moonslav59

Inside Edge gives these numbers. If you look at percentage of plays made by degree of difficulty, it should factor out the number of chances one CF'er gets vs the other: 2017-2019 1-10% Diffuclty 26% JBJ (27 total plays) 23% KK (17) 10-40% (14) 73% KK (11) 40-60% 62% KK (13) 50% JBJ (10) 60-90% 96% JBJ (29) 95% KK (19) 90-100% 100% JBJ (551) 99.5% KK (438)

I agree. His defense does not sustain a .450 OPS. Even .550 is too low. .650 might be the tipping point, but I wouldn't argue against .675 all that much.

1. Elite does not mean nobody else is as good as you. 2. Why bring up "elite" defense and then show WAR numbers that include offense? I'd be fine with replacing JBJ and Leon with equal defenders who can hit better. Tell me how we do that while staying under the max spending limit or by not opening a massive hole somewhere else by trading for such a player. (Note: I would never and have never argued JBJ is the best defensive CF'er in MLB. I have said he's the best defensive SOX CF'er I have ever seen. That's much different.) Why must you continuously argue against positions nobody is taking?

Not the PC answer, but I'd give both nuts to the latter.

I'd say pitching + defense has to equal 50%, just as hitting + base running should equal 50%. I'd say ... Pitching 40% Defense 10% Hitting 46% Base Running 4% Great defense can change an average pitcher to a good one, a good one to a great one, and a bad one to a decent one, especially at the catcher, SS, 2B and CF positions. Off the top of my head, I'd rank defensive positions as such: 22% Catcher 22% SS 14% 2B 14% CF 8% 3B 7% RF (maybe more in Fenway) 6% LF 6% 1B 1% P

We do have 40, now, with the additions of Weber, Curletta, Josh Smith and the re-addition of Leon. Who would be the first to go, if we added another player or when Wright comes off his suspension? 1. Shepherd 2. an out-of-options player due to the 25 man roster squeeze created by Chavis' excellent start? (Nunez, Pearce, Thornburg?) 3. Curletta 4. Weber 5. Josh A Smith 6. Josh Taylor 7. Brewer 8. Travis 9. Wright If you count Thornburg, I count about 10 guys we could DFA, and I wouldn't complain at all.

Very true. The difference is, I would not argue JBJ is close to Ellsbury, if you took away his hottest streak(s). My point was that JBJ is about as good as Ellsbury, if you take away Jacboy's freak season, and Some strongly disagree with that position. That's fine with me, but nobody is saying JBJ is an elite offensive player or HOF candidate. We are not acting or implying he is even close to that. I responded to the points that JBJ had no upside, despite finishing last year with 120 straight games of about the most consistent hitting we've ever seen from him. I responded to the point that those 120 games and the 900+ PAs from his 2015-2016 seasons can hardly be called "lucky streaks." They were both way too long to be lucky. They both prove he has "possible" upside, because he's already shown he can do it- twice for long stretches and several more times for 3-5 week torrid stretches here and there. I'm fine with anyone thinking Ellsbury is better than JBJ, but I responded to the statement that he was twice as good as JBJ. He was and is not. Yes, I cherry-picked stats to make my points, but how else can you respond to a statement that his hot streaks were all lucky? I had to show some evidence that 120 games and another of 900+ PAs show it's more than luck and it may be repeatable at age 29.

Hopefully just a blip on a long stretch of good playing. I had hoped our offense was going to keep doing well, but we're bound to have a bad day here and there. Weber looked good.

Single and HBP with 2 outs in the 6th.

Probably right, but just think about how many people would give their left nut to get the chance he got...

...and one would expect a better WAR when you factor in Ellsbury had about 600 more PAs with the Sox than JBJ has right now. That's 23% more than JBJ has.

His "lucky streak" last year was 106 games long. His lucky streak from 2015-2016 was over 900 PAs long. Look, I never said I expect JBJ to hit that well again, but to think that saying he has "no upside", when he has already shown he can have extended productive offensive streaks, some how "pleases yourself", then maybe I'm missing something. Go ahead an count 5 weeks as a season--twice. Go ahead on keep expecting JBJ to never do okay or better on offense ever again. You might end up being right, but 29 is not over the hill, and if you count the 14 playoff games with the last 106 games of the regular season as a "lucky streak", then so be it. When you're 28 you can do those things, but now that he's 29, he's toast. I'm choosing to think (or hope) that if he can hit over .790 for his previous 120 games before the start of this season, maybe he can hit over .750 the last 125+ games this year-- just a few months removed from that pro-longed "lucky streak". Last 120 games of 2018, including the playoffs: 443 PAs/390 ABs 99 H 43 BB 31 2B 4 3B 14 HR 60 rbi 64 R 3 SF .254 BA .323 OBP .461 SLG .784 OPS .784 way way way back so long ago!

He had a big part, too. "Big" does not mean there can only be one very important player that helps a team win a championship. I'm not sure what your getting at. Is it that because Pearce (and Price and Eovaldi and...) had a big role, somehow JBJ's is less important? (BTW, I wasn't the one who brought up the playoffs.)

They should have traded him that night.

We don't even have 40 players on the roster, so it matters not

Will you stop with the 7 years crap? You are counting this year and his first year as 2 years. Pablo has absolutely nothing to do with JBJ. Nobody is looking at just the good parts of his career. We all know he has had some horrible cold steaks that are way too often prolonged.

Josh A Smith vs John Means 1. Betts RF 2. Bogey SS 3. JD LF 4. Chavis 2B 5. Devers DH 6. Vazquez C 7. Pearce 1B 8. Nunez 3B 9. JBJ CF GO SOX! (My first game thread. I'll catch up near the end of the game.)

We thought we had the killer B's.

Must have to only remember the importance of the .200 BA.

Did you watch the playoffs? JBJ was a huge part of us winning a ring... HUGE! He had 10 rbi in the ALCS + WS (10 games), but it really sucked he hit about .200 in the playoffs. That's all that count.

So, no chance for JBJ to improve, even though he's proven his bashers wrong almost every year after a cold streak?

Short memories. The guy also hit .793 from May 19th to the end of the regular season- perhaps his longest consistent streak of his career, but we are now supposed to believe he has no upside, and this (2019) is who he will be for the remainder.

The guy already hit over .830 for a 2 year stretch of over 900 PAs. I'd say he still has potential to hit in the high .700's again. He also hit .793 in his last 106 games last year. To pretend this is the JBJ we will be stuck with, and that he has no more upside, is not what I call being realistic. Can JBJ end up near .550 to .600 this year? Of course, he can, but my guess is he ends up over .700 again, which would mean he's have to hit hith .790s the rest of the year, and that would make him a plus going forward. I could be wrong, but I'm not writing him off, yet.

You are counting 2019 as one of JBJ's 7 seasons, when he's actually played 5 seasons. Ellsbury played 6 seasons with the Sox, if you discount the first season. Yes, a 21.1 WAR is 6 seasons is better than a 12.3 in 5 seasons, but it is not double. It's about a 7 to 5 ratio not 10:5. When you factor in all his missed time and unreliability, I still think they are closer than you do. I was glad we let Ellsbury go, and at the time, I said I wouldn't have paid him even half what the Yanks did.

And, when Ellsbury was on the bench, how much WAR was that worth? My point was that if you take away Ellsbury's big year, they were close to even. I still think that, WAR not withstanding.