moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Nope. We'll win 60%+ in April.
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So, CC may be back by the end of April and Sev sometime in May. Better not fall too far behind like in 2018.
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He's got a long way to go on defense, no doubt. He showed growth his last year in the minors and quite a bit of growth in 2018. Nobody knows, if that will continue going forward, but he's young enough to think there's still time for significant growth. Devers did struggle at the plate for much of 2018, and he missed some time with injuries, but at his age, that is expected. He has over 1 XBH for every 10 ABs over his short MLB career. That makes up for some of the low OBP, but I'm expecting improvement as he plays at age 22. Bogey hit .684 at age 20 and .660 at age 21 before jumping to .776 at age 22. Betts jumped from .812 and .820 to .897 at age 23. Jackie Bradley Jr was in single A at age 21 and was promoted to AA during his age 22 season. He's got the skills and the instincts to be a great hitter. This could be the year, but it may take longer. To me, it's more about when than if.
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In terms of age, that's a good start at an age of 22-25, so I'd say it is at least very good to do it at ages 20-21. Not many are even in the bigs at that age, and many are barely in AAA by then.
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or Cora's.
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What would a Betts extension be?
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He played way more 1B than Papi did. The year before he signed his big deal, he played 75 games at 1B and 86 at DH. Papi never did that with the Sox. The most he played at 1B with the Sox was way back in 2003 (45 games). -
It was obvious Cora liked Vaz and Leon more than Swihart last year. What has really changed?
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His numbers at ages 20-21 are very good to excellent. 672 ABs .254 31 96 I'm pumped up on this kid!
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I give up.
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We must be watching different games, because I have watched every pitch of every Sox game for years and years.
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LOL. Most of the numbers I use are old school. I don't consider OPS as all that "modern." I do like UZR/150 quite a bit, though, just because Fld% and range factor are so severely flawed.
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This will help a tiny bit... The maximum number of mound visits per game will be reduced from six to five. Commercial breaks between innings are reduced to two minutes in length for all games.
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Nobody claimed Nunez was a better defender than LeMahieu. In fact, my original post on the issue clearly states Nunez is not a good defender, but is better than Devers, who we all agree has been pretty bad. Your WAR numbers include a big defensive boost from his 2B defense.
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For what it is worth, I don't value Steamer projections.
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Maybe the bottom 4 or 8 should pick in reverse order.
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He sucks at 2B, but when healthy, he's not really bad at 3B, at least over the last 3 years. He's not someone I'd want as my FT 3B, and neither is LeMahieu. I have faith in Devers. My hope is he can become close to average on defense within a year or two. If he hits like I think he will, I'm fine with a slight negative defense, but moving him to 1B may still end up being what is best. He's still young enough to improve. I think he's got quick reflexes, which helps at 3B. His range is already +3.7 on fangraphs, but he makes bad throws too often. That's something that is easier to correct than range, where you either have it or you don't. We'll know more after this year. We'll also know more about Dalbec & Chavis.
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Well, it seems like a lot over a point nobody made.
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I see two recent posts that bring defense into your argument. The one you are thinking of. The one where you mention WAR and Gold Gloves (not at 3B, I might add).
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I went out of my way to say Nunez was not a good defender. I'm not sure why you keep going on like we have. Nunez is an upgrade over Devers- not the extent LeMahieu is over Andujar, but nevertheless, he is. Nunez mighty be a better hitter with the Sox than LeMahieu is with the Yanks based on the COL spilts and hiow well Nunez hits in Fenway. BTW, LeMahieu has just 245 innings at 3B with a 0.0 UZR/150. Inside Edge has him as making zero "unlikely, remote or impossible" plays at 3B. Nunez had 365 innings at 3B just last year (+6.9 UZR/150), but to be fair, he's been a -5.5 over his career in over 2,000 innings at 3B. He has been a net plus 2.6 since 2016 (1460 innings). He has made 17% of the unlikely plays over his career.
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I agree. Those changes would be very radical and would change the history of the game. For stat geeks, we'd demand an asterisk for the "post rule change" era.
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I do think the fact that Swihart has not caught even one batter with Sale speaks volumes. I'm not saying he can't gain comfort with Vaz or Swihart. I'm just saying I wouldn't mess with something that has worked fine. Out of 372.1 IP with the Sox, Leon has caught 319.1 of them. That's 86%. One could argue Vaz's 53 IP (14%) is not a large enough sample size to know anything, and I can understand that. That is why I am not projecting the past numbers to continue. I don't think projecting something like a 0.50 differential next year is out of line or absurd. One could argue I was being generous to Vaz. They didn't yank Vaz when Sale came in that WS game in relief. (Note: I'm not using numbers to try and show or prove my position is right but to support it. There are other points, like Cora and past managers choosing to go with personal caddies with the best starters. It's a long tradition in MLB. Also, there's a long tradition of changing caddies, when necessary.)
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This is something that has been going on in baseball and with the Sox for decades. I'm sure catchers understand it better than anyone esle, except for maybe the pitchers. We won last year, despite all the discord or "friction" it caused. Also, I'm not aware Price has said anything. In fact, Vaz caught Price more than Leon in his time here and in 2018. 2018 394 PAs with Vaz (not counting the playoffs) 2.37 ERA (5.87 OPS against) 328 with Leon 4.68 ERA (.780 OPS against) Career 1113 with Vaz 4.32/.735 769 with Leon 2.83/.636 I don't think Cora minds who catches Price. I'm not sure Price does either. I do, but with with Price, it's not as "slam dunk" as Sale.
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His lack of steady playing time is the major part of him having higher upside and not really anything he has done over his major or minor league career, except for a brief time in AA way back in 2014. I'm not sure where the "metrics" is coming from. How much better a few pitchers do with Leon has nothing to do with metrics, in fact, it has more to do with things that metrics don't capture... something I'm not usually associated with by some here. I totally respect your opinion and others who disagree with me on this one. You're one of the best posters on this site. Keeping Swihart has several advantages, and I realize I may be putting too much weight on the catcher-pitcher dynamic. Sale, Porcello & Price are not going to suck without Leon. I just hope the learning curve does not take too long or causes Vaz to burn out by having to catch too much.
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Maybe playing in Colorado helped just a tiny bit... Career .835 Home .673 Away .835 Colorado .667 Yankee Stadium (Note: I never said Nunez was better and even pointed out his defense was not good- just that it was better than Devers.)
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I'm against outlawing the shift. They used it vs Ted Williams.
