, Gio, Wilson, Bernardino and a few other role players. A few losses, like Buehler, D May and no 2025 Houck starts can give us more room to improve upon. Regardless, it is highly likely our season will come down to good health and progressions from our many younger players.s

The school I taught at with 50% black and 50% Hispanic, the vast majority of Hispanics were from El Salvador, and many had little to know schooling history. Needless to say, it was a difficult job, although the parents were very supportive. We have a lot of students from Venezuela, Columbia, Guatemala and even Cuba. There are other schools that have higher Mexican and Honduras populations as many populations live in enclaves. For a while, we had over a dozen students from one specific area of Turkey. Two of the students were from the same neighborhood and school, but their parents did not know each other. Both chose the same place to live, independently. We've seen our immigrant population drop in the last year or so, and it looks like some major cuts are coming to the ESL program, due to FED funding cuts and less legal and illegal immigration. I'm not sure my job is safe, and since I'm close to retiring, I'm not really wanting to start all over at a different school. Such is life. Adaption never ends, no matter how old you get.

The AAA roster may look like this: C: Delay- Rosario/Lira 1B: Casas (Hickey) 2B: T Gray 3B: Romero SS: Sogard LF: Campbell CF: Ward RF: Eaton DH: Hickey (Capra) SP: Harrison, Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin RP: Kelly, Mullins, Harris, Song, Samaniego, Gamboa The SP'ers in A+/AA impress the hell out of me: Valera, Witherspoon, Bennett, Holobetz, Phillips, Eyanson, Rogers, Wehunt, Rivera, Dean, Tygart, Neely, Ingrassia, Futrell

Maybe I get surprised, but I doubt we sign Bregman or Bichette, so I only see one FA that seems good enough and maybe cheap enough to get: E Suarez. That keeps Mayer and Romy at 2B. Maybe trade for a SP'er or find a way to dump Yoshida and save $4-6M a year to help pay for the tax Suarez caused JH to pay.

We'd never have paid him what he got. The whole argument is that JH will not spend, so how would this happen? Just sign Suarez and trade and OF+ Crawford for a much better SP, and let the season begin with us as a top 5-6 MLB team on paper.

Cool. I'm at a school that is about 35% Asian (mostly from India, Pakistan, Afghanistan & Vietnam,) 25% White, 25% Black and 15% Hispanic (hardly any from Mexico.) The district is among the most diverse in the world: 28% Black 27% Asian 27% Hispanic 15% White (Not all our schools are diverse, though.)

BTV accepts: Tolle, Campbell ($8M AAV), Bello ($13M AAV), Yoshida ($18M AAV)+ $18M= ($9M AAV) for Logan Webb ($23.3 AAV) & Trevor McDonald We save about $6M. Sign E Suarez to $66M/3 ($22M AAV) which puts us about $12M over the tax line and $8M below the second line. SP: Crochet, Webb, Gray, Sandoval, Oviedo (Crawford/Harrison/EarlY) RP: CHapman, Whitlock, Slaten, McDonald, Weissert, Watson, Hicks, Moran/Kelly 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B/C 3. L Duran DH 4. R Suarez 3B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer/ R Romy 2B 8. R Narvaez C/ L Casas DH 9. R Rafaela CF

Has JH spent or not? It's not apologizing for him to point that out. I'm not speaking for Joe, but I have pointed out many times, I wish and think he should and could spend more. I do know he spent way more than previous owners.

"Free Agent Apologist" or did you mean JH apologist?

LOL

Great story. As a kid, my family was the only white kids in an inner city Milwaukee school. Later we were in a Catholic school and were the only students not wearing uniforms, due to being too poor to buy them. One of my first teaching positions was at a school that was 50% black and 50% hispanic. There was one white student in the school and only 4 white teachers out of 75. Life stories help build who we are.

Is this the year, Romero makes a move? https://news.soxprospects.com/2026/01/following-2025-success-mikey-romero.html

For what it's worth, here is how fangraph's projects Sox pitchers, if pro-rated to 180 IP: 5.6 Crochet 3.9 Gray 3.3 Early 2.8 Sandoval 2.8 Tolle 2.6 Oviedo 2.2 Crawford 2.2 Bello 2.0 Harrison If these numbers are close to accurate as projections for full seasons, we have some SP'ers other team would very much want in trade. (I'm sure other teams have some lower IP guys who would see similar boosts, but I'm not sure how many MLB teams have 9 SP'ers at 2.0 or more. How about batters at 650 PAs? 3.1 Anthony 3.1 Narvaez 3.0 Rafaela 2.7 Abreu 2.3 Duran 2.1 Contreras & Mayer 2.0 Romy 1.9 Story & Casas 1.7 Campbell 1.3 Yoshida 1.0 Wong & Sogard

I'm pretty sure we all are. 2021 and 2025 offered brief glimpses of hope, but I see 2026 as a chance to open the window wide. We don't need to mortgage the future or spend like the Mets and Dodgers to do it, either. We probably don't even have to spend like the Phillies, Yanks and Jays. Going up to the second line and one more trade could get us to a top 5-6 team in MLB. Hell, fangraphs has us projected at a .531 winning %, which is 7th best and just .002 from NYY and .004 from the Jays and M's atop the AL. Fangraphs has us ranked 9th at 42.9 fWAR. That's 0.2 from PHI & BAL and a tie for 7th place. We are currently 21st for everyday players and 2nd for pitching. Add a big bat or two good ones and we should be fine.