moonslav59

...and... He has 54 HRs and 110 XBHs in his last 841 ABs in the minors. That's about 36 HRs and 74 XBHs per 630 ABs.

Maybe he'll have 70 HRs over his 4-5 year utility player career.

I know. It was the same as me saying we won't reset but I think we should.

Well, he is taking the place of the worst pitcher in MLB (Velazquez), so there's that. Pearce moved to the 60 day IL to make room for this stud! DD Da Man!

Maybe had it expired one year earlier, it would have been better, but signing him only to prime years made a lot of sense 4 years back. I loved the deal then, and still think it was worth it, even though this season really dragged the whole total value thing down.

Calling it now. Betts will never be traded. (See how I did that?)

I've already said I DO NOT think we will reset in 2020. I think we should. Big difference. Maybe, I'm just to down about 2019 to think the same team with a couple additions can have a decent chance at 2020. The Astros, Dodgers and Yanks will not be getting any worse, and for them, "getting older" means getting closer to peak prime, unlike most of our players. I've lost faith. That is what is mainly driving my opinion to reset in 2020. There are other reasons. 1) We can get decent draft picks next year and 2021 by not finishing in the top 10-15 for those 2 years. WE HAVE TO START BUILDING UP OUR FARM! We can no longer spend our way to build the farm. The system does not allow it anymore. 2) Resetting the tax after 2019 allows us to spend big in 2021 and the following year or two as well. I know Sale & Price will be a year older, but I'm not counting on Price to give much in 2020, anyways, and Sale is still a big concern. I'm not willing to gamble the extended future on the hopes of Price & Sale leading us to a ring in 2020. (Sure, it could happen, but they could both pitch great, and we'd likely still be the underdogs.) 3) Resetting in 2020 vs 2021 makes it easier to keep Betts, and he and Devers are my main "keepers" out of the core we have now. If we try to reset in 2021 and keep Betts, it's a nightmare trying to get under the tax line. Those are my main reasons for wanting the 2020 reset. I do NOT expect Henry & DD to do what I want. I think they both think we can win it all next year with a couple minor tweaks. I do not.

I guess this crap happens sometimes, and maybe I'm reading too much into this lousy season to the point that I've lost hope for a rebound next year. Look at 2012's rotation: 5.23 Beckett 4.82 Lester 4.86 Doubront 4.56 Buchholz 5.65 Cook/8.28 Dice-K/6.22 DBard We did win the next year, so maybe there is hope. I do think Sale will bounce back, but he is still a big concern. Maybe, I'll feel better, if he finishes this season strong. I do not expect Price to be better than 2019, which isn't all that great to begin with. Porcello's departure should be easy to absorb when looking at what he gave us this year, but the fact is, we still need another solid SP'er. How do we get that? If we spend large on a SP'er, what's left over for the pen, 1B & 2B? (Can we count on Chavis to fill 2B or 1B? His OPS is about .700 since his first 14 games.) ERod is the only guy I have a lot of confidence about. He could get even better by maybe putting up 2018 numbers in 2019 innings or more. Eovaldi is a bigger question mark than any of the rest. I have very little confidence in Johnson, Velazquez, D Hernandez or Houck for the 5th starter slot opened by Porcello's likely departure. Yes, our offense should be fine. It could get even better. Our defense is better than "good enough." I still think Cora is an excellent manager. I'm okay with trying to win it all again in 2020 by spending to just below the max cap, but I think doing so will hurt our extended future, unless we only sign one year contracts with the help we add or add low cost player via trades. I do not want to empty the farm any more than it already is. I'm okay with the Andrew Cashner type prospect deals, but we can't be trading any decent prospect who looks to have a chance to make the bigs in the next 2-3 years. I just don't see how we can do it, unless we go over the max line- triggering another draft penalty or emptying the farm- triggering a longer down period when we finally do decide to rebuild and reset the tax. Going for it all in 2020, to me, seems like it will keep us from getting back to the top in near future years. I'm not sure adding a good starter and acouple good pen arms would be enough to make us a top 4-5 contender next year, and I guess that's what tips the balance, for me. Add to that, trying to reset after 2021, when Betts' deal is up,scares the hell out of me.

Yes, if Price had gone 6 or 7 inning more often, he'd likely have many more 5+ runs allowed starts.

Thanks for pointing out the typo. I corrected it.

I'm still watching every pitch of every game, but I've come close to just shutting off the TV during some of these recent games. I came real close tonight. We suck. There's nothing more to say. The season is over. Oh, and by the way, did I mention we suck?

I thought a week ago, you were saying Weber and DHern needed to pitch more.

Starts with 5 or more runs allowed: Porcello 10 out of 24 (13 out of 24 with 4+) 2018: 6 out of 33 (12 out of 33 with 4+) C Sale: 7 out of 24 (12 out of 24 with 4+) 2018: 1 out of 27 (2 out of 27 with 4+, back-to-back May-June) D Price: 4 out of 21 (7/21 with 4+) 2018: 4 out of 30 (7/30 with 4+) Together, the "big 3" went from 21 out of 90 in 2018 to 28 out of 69! That's from 12% in 2018 to 41% this year. They've let up 4 or more runs 59% of their starts. ERod has let up 5+ in 5 of 23 and 4+ in 10 of 23. Last year, it was 6 out of 23, but no games with 4 runs allowed. I'm too scared to look up our 5th starters' numbers.

Available or possible available OF'ers this coming winter (from Cots): (Red = higher UZR/150 from 2017-2019 with 400+ innings in CF) Outfielders Kole Calhoun * Nicholas Castellanos Lonnie Chisenhall Nelson Cruz Khris Davis Corey Dickerson Jarrod Dyson Adam Eaton Avisail Garcia Brett Gardner Alex Gordon * Billy Hamilton * Jason Heyward * Austin Jackson Jon Jay Matt Kemp Juan Lagares Nick Markakis * Starling Marte Leonys Martin J.D. Martinez * Marcel Ozuna Yasiel Puig Eric Thames* Mark Trumbo They don't list Maybin who has a +0.2 UZR/150 since 2017. (JBJ is 3.0.) They don't have Perer Bourjos (13.7) listed either, and he'll be a FA. Maybe we could trade for Margot (5.4) or Brett Phillips, who was just traded by the Brewers to KC. Wasn't Hamilton cut or demoted? His bat sucks, but how much worse can it be than JBJ's?

I'm not much of an expert on the value of non Sox players. I did want Ottavino last winter, but I also talked up Cody Allen, so there's that.

S5, I loved your response. I do think we reset after 2021 not 2020, but it may be very hard to keep Betts, if we do. I also think the longer we wait to reset, the worse our extended future looks, and the harder and farther away it will be to rebuild the farm. I'm also thinking about the team's play this year. They piss me off, and I'm not having a rosy outlook for 2020, unless we spend big, and I don't like that idea. Much of the spending and the "win now" philosophy has gotten us into this mess. To keep up with that philosophy just gets us further and further into a deeper and deeper hole to have to climb out of at some point. If we reset after 2021, instead of 2020, we might still be okay, but I think the rebuild will take longer and the down time might be worse. At least we'll get better draft picks by sucking more.

Has seen his OPS rise 5 straight years. This year, he may be the only player to have have a season's OPS as high as Ted Williams' career OPS of 1.117 since I don't know when!

If you take away his first 14 games, he's at.... (not counting his 0-3 today) .246 BA .299 OBP .405 SLG .704 OPS We hear a lot about JBJ's offense, and he's at .695 before today's 1 for 1 with a HBP & BB.

Another 5 runs allowed start. Sick.

I believe people sorely underrate the defensive importance of those two guys who run around in CF and RF. I also think the pitching staff would agree with that. While it may be inevitable that we lose one of them, losing both of them would be a comparative disaster. That's why I think he's going to hold on to JBJ until the question of Mookie is settled. I don't look for JBJ to go to arbitration. I believe they'll settle with him before that, if only to see where they stand. -S5Dewey I hope you don't think I am part of a group that minimizes the value of defense, especially up the middle and in Fenway's RF. As you may know, JBJ has been my favorite Sox player since he was called up. I love great defense, but I also recognize there are many excellent defensive CF'ers in MLB these days, and some are less expensive and maybe even more steady on offense. I've also never wavered from my position that we should pay Betts top dollar on a long term contract. One reason for that is his great defense in a park that demands top defense. I'm looking at the budget. I'm looking at JBJ's age and slightly declining defensive skills. I'm looking at his continued offensive peaks and extended valleys. But, mostly I'm looking at his projected arb cost and our frightenly high budget going forward. I think we need to reset within the next 2 years, in order to rebuild more quickly and to promote a better extended future for our budget and competitiveness. I'm thinking JBJ has to go to have any chance at resetting AND at keeping Betts (or replacing Betts with a high-priced FA). I'd love to keep both. Maybe we can not offer JBJ arb, but still sign him (for less). I certainly want to keep Betts and have suggested a 10 year offer, which is probably more than anyone here would give him. I don't see a reset during the winter of 2019-2020. IMO there are only three pieces of the puzzle who are having down years and that's not enough to reset this upcoming winter. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this team is among the leaders in runs scored, we may have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and the left side of the infield is solid both offensively and defensively, as is catching. That's not a team you trash. I don't think we reset this winter either, but I think that's a mistake. I'm not for "trashing" this team. I want to reset, so WE CAN KEEP BETTS. I want to keep the core in place, reset next year, spend big for 2021, including a Betts extension, and with a reset budget, we can spend large for 2-3 more years. With a decent draft pick this year and next, maybe we can build the farm up better than we did when we won the division 3 years in a row and had draft penalties and reduced international pool monies. The problem is the top three in our pitching staff, all of whom are having unexpected down years. A Perfect Storm of pitching, if you will. And yes, we need a closer. Enough of this hogwash of closer by committee and enough of having our best closer pitch earlier in the game (although I was an advocate of it earlier). Brandon Workman is looking pretty darn good to me right now. I'm hopefulm Workman continues pitching well, but he's a FA after next year. It may be hard keeping JBJ, Betts and role guys like Workman. I'm hopeful our starters can rebound next year, but at their ages, I don't think we can count on it. I'm hopeful Barnes rebounds. I'd like to see us extend or re-sign Betts plus sign a top closer for 2021. A one year reset and rebuild might just work. In assessing this team the first thing I look at is what we've got. IMHO the core of this team is solid enough to give them another shot at a ring and it's not unreasonable to think that our top three pitchers can come back stronger. Going with what we've got makes more sense to me than selling off key players thereby making holes at their current position. Regardless of what he chooses to do, DD is gambling. He's either going to gamble that he can adequately fill the positions of the players he trades for pitchers (with no guarantee that the pitchers he gets are going to be a lot better than the ones he's replacing) or he gambles that our Top Three can come back in 2020. To answer your question, I can see the Sox going over the second line and not the max line in 2020. What happens after that will depend on what happens during the 2020 season. I want to keep the core, too, but I want to be good for a long time, and I don't think spending our way out of every problem is a sustainable philosophy. Henry seems to be hinting at that realization recently. I agree that the Sox will go over the second tax line next year but not the max. We will not come close to winning. We will choose to reset after 2020 and lose JBJ and Betts. I don't see how we can get a great closer, keep JBJ and fill some other needs enough to be a top 4 or 5 contender next year. Even a closer this year would not have been enough.

Run Differential Leaders 182 LAD 164 HOU 153 NYY 128 MN 97 TBR 87 OAK 85 CLE 83 Cubs 77 AZ 69 BOS (10th) 62 ATL 45 WSH 33 CIN 14 NYM 12 STL How about the differential between 2018 and 2019 (2019 not over): +165 MN +28 AZ +27 TBR -10 LAD -21 NYY -32 Cubs -50 OAK -70 CLE -106 HOU -191 BOS (List only includes the top 10 in 2019.)

The Astros are 6th in runs scored. Offense 691 NYY 684 BOS 668 MN 636 ATL (no DH) 635 LAD (no DH) 623 HOU 10. OAK at 595 (big park) Pitching & Defense (Runs allowed) 453 LAD (no DH) 455 TBR 455 CLE 459 HOU 485 CIN (no DH) 492 STL (no DH) 501 Cubs (no DH) 506 OAK 12. NYY at 538 24. BOS at 615 Houston's offense ranks higher than the Yanks Pitching/Defense.

Word was that some wanted him last year at $9M, but we did not like what they offered. True, he's a year older and has one less year of control, but I'm still thinking at least 1 GM would take a 1 year risk. I'm not expecting an elite prospect in return, but anything decent might help our farm (or pen).

I think he'll get $10 to 10.5M. I'm beginning to think the non tender choice is more likely than offering arb. (I'm not quite there yet, since teams did ask about JBJ last winter.)

The Yanks can certainly win it all, but I think their over concentration on the pen vs the rotation will bite them in the ass in the playoffs. They have a great offense, when healthy. Their pen looks great and is #1 in pen WAR, but they have some secondary numbers that, while still very good, show that other teams have pens just as goodo r very close. ERA- 68 CLE 82 NYY 84 TBR 85 HOU FIP 3.82 CLE 3.92 SFG 3.99 STL 4.02 SDP 4.40 NYY 4.05 TBR 4.08 OAK 4.09 MN 4.15 BOS 4.25 LAD K/BB 3.4 SD 3.2 CLE 3.0 HOU 2.9 MN 2.9 TBR 2.9 TBR 2.9 NYY 2.7 STL 2.6 BOS