moonslav59

Next few games: LAD ERod LAD Sale LAD Price TOR Porcello TOR Velazquez (Johnson?) TOR ERod TOR Sale @BAL Price @BAL Porcello @BAL Velazquez/Johnson @TBR ERod @TBR Sale @TBR Price NYY Porcello NYY Johnson/Velazquez NYY ERod NYY Sale (Day off) TBR Price +1 day rest TBR Porcello +1 TBR (Trade acquisition? Johnson/Velazquez) @NYY ERod +1 @NYY Sale +1 / @NYY Johnson/Velazquez (Dblhdr) @NYY Price +1 (or, we could pitch Price in the 2nd game of the doubleheader and go with Porcello in game 4 of the series- depends if we pick up a SP'er.)

1. Although I often post most recent numbers to show possible trends, I've never believed future performance is locked into what a player has done over his last 3-5 games or even a half season. 2. There is ample evidence our starters are among the best in the league, unless you only look at 2019 or their last 3-5 starts. Even Porcello had a 3.50 ERA for 12 starts before this tiny sample size meltdown of late. 3. I have confidence that 3 of the big 4 will do fine the rest of the way. I'm hopeful we can get a decent 5th starter without emptying the farm and we will have home field for the WC game.

Yes, hence the impending steep, rocky drop-off. Some here are acting like the cliff is now.

I don't recall Jacko saying the contract was an overpay at the time of the signing. Many felt he'd get 6-7 years and $30-35M a year.

3 Free agents. Nothing from the system in sight.

We'll see. I think there will be a few good pitchers that are traded for much less than people think.

Our best prospects are 2-4 years away.

Many felt the years and dollars were lower than expected to begin with, so I doubt a ho-hum 18 game start to 2019 cuts his value by 67%.

Hell, put Chavis out there when Moreland comes back. Even letting Nunez stand out there like a statue would be worth adding Syndegaard.

Our pen has trickled down!

Weber 7 IP 1 ER 1 H 3 BB 3 K Lakins 0 IP 3 ER Kelley 2 IP 1 ER (BS) Castillo 2-4 w 9th HR (.738 OPS) Travis 2-4 w 6th HR Duran & Chatham 0-4 Dalbec 1-2 BB Kent 7 IP 1 ER Brannen 2-5 Casas 1-4 w 3 rbi Granberg 2-5 Machamer 4 IP 0 ER Haworth 4 IP 1 ER

0-4 with a K. Hopefully, he gets into April form soon.

Exactly. There may only be a handful of teams that might trade for Porcello, assuming he regains form in his next 2-3 starts.

YES! And, people point to game times this year as not being higher than last year's, but we haven't hit September, yet, and this year's average will spike above last year's.

It's obvious, but that doesn't take away from the fact that our expensive and highly regarded starters have under performed, so far. I expect the starters will be fine going forward, even without Eovaldi joining the rotation. Our pen needs the most help, and Eovaldi is not going to be enough, even if he does great.

Yes, and our SP'ing has way under performed.

It does happen, but I agree, we won't get much of anything for Porcello, even if he has 3 good games before the deadline.

While the 4 guys I mentioned are getting paid more than Chapman, Miller, Beltran, McCann & Nova were, I think you are undervaluing their stock.

You really think Sale's stock has slipped that much? Have you seen what some pitchers with bigger health issues and spottier skill sets have been getting? You think Sale would only get $9M a year as a FA, right now? I'm hoping that was just hyperbole.

I'm not for a fire sale, at least right now, but in theory, we could trade JD, Sale, JBJ and Betts, if we know we are not going to outbid everyone for him after 2020. We could get a lot for that 2 or 3 from that group and still have a pretty decent core of players- some young and cheap to build around and try to get back to competitiveness after one reset year and maybe even a year where we get a top 10 draft pick by sucking in 2020.

Many seasons can be viewed in hindsight like you are looking now. Heck, some fans thought we had little chance last year, even after our great start and record breaking win season. I think this team is too good pack it all in, and trading everyone would not get us under the tax for this year, so you're talking about at least 1.5 years of giving up. To me, we could trade Porcello and Moreland and barely notice. We won't get squat for them, so I'm not sure how that helps us going forward. I guess we might get lucky with a prospect we get back, but I wouldn't count on it. If we look lethargic in late July, I'd think about trading JD, JBJ and maybe Sale, but I seriously doubt we look crappy in 3 weeks.

If we are going to have a fire sale, it would be with 2021 and beyond in mind. It would be to allow us to reset the tax this winter and the 2020 season and try to be back in the ring hunt mode by 2021. Why would we trade ERod, who is making half our bid 3 starters' salaries? He's under team control through 2021. We would trade all the free-agents-to be for nothing, if we could save money or get a single A prospect. That's Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, and Holt. (Some are untradable.) The next guys we look at would be the ones that are FAs after 2020: JBJ, Wright & Workman... Betts (doubt we trade Mookie). Next, we may look to trade JD, Price or Sale, if we need to deal one to reset the tax, but all 3 could be hear until 2022 (Sale 2023), so they might be ones we keep for the next push. We'd keep Beni, Devers, Vaz and Chavis as long term, lower cost players for 2021 and beyond. I doubt we'd even consider trading ERod or Beni. I'm not on board with the fire sale idea, but that could change in a couple weeks. I think this team is too good to punt mid season. We've already spent way over the tax limit and have a team very close to the 2018 one that blew our minds. It's too good a team to blow up right now. It is showing signs of decline, but I'd wait to this winter or the next trade deadline to seriously consider a blow-up plan. This team is NOT the 2019 Celtics. We have no Kyries on this team. Back-to-back, BABY!

They are pretending. By the end of July, they will be selling. If they do buy, it won't be for an expensive rental.

All true, but it's not the only way to be competitive more years than not. The system has made it much harder for big spenders that win more than the lose every year, but spending large will always keep you contending or at least convincing your fans you can win each year. Having at least one "cliff year" is probably the best way to rebuild. Match that year up with a controlled firesale and budget reset, and I think we can get back to or near the top in 1-2 years. The issue, now is that we have a damn good roster right now, and it's hard to choose this summer as the year to sell and next winter as the reset time. My guess is we wait until 2020 and reset for the 2021 season. The next 3 weeks might change my mind to move things up a year. Trading big contracts this summer and winter, resetting in 2020 and then extending Betts for 2021 and beyond might work better.

Who have we signed, and who is the best guy still unsigned?