moonslav59

To me, the issue isn;t the 4th or 5th year, it's the cost against this year's and next year's luxury tax budget and our desire to reset after 2019 or possibly 2020. Any big deal that goes 2-3 years will greatly affect future choices. By year 5, we will have reset already and will likely be over again.

I didn't go all "hype and hope". You only want us to look at Sev's first 4 months, neglect Paxton's failure to ever give over 165 IP and expect Happ and CC to not decline due to their ages. You want hype and hope? Here is some... While several Yankee pitchers have difficulty going 170+ IP, Porcello never goes below 170. He's gone 8 straight over 172 and 4 out of 5 over 191. He's won a Cy Young, and while nobody here is projecting another year like 2016, at age 30 I'm thinking he has a better chance at doing well than not doing well. His WHIP has been under 1.18 in 2 of his last 3 years, and he just put up his best K/9 rate of his career. Price did more than just pitch a couple great games in the playoffs. Although 33 is post prime, he's not 36 or 39 like Happ and CC will be. His 2018 WHIP was below his career number. He missed time, but still pitched more than Paxton ever has. ERod has nasty stuff. His injury kept him from putting up some great numbers. The team went 19-4 in his 23 starts. Call me rosy, but this kid will turn 26 and can even get better. His K rate has improved 3 straight years, and his BB rate has declined 3 straight. HR/9 & WHIP also getting steadily better. Id it "rosy" to expect just the same from ERod but with 6-7 more starts? Eovaldi is a tough one to project. He's had 2 major surgeries and using his career numbers to try to project anything is difficult. Wer all know he has nasty stuff, and it's all about his health and durability. If he becomes our closer in the playoffs, it might be a great thing... again. Chris Sale's only issue is health and endurance. Nobody can question his greatness, but we showed we can win without him the second half of 2018. Stephen Wright was pitching like our ace in 2016, and he had a 12-5 record with a 2.67 ERA in late July, He has a career 3.77 ERA. He offers some hope, if someone gets hurt or we move Eovaldi to closer. Johnson and Velazquez seem to be capable 7 and 8 starters. That's the plus side of our starters, but to me, it doesn't seem like "hype".

JA Happ is now 36. He had a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts with Toronto last year before going to NY and doing very well there in 11 starts- the same amount Eovaldi had with the Sox. True, Happ had very good seasons in 2016 and 2017, despite a high WHIP in '17. We hear talk of Eovaldi never giving a lot of IP'd over his career, but Happ has only gone over 178 once (2016). He's getting older- ERod is getting closer to prime. I get how one could accuse a Sox fan of being rosy on Eovaldi, but let's wait and see. Sabathia will turn 39 in July. If he were on the Sox, Yanks fans would be calling us rosy for expecting much from him. Paxton is in his prime but surprisingly has never pitched more than 161 IP. Now, he'll be in a hitter's park. Let's see.

Slav, you seem to forget how good Severino was for 4 months of the year. You sometimes seem to pick and choose what counts more. I could argue Stephen Wright was very good for 4 months in 2017, but I don't. You criticized Sale for looking questionable at the end of 2019, but brush away Severino's massive decline last year. I can understand putting Sev ahead of Price, but it is no where near a certainty for 2019 performance projections. You're big on pitcher's losing velocity, like it's a death toll, but then say Happ found some added velocity. No way, Happ will be better than Price and maybe Porcello (who is hard to project). It's hard to know how Paxton will do with the Yanks, but he certainly can be very good, but so can Price and Porcello, who have already shown they can pitch wee enough to win a Cy Young award. Try not to just look at the best time periods of your guys and the worst of ours. We should only look at Sevs first 4 months and Sanchez's 2017 numbers, but cannot do the same with Sox players. Why not look at JA Happ's numbers with TOR? You discount Eovaldi's numbers with us late in the year but act like Happ is some kind of sure thing stud. Our rotations were pretty close last year, and you guys added Paxton. 2018 Yanks IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP 191 Severino 3.39/1.145 156 Tanaka 3.75/1.128 153 Sabathia 3.65/1.314 113 S Gray 5.26/1.496 68 German 6.19/1.346 64 JA Happ 2.69/1.052 47 L Lynn 4.60/1.362 27 Montgomery, 18 Loaisioa, 18 Cessa, 5 Adams, 1 Holder. It looks like Paxton will take the innings from Lynn and the also rans plus some from German and Gray. That looks like a big plus, but I'm expecting CC to come back to earth, Happ to pitch more like is old self than his 11 starts with the Yanks, and questions linger about Sev & Tanaka. Assuming everyone is healthy, the Yanks rotation should be a little better in 2019 thanks to Paxton. The Sox are expected to replace some horrendous numbers with much better performance. Expecting all are healthy, like I did with the Yanks, we look at the 2018 numbers: 191 Porcello 4.28/1.176 176 D Price 3.58/1.142 (It wasn't just 2 playoff starts!) 158 C Sale 2.11/0.861 123 E Rod 3.79/1.273 61 Johnson 4.15/1.451 51 Pomeranz 6.31/1.812 50 N Eovaldo 3.22/1.272 (Not just a great P.O.) 30 Velazquez 4.15/1.582 24 S Wright 4.13/1.292 4 Beeks, 2 Cuevas. We look to see Sale get 40+ more IP, ERod 30+, Price 20+ and Eovaldi taking most of Pomeranz, Jolhnson, Velazquez and Wright's IP'd. I see much more upside with our 2018 to 2019 comp, and I'm counting on nothing from Wright, who pitched like our ace for half of 2017.

Slav, you seem to forget how good Severino was for 4 months of the year. You sometimes seem to pick and choose what counts more. I could argue Stephen Wright was very good for 4 months in 2017, but I don't. You criticized Sale for looking questionable at the end of 2019, but brush away Severino's massive decline last year. I can understand putting Sev ahead of Price, but it is no where near a certainty for 2019 performance projections. You're big on pitcher's losing velocity, like it's a death toll, but then say Happ found some added velocity. No way, Happ will be better than Price and maybe Porcello (who is hard to project). It's hard to know how Paxton will do with the Yanks, but he certainly can be very good, but so can Price and Porcello, who have already shown they can pitch wee enough to win a Cy Young award. Try not to just look at the best time periods of your guys and the worst of ours. We should only look at Sevs first 4 months and Sanchez's 2017 numbers, but cannot do the same with Sox players. Why not look at JA Happ's numbers with TOR? You discount Eovaldi's numbers with us late in the year but act like Happ is some kind of sure thing stud. Our rotations were pretty close last year, and you guys added Paxton. 2018 Yanks IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP 191 Severino 3.39/1.145 156 Tanaka 3.75/1.128 153 Sabathia 3.65/1.314 113 S Gray 5.26/1.496 68 German 6.19/1.346 64 JA Happ 2.69/1.052 47 L Lynn 4.60/1.362 27 Montgomery, 18 Loaisioa, 18 Cessa, 5 Adams, 1 Holder. It looks like Paxton will take the innings from Lynn and the also rans plus some from German and Gray. That looks like a big plus, but I'm expecting CC to come back to earth, Happ to pitch more like is old self than his 11 starts with the Yanks, and questions linger about Sev & Tanaka. Assuming everyone is healthy, the Yanks rotation should be a little better in 2019 thanks to Paxton. The Sox are expected to replace some horrendous numbers with much better performance. Expecting all are healthy, like I did with the Yanks, we look at the 2018 numbers: 191 Porcello 4.28/1.176 176 D Price 3.58/1.142 (It wasn't just 2 playoff starts!) 158 C Sale 2.11/0.861 123 E Rod 3.79/1.273 61 Johnson 4.15/1.451 51 Pomeranz 6.31/1.812 50 N Eovaldo 3.22/1.272 (Not just a great P.O.) 30 Velazquez 4.15/1.582 24 S Wright 4.13/1.292 4 Beeks, 2 Cuevas. We look to see Sale get 40+ more IP, ERod 30+, Price 20+ and Eovaldi taking most of Pomeranz, Jolhnson, Velazquez and Wright's IP'd. I see much more upside with our 2018 to 2019 comp, and I'm counting on nothing from Wright, who pitched like our ace for half of 2017.

Hard to say. It will likely go 1-3 years beyond his last arb year. It's going to add to our luxury tax line now and for the next 2-3 years but will likely save later. Maybe a comp is with the Longoria deal.

No way we get both. I'm doubtful we get one.

Maybe we get one from Hernandez, Groome, Shawaryb, Mata or Houck.

No, but word is out he's looking to extend someone, and the guess was Beni.

With Kimbrel, yes. Without, we lose 2 of the big 3 for sure: Sale, Bogey or Porcello. Remember, we lose Pablo's $19M, Pearce/Moreland's $13M, and Nunez/Holt/Thornburg's $10M+.

Just wish away Tanaka's injury? Severino's issues? Neglect the 4-5 starters, where we blow yours away? Talk about rosey glasses!

Show me how you rank the non pen players.

When did I ever come close to saying the Yanks won't be better than 2018 by adding Machado?

When has the pen become more important than the rotation? Here's how I rank the rivals' starters: 1. Sale 2. Price 3. Severino 4. Paxton 5. Porcello 6. Tanaka 7. Eovaldi 8. ERod 9. Happ 10. Sabathia Best Hitters 1. Betts 2. JD (Machado) 3. Judge 4. Stanton 5. Bogey 6. Beni 7. Hicks 8. Devers 9. Sanchez 10. Andujar 11. Pearce/Moreland 12. Didi (half year) 13. Torres 14. JBJ 15. Pedey/Nunez/Holt 16. Gardner 17. Voit/Byrd 18. Vaz/Leon Defense: Advantage Sox Base running: Advantage S0x

It will be close.

We didn't have Eovaldi, Brasier and Pearce all year- now we do. Shouldn't that offset some of the loss? Most of our key players are on the upswing in terms of age curve production and prime years. (Less post prime in key roles than your Yanks.) We heard how sucky our pen was all last year, and we won anyways. We won, despite CK's horrible playoff numbers. Injuries could play a big role, but we basically won without Sale (our best starter) who was MIA the whole second half of 2018. Wright, Pedey & Thornburg missed about the whole year. Many other players missed time or played hurt a lot (Devers, Betts, Bogey, Nunez, Vaz, and ERod). I think we'll be faves, even after you guys add Machado.

So, if Byrd ends up as the starting 1Bman, you'll be all set? Your pen is better than ours, and that's all you want to talk about-- like it means everything.

If we truly want to reset after 2019 or less likely after 2020, signing CK really hurts the rebuilding process, unless his deal is structured to make him tradeable after 2019, as in bid salary in 2019, then drops off quickly..

You won't win the division with Tulo at SS, 2 thirty-five plus year old starters, a catcher who could care less about catching and Voit at 1B.

He pitched 6 or more innings in 7 of 10 starts with the Rays. When he joined the Sox, DD and Cora apparently planned on using Eovaldi as a RP'er i& SP'er n the playoffs. The yanked him early in a few games he wasn't doing badly in. He never let up more than 6 runs in any Sox start, and he only allowed 4-5 runs scored in 3 of his 11 starts. I think he will be fine giving us 6 IP more times than not, unless we choose to use him in relief again. That could happen, if Wright, Johnson of Velazquez prove they can do well as a starter.

Getting CK would put the Yanks in a better position for 2020, 2021, 2022 and maybe 2023, if CK signs for 5 years. I'll take Allen and Brach or both. Maybe one and trade for another. It's not as good as getting CK or Ottavino, but it's still good enough to keep us the faves, while helping our longer term outlook enormously.

As it looks now, yes, Velazquez will likely start in AAA due to option issues with others in our pen, but my guess is he gets more IP this year than last.

It also helps to have 5 solid starters that rarely need bailing out early in games. ERod is the one starter who rates to tax the pen. Johnson, Wright and Velazquez could offer 2 inning stints often enough to lessen the strain on the 7th, 8th and 9th inning guys.

You are assuming the Sox are offering large and long. Have we even made an offer? I see it like this: if nobody offers more than the minimum the Sox are willing to offer CK, then he probably signs with us. He may even agree to a 1 year mega deal to try and reset his value, but that would be highly risky.

Nobody is claiming the Sox pen is great or even very good. While Barnes did have some career numbers in 2019, he was pretty good before that. You seem to expect Barnes will come back to his norm, does that mean Hembree will, too? Last year saw his worst ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 in 3 years. Brasier is largely an unknown, but his velocity does not lie, and you seem to value velocity very highly when talking about Yankee pitchers. Thornburg, Velazquez, Workman, Poyner, Johnson, Wright, Lakins and maybe others all offer long shot hope, but with so many of them,expecting 1 or 2 to do better than expected is not illogical. DD is not done with the pen. He will add someone better than Workman & Velazquez. Besides, the pen is not the be all end all, despite recent trends by teams to build the strongest pens possible. The pendulum may be swinging back as RP salaries sky-rocket. We have a solid rotation. We have a solid, if not the best, offense. We have a solid defense. We run the bases very well. Our pen is not great, at this moment, but it still is not near the worst, is probably above average and has upside potential. We don't need to the best at everything, and we seem to do very well vs the best closers in MLB. Brasier, Barnes and Hembree had an ERA of under 1.00 in the post season last year. 22 IP 2 ER 10 H I know the sample size is small, but there is reason to be hopeful, especially after we add a piece or two.