moonslav59

I'd rather the Yanks get Machado than Harper. Mostly, I'm thinking how much sweeter it is going to be to beat the Yankees' asses again and again!

I'd rather the Yanks get Machado than Harper. ostly, I'm thinking how much sweeter it is going to be to beat the Yankees' asses again and again!

M e r r y C h r i s t m a s !

That's what I was thinking, but the part about waiting for the Yanks to counter is likely correct.

know projecting future performance levels is not an exact science, in fact it is far from one. That being said, age progression and regression charts are usually a pretty accurate, although individual players have ups and downs on either side of the prime year peak on the chart. 2017 saw a lot of down years with players on the upside of prime. 2018 may have seen some players exceeding what was expected, but when players are on the upside, it's hard to know how much better they can still be, or if their biggest year came before the normal prime peak year. It's pretty much agreed that most players start declining at age 30, and just about everyone declines by age 33. Here's a good article... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/ Note: the article shows how differing skills peak at different ages. Let's say 29 is prime. Some think 27-28 is prime, but I'm going with 29. Here's a look at our key players and their position on the age curve chart. My list is in order of how I view their importance to our team in 2019: Red= Post Prime Blue= Barely Post Prime 26 Betts 31 JDM 29 Sale 26 Bogey 33 Price 24 Beni 30 Porcello 28 JBJ 28 Eovaldi 25 ERod 22 Devers 28 Vazquez 28 Barnes 31 Brasier 33 Moreland 35 Pearce 31 Nunez 29 Leon 29 Hembree 30 B Holt 34 Wright 28 Johnson 30 Thornburg 30 Workman 30 Velazquez 35 Pedey 26 Swihart As you can see, 10 of our top 13 players are approaching or in prime, and only 1 (Price) is significantly past prime. Even Price is just 33, and he's not 36-42 like some key starters on other teams. Our oldest players are all under 36. 33 Price 33 Moreland 35 Pearce 34 Wright 35 Pedey

We could win 100 games in 2019 and still be as good, if not better than 2018- with KImbrel or without Kimbrel. I agree that DD is not finished, but I think he'll get one RP'er by trade and then try to find a cheap RP'er through free agency (maybe Cody Allen?).

Through free agency, you do. Familia got $30M/3. To me, that's a boatload for a good (not great) closer.

I'm almost certain it will be Swihart. If we trade Vaz or Leon, I think the other will catch way more than Swihart, so our offense from the catcher position will never be something we can expect much of.

Comp picks are not what they used to be for several reasons: 1) It's harder to get them.We used to get 2 for some players. 2) They are later in the order than before. 3) Now that slot money is in place, you no longer have difficult-to-sign draftees falling to the lower first round/comp pick areas. Just look at the difference in our comp picks over the years and note the change: 2005: Ellsbury & Lowrie (for OCab) Hansen & Bowden (DLowe) Buccholz & Egan (Pedro) 2006: Bard & K Johnson (J Damon) C. Clay (Mueller) 2007: NHagadone (Alex Gonzo) RDent (Foulke) 2008: BPrice (Gagne) SFife (H Morris) 2009: none 2010: KVitek &ARanaudo (BWagner) BBrentz & B Workman (JBay) 2011: MBarnes & HOwens (VMart) BSwihart & JBJ (ABeltre) 2012: Brian Johnson & P Light (Papelbon) 2013: none 2014: MKopech (Ellsbury) 2015: none 2016: none 2017: none 2018: none Look at some of the players we got through comp picks. Look ar some of the players we got by trading some of these comp picks. Look how few we've gotten in the last few years (1 in the last 6 years). Now, factor in international bonus money restrictions, and low draft picks due to winning plus drops in slots due to luxury tax penalties. Building a good farm will not be easy under these circumstances. One could argue it might be close to impossible.

The best we can expect from Buch is 2-3 months of an uindetermined performance level.

Me, too. They could hit 50 points lower than 2018, and I'd be fine. I just mentioned them as a possibility of picking up some slack we may see from someone else declining.

I was going by the baseball reference page, but you are right. Still, our pitching staff amazingly has no pitchers over 34, and no major ones over 33. My overall point is that one cannot look at the 2018 Sox moving to the 2019 Sox as a team that should decline due to age. We have more key players on the upswing towards prime or in the middle of their prime that those that are post prime. Plus, the one that are post prime aren't 36-42 years old.

If Henry is fine with spending way more than any other team for 2-4 years straight, then I'm all for it. I get how winning now makes sense as our window is closing quickly, but if fiscal responsibility is a priority, then I'd choose to keep Bogey, Betts or others over having Kimbrel for 4 years post prime.

Of course Ottavino is a much bigger gamble than Kimbrel, but the cost and length of contract would lessen future problems, while arguably, we'll still be a favorite in 2019 without Kimbrel.

Well said. I will say that last winter, we were pretty confident about Pom, though.

MLBTR... Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel was reportedly seeking a $100MM-plus contract as of earlier this month, though it’s “believed” he has dropped his price, Heyman writes. According to Heyman, the 30-year-old Kimbrel has gone down to $86MM – the same value of the five-year deal the Yankees gave Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Chapman’s contract remains the richest ever for a reliever, and given Kimbrel’s production to date, it’s unsurprising he’s aiming to match or exceed it. Also unsurprising: Kimbrel’s price is still too rich for the Red Sox’s blood, Heyman hears, suggesting they may be willing to go to four years and $60MM to $70MM.

I think between Ottavino, Brasier, Thornburg and Barnes, one can do well enough to keep us as the faves. I know it's a gamble, but signing Kimbrel is a big gamble, too.

Charlie Morton signs with the Rays. $15M x 2 years 3rd year option is set at... $15M with 0-30 days on the DL $10M with 31-90 days $5M with 91-150 days $3M with 151-200 days $1M for more than 200 days

There is no indication that FA salaries are declining. RP'er salaries appear to be still on the rise. If you look at what the best closers are getting these days, one should expect Kimbrel will make at least $17-18M x more than 4 years. To me, the minimum he might see is $17M x 4, which is close to your number, but even that is too much for the Sox, who have too many better and younger players reaching free agency soon. We need the money for them NOT Kimbrel. IMO, Kimbrel's biggest problem is not his inconsistent 2018, it is the fact that the Yanks and Dodgers both have an expensive closer.

I remember when I was discussing how many of our up and coming young stars had a setback in 2017, some suggested that maybe these players just weren't as good as we thought they were, and their early career success might have been outlier seasons. Maybe 2018 put that argument to rest, but I'm sure some people (especially non Sox fans) might think 2018 was a peak year for many of our players, and a regression should be expected. While that certainly could happen, if you look at the the ages of our key players, I'm thinking there's an equally good chance we see continued improvement. (Listed in orderof most PAs in 2018) Beni had more PAs than anyone else this year, and he's just 23. I could see him going over a .900 OPS in 2019. He was at .830 this year. JD Martinez is 30, so one could expect regression from his 1.031 OPS in 2018. Still, it wouldn't surprise me, if he does as well or better. Betts is just 25. He should give us 80-100 more PAs this year and repeat his 1.078 OPS or do even better. (I'm not betting he will, but at his age, he could.) Bogey could give us 80 more PAs, too. He took a big step up at age 25, as one might expect, but there's a good chance he does the same or better in 2019. JBJ, at age 28, finally seemed to find the consistency we've been looking for from him in years. He started very slowly, but he ended up with over 4 months of steady hitting capped off by playoff heroics that will never be forgotten. He's heading towards post prime years, but he's still young enough for a solid season. Nunez needs to get healthy. He hit .677 this year, and one could expect better, if he is healthy. Devers is just 22. The sky seems to be the limit for him. I'm hopeful he busts out this year, but certainly he could struggle again, this year. Moreland/Pearce platoon gives us great hope for a significant improvement. While both are over 32, we will have Pearce all year and no HRam. Holt is 30. I doubt we can expect a .774 OPS and over 360 PAs, but if Pedey returns, we may not need it. Vaz & Leon both hit about 100 points below their career OPS. Both are still under 30, so we can hope they return to norms in 2019. Our oldest pitcher is Wright at 33. Price is 32, and Brasier is 30. That's a very prime year staff.

Best case scenario: 1) No major injuries and few minor ones. 2) We acquire a solid closer, and the rest of the pen does well- maybe Thornburg comes through. 3) Porcello & Price pitch close to 200 IP. Sale and ERod pitch near 180 IP. 4) Eovaldi gives us a big boost by replacing Pom's innings and giving us over 170 IP, instead if the 54 he gave us in 2018 (plus Pom's 74 IP). 5) Devers give us 100-150 more PAs, and his OPS is more like .831 not 2018's .731. 6) Pearce goes from 165 PAs to over 300, and Moreland doesn't hit a mid season wall like he has the last 2 seasons. 7) Nunez plays more like 2017 than 2018, and/or Holt continues like 2018. (Or, Pedey returns near old form.) 8) Vaz and Leon return to their career norm OPS and not repeat 2018's numbers: Vaz: .540 in 2018 (.632 career/.735 in 2017) Leon: .511 in 2018 (.626 career/ .845 in 2016) A hundred point gain here might absorb any drop-offs elsewhere. 9) Replace HRam's 195 PAs (.708), Kinsler's 143 (.604) & Phillips' 27 (.520) with much better production from Pearce, Pedey, Holt & Nunez. 10) More innings from Brasier, Thornbueg, Wright, Workman and Poyner give us a boost and not a let down.

That would put us way over the $40M penalty line (for the second year in a row). Also, if you look at what some RP'ers have signed for, so far, I doubt Kimbrel ends up with just $60M/4. $30M/3 Familia $25M/2 Miller $25M/3 J Kelly $15M/2 J Soria $8M/2 Jesse Chavez I think Kimbrel gets at least $74M/4 or $85M/5. (I would not even pay $64M/4 for any closer in MLB right now.)

The best we can probably expect is a Doug Fister type.

Of course RD may fizzle, and he may not even stick at 3B, but the kid has done very well while playing against players much older than him. I may just be a homer, but I'm expecting great things from Devers. I was never on Middy's bandwagon and must have suggested dozens of trades over a year and a half or so.

Come on, harmony. You know my point wasn't about putting Devers on the shelf for 3 years. Choosing Middy as a comp was a bad choice. The only thing they have in common is the team they played for and more Ks than wanted. Yes, there is still a lot to be discovered with Devers, but the at his age, one can expect improvement.