moonslav59

Sox pitchers have a higher K rate than 2018 (10.0 to 9.6). Their IF fly Balls are up: 9.9% to 11.8% Less hard hit balls: 34.5% to 31.3% Slightly less hit to the center of the field: 34.4%-33.3% On EDGE: Balls with a 40-90% catch expectancy have dropped to CF: 20 to 7. Granted, the season is not over, but the pace is almost half of 2018- giving JBJ less chances to shine.

Better said than I.

Of course it counts, but not with Sale. What's the problem with scheduling Vaz's day off catching when Sale pitches? Vaz cannot and should not catch every game or more than 4 out of 5 games.

The thing is, even with the velo drop, the comps are astoundingly divergent: 2019 Sale with... 3.78 with Leon .616 OPS against 6.68 with Vaz .956 OPS against. I don't care what the reason is; I want Leon catching Sale. Period. Eclamation mark! Vaz could go 4-4 every day, but allowing a .956 OPS agaainst for the opposing 9 batters can never make that up.

They could take one and play them elsewhere (DH, Devers at 1B?)

I totally disagree. Sale has had impeccable "command," except for a few games this year. You don't have the all time best K/BB ratio by not having excellent command. He's led the league in HBP's twice, so he surely "comes in" on batters- often with heat. Maybe Johan Santana, also a lefty, is a better comp. He dealt with an injury, had an off year at age 28 and then 3 excellent seasons afterwards (although he missed a few starts in 2 of those years). He got injured again, later. Another lefty, Cliff Lee, who led the league in K/BB ratio had a two year down stretch at ages 31-32, then bounced back to have 3 great seasons and a decent but shortened 4th season. Maybe another tall lefty might be the best comp of all, and he's not on the list due to not being around for the time period I chose: Randy Johnson. Anyways, I did not create this list to try and fine the closest comp to Sale. I created the list to highlight that the whole idea that pitchers over 30 are all but doomed to decline doesn't seem to apply to the best of the best. Sale has clearly been one of the best. He's started with nastier stuff than many on this list. That should be a plus when looking at his future outlook, yet somehow you hold it against him. He's already shown he has not lost the nastiness; he's just lost the consistency of velocity and location. Despite all that, he still has his best K/9 rate of his career. This is in the midst of "losing it." How many of the starters on my list had their best K rate in their "off year(s)?" Sale is unique. I've shown how the best of the best way more often than not have very good to excellent seasons after a down tick. About a third do even better! I see no reason why we should think Sale will be more like Felix Hernandez, CC, Jake Peavy or Buehrle than the other 12 on the list. I'm not saying I know how he will do going forward. My issue with you is that you seem more certain than I that he will be more like CC than the vast majority of names on the list, not that becoming CC- maybe quicker than 3 down years- is a bad thing.

Funny how the comp you think is best for Sale had the longest down stretch before bouncing back. I'm still not sure why you think the fact that Sale had the nastiest stuff will be a negative going forward. Sale could just as easily be the next Greinke, Verlander, Santana or Halladay. There's no way for us to know. For all we know, Sale might already be "over" his down stretch. Maybe it wasn't even anything but a slump or a mechanical adjustment period. I admit there is a lot of concern. You seem to be pretty sure he's in for a long re-invention period.

The budget is based on the 40, but 15 will be making minor league contracts. We do not need to shed Betts, JBJ & JD to reset. 1 or 2 would do.

Dalbec is better, offensively, than Ockimey. His defense could transfer to 1B, too. We need low cost players who can play 1B. I'd rather go into ST'ing with 3 choices not 2.

Also, if you are going to go with a committee, why not add a few more mediocre arms to the mix at minimal cost?

I doubt Sale worries about Vaz & Leon. Leon just calls a better game and gets the most out of him. Maybe it is psychological. Maybe Leon is his "binky." If that's the case, it would help to "get over it," but since Vaz can't catch every game, I don't see an issue with giving him every 5th game off.

CC was near the bottom of the list of the top 15 starters on my list. Felix Peavy maybe Buehrle before CC. One might think a guy like Buehrle had a better chance of recovering from a bad stretch. Many on the list had nasty stuff before their bad season(s). Some had nasty stuff afterwards- some had to almost completely re-invent themselves (like CC). Just curious, did CC have as nasty stuff as Sale before his decline? Verlander? Halladay? Scherzer? Santana? Greinke? Lee? Oswalt?

Nope. Not a chance. I will admit I was wrong about suggesting we shut Sale down for the year.

What makes you think he can't regain consistent dominance like many of the other greats? Some of them didn't ever have the "wicked stuff" Sale had and still shows he has, at times. Some never threw 98 mph after their down season(s). If you're wondering about the WAR, look it up and get back to me. This might help: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=160&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2003&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=30,58&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate= The pitchers on that list are on that list not because of smoke and mirror stats. The vast majority had multiple great seasons after their bad or down stretch.

Okay, so lets all be honest. Was Moreland really worth the $13M he was paid for his 663 PAs over the past 2 years? (He should end up with over 700 and about a .770 OPS.)

Looked like... Chris Freakin' Sale agan!

So, according to one radar gun, Sale hit 98 today and 95, 96 and 97 a few times. Does this change you outlook? Did other guys on my list NOT have "wicked stuff" before their off year(s) and return to grace? That list showed 4 of the top 6 pitchers on my list that have pitched after age 31 (Kershaw not counted) actually had better numbers after their "off year or two". I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, and we have no reason to be concerned, but certainly there is a significant chance Sale gets back into the same form as before this year. Out of the 18 on my list, Sale & Kershaw have yet to show the results after an off year or two. The leave 16. 5 did better after the off year(s) than before! 1 did about the same (Hamels at 128 for 6 years afterwards) 1 did worse (Felix) The other 8 did not do as well, but they put up these numbers: 144 for 3 years Jon Lester 143 for 3 years J Santana 138 for 3 years Cliff Lee 127 for 2 years Price 126 for 2 years Oswalt 120 for 4 years Lackey 117 for 6 years Buehrle 115 for 3 years Sabathia 109 for 4 years J Peavy 106 for 1 year Haren (could be considered a failure) 14 of the top 15 on this adjusted list (no Kershaw or Sale) had ERA+ of 115+ (most for 3+ years) after their down stretch. 11 of 15 at 126 or more, which is ace material not middle rotation material. Some might have called Lackey's 120 for 4 years as ace material, making it 12 out of 15. Buehrle, Peavy and Sabathia could easily be called solid #2's or 3's.

Dalbec vs LHPs this year: .904 (.794 v RHPs with 14 HRs in just 260 ABs) Total vs RHPs in AA (2018-2019): 20 HRs in 350 ABs. I'd like to see Dalbec, Ockimey and Travis fight for PAs at 1B next year. Chavis could play some 1B, especially if Marco comes through at 2B.

2020 Tax Salary Budget: $Millions 31.0 Price 25.6 Sale 22.0 JD (assuming option) 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 13.8 Pedey 4.5 Vaz Total:$134M (7 players) + $33M for Betts extension= $167M Arbs: (est) 10 JBJ (4 of 4) 9 ERod (3 of 4) 4 Beni (1 of 3) 3 Workman (3 of 3) 3 Barnes (2 of 3) 2 Hembree (2 of 3) 1 Wright (3 of 3) 1 Hernandez (1 of 3) Total $33M (9 players) Non arbs (24 players on 40 man roster) Total: $11M 40 man roster with no FA signings: $211M +$15M player benefits= $226M ($216M without JBJ) How much are you paying Wheeler? What about the pen? How much do we pay for a CF'er? As for a Ockimey-Travis platoon, why not Dalbec?

You don't think we could arb JBJ and trade him without paying any salary?

Are you forgetting the $15+M player benefit payment?

I suggested shutting him and Sale down two days ago.

FSB, your plan puts us way over the max tax line, which will further hamper acquiring top prospects. We will keep digging a deeper hole.

No, just answering a Q.

I have grave concerns, and your points are well taken. I may be more hopeful than some, because I feel Sale has the mental make up to get back to excellence.