moonslav59

Yes. I have no problem admitting I was terribly wrong. Thinking we "may get better" is not the same as saying it will be a "cakewalk." Other teams got much better over the winter and at this past deadline.

If we sign all our arb players, we'll be at about $220-225M next year. That's already $12-17M over the luxury tax line. "They will have money" assumes Henry will want to spend this winter after refusing to spend even $3-4M this past deadline. I'm hoping we reset the tax this winter, but I would not bet on it. I would bet we don't go over the max line, so the idea of "money to spend" might mean only $3-8M, if we plan to stay under the second penalty line. That's WAY less than we spent on Eovaldi & Pearce last winter. Maybe Henry okays going $37M over the tax line, again. That would bring us just under the max line and give us $23-28M to spend. That might be enough to keep us highly competitive for one more year, but we'd further weaken our draft pick status & pool money while risking 1-2 more mistake FA signings that will further cripple any future chances at resetting the tax while rebuilding the farm. Does anybody really think we can keep winning by just spending $39M over the tax line year after year without ever infusing the roster with top young talent from the farm? Can someone tell me how we can rebuild our farm by drafting 24th to 30th every year (assuming no more 10 pick penalties) and having a severely restricted bonus spending pool for international free agent signings. Look at our roster now: how many of our best players were drafted or signed as international FAs? Yes, we may get lucky by drafting another Mookie Betts in later rounds, but I'd hate to pin all our future hopes on that happening again.

Yes, we all knew our pen was not strong, and Price and Sale were question marks. We expected some decline from Betts & JD but hoped upticks from Devers, Vaz, Bogey & Beni might make up for it, which they did. I certainly expected way better than this, but I knew the Yanks and Astros would get better, and it was not going to be a cakewalk. My hope was we make the playoffs and our strong playoff record and experience would take over.

The alternative is to deny the inevitable and further the weakening of our farm by continuing restricting international pool money and draft pick penalties. We can't continually spend our way out of every mess and build the farm at the same time.[/b BTW, I mentioned I think we "should" reset and that we "likely will not." We'll probably put it off until 2021 and trade Betts next deadline or let him walk. To me, I'd rather reset in 2020 and try to keep Betts. The fans would be more pissed, if we waited until 2021. I just can't see Henry thinking a reset is not ever going to be needed. If he wouldn't spend at the deadline, why would we think he'd be willing to spend this winter? It would take significant spending to get us back to the top. Massive taxes. Massive penalties that restrict building up the farm. I knew this day was coming and hoped it wouldn't come until 2021 or 2022, but it is here now. Trying to keep this group all together for one more last hurrah only worsens the extended future. (BTW, I don't see us finishing worse than 3rd next year under my suggested plan.)

2020 Tax Salary Budget: $Millions 31.0 Price 25.6 Sale 22.0 JD (assuming option) 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 13.8 Pedey 4.5 Vaz Total:$134M (7 players) Arbs: (est) 27 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs) 10 JBJ (4 of 4) 9 ERod (3 of 4) 4 Beni (1 of 3) 3 Workman (3 of 3) 3 Barnes (2 of 3) 2 Hembree (2 of 3) 1 Wright (3 of 3) 1 Hernandez (1 of 3) Total $60M (9 players) Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster) Total: $11M 40 man roster with no FA signings: $205M +$15M player benefits= $220M The limit is $208M, next year, so to reset, we'll need to trade about $12M in salary and sign no free agents. For argument's sake, let's say we trade JBJ & Hembree and "save" about $12M. This is what we'd have left for 2020: 25 man roster SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi, DHern, RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Wright C: Vazquez, Centeno 1B: Dalbec 2B: Chavis, Hernandez SS: Bogaerts, Lin or Chatham 3B: Devers LF: Travis (or JD) CF: Benintendi RF: Betts DH: JD Martinez (or Chavis/Dalbec) The rest of the 40 man roster: Pedroia IL Lin or Chatham (1 on 25 man) Reyes Lakins Poyner Weber Shawaryn J Smith Curletta Kelley Ockimey Feltman Houck Duran A Rei T Ward

I doubt DD is the "right guy" to rebuild. His MO is spend & trade for a "win now" philosophy. He is not very good at drafting or acquiring top young talent in other ways. If the plan is to reset in 2020, like I think we should but likely will not, then I would not have DD at the helm.

If we trade JBJ, Hembree and one other small contract, we can reset by signing nobody. We could also reset by trading JD or Eovaldi while paying part of their contract. After the reset, and maybe a couple decent draft picks by not winning this year and next, we can right the ship by making no mistakes in 2020-2021 FA signings (assuming we go $20-39M over the cap).

Devers, Bogey, Vaz and Marco took steps forward.

That is a position I still hold, and time will prove the correctness of that statement.

Those "headlights" were pretty bright!

Those "headlights" were pretty bright!

Kimbrel just went on the IL.

2019: 3.27 (3 gs- 11 ip) 2018: 4.15 (13 gs- 60.2 ip) 2018-2019: 4.04

Brian Johnson's last starts going back to 2018 (in reverse order: latest listed first) IP ER 2019 3.0 3 5.0 0 3.0 1 2018 3.0 2 1.1 4 4.1 1 4.1 3 5.2 3 7.0 5 5.0 4 5.2 0 5.0 0 4.2 2 4.2 2 4.0 1 Granted, many starts were 3 or less innings, and only 6 went past 4.2 IP, but he only allowed more than 3 ERs in 3 of his last 15 starts. I'm not sure any Sox starter has done that besides maybe ERod. Ryan Weber's last starts: 2019 1.1 2 4.0 7 6.0 1 AAA 6.0 0 4.0 0 7.0 1 5.0 2 5.0 2 6.0 1 3.0 4 1.1 6 3.2 4 6.1 3 6.0 3 5.0 2 4.0 2

With all due respect, why is a pitcher's last outing so important to you?

1) The post was not about trading Barnes. 2) Barnes had 3 good to very good seasons before this one. 3) Trading a player when his stock is down is usually not a good idea. 4) I'm hopeful Barnes will be good going forward, and this "bad year" may lower his arb cost.

LOL. More like extending the agony by giving some false hopes.

Whoop dee freakin' doo. We won a game!

There are countless choices that would have been just as bad or almost as bad as Eovaldi & Pearce.

I'd also start stretching out Eovaldi and DHern.

Weber is our ace, and Barnes should be demoted. This site is getting loopy.

I said stretch DHern out to starter this year. Johnson & Velazquez looked good last year and bad this year. I'd like to see more before I pull the plug. It's not like there's some hot prospect they are blocking. I'm not expecting Johnson or Velazquez to show a higher ceiling, but one could be our 5th starter next year. DHern will get as many innings as he needs under my plan.

My plan for 2019. Place Price and Sale on the 60 day IL. It may help them be stronger next year. Stretch Eovaldi & DHern out to become starters by September. We'll need them as starters in 2020. See what Marco (2B), Chavis (1B), Travis (1B/OF/DH), Johnson & Velazquez (SP) and Lakins, Taylor, Walden, Poyner and others can show us over the next 8 weeks. It may help us plan for 2020 a little better.

Kimbrel to the IL.

The Cashner trade proved we didn't have to trade a top prospect to get a decent pitcher. DD chose to send a message to the team. It didn't work. The Eovaldi & Pearce re-signings killed us due to their injuries. DD's earlier big signings appear to be fading or mildly declining (Price, Sale, JD & Moreland). I'm glad we won a ring, so I'm fine with what DD did, but I will not sugar coat the mess the "win now" strategy has put us in now and going forward.