moonslav59

No, you are right, we don't, but we do know hitters age better than pitchers, in general. Betts will likely be an elite defender for many years and still a plus at age 39, unless he destroys a knee or soemthing.

He is better than most 37 year old pitchers. What they got wrong were his first years with them. He really fell off a cliff, right away. He had one decent year, but even .859 was very sub-par, for him. He might be the "worst-case scenario" for any post prime signing, but again, the Angels signed him post-prime (age 32) not during prime. BTW, his 162 game average at ages 38-39 was 28 HRs and 103 RBIs but a .718 OPS.

Of the 18 "Keepers," ERod and Sale will likely start on the 60 Day IL, Beni and Eovaldi are questionable, Barnes & Perez are in their last year of team control, and Munoz, Arroyo and Pivetta are not really anyone to get too excited about. (I'll chalk 2021 up as an outlier for JD.) Vaz has been up and down. Houck started 6 games. Chavis could be mini-Middy. DHern still walks too many batters, and Dalbec's sample size is rather small. Our core of healthy and durable players is rather small. One could view it as only 11 players, 2 of whom are FAs after 2021.: Vaz Bogey Barnes ERod Devers JD DHern Dalbec Perez Verdugo Houck

Once could argue most of the "near expendables" are players that could easily be replaced. They are not likely to be DFA'd, but trading some for prospects or players not 40-man roster required could be options: 11 Near Expendable: Walden Brasier Brewer Taylor Weber Arauz Mazza Plawecki Valdez Covey Grullon Only Plawecki and Taylor have clear roles on the 2021 team, and both could be easily replaced. Add these 11 to the list of "expendables," and you get 22 players that are not really prized in any way. This has to be one of the weakest bottom halves of a 40 man roster of any Sox team in a very long time. Yes, I'm bringing up his name: thanks DD!

One would expect Betts to be better at 37 than a pitcher.

No, I said I'd make it 2 years, and I did. All I said was Betts will be 28 his whole. first year. I did not argue that Price should count as a year older due to 42 days. I'll take 3 prime and 9 post prime over 0 prime and 7 post prime. If you want to break it down further as 26-30 prime, 31-34 post prime and 35+ past post prime, we have this: Price: 0-4-3 Betts: 3-4-5 The real difference in Betts has 3 more prime and 2 more past post prime.

I kinda feel the same. I rarely mention him, until some else does. There are times his supporters bring up his name, first, or they still harp on Ben years after he's gone.

No surprise. I'd like to see Lin accept a minor league deal with us.

If we count age 31 as post prime, all 7 of Price's seasons are post-prime, whereas 3 of Mookie's are in prime, and 9 are post prime.

True, and DD seems to be living in the minds of his biggest supporters as much as his biggest detractors.

Mookie will be 28 his whole first season. Let's say 2 years. That means the team gets 2 more prime years out of Betts and 3 more years on the back end compared to Price. Price will turn 37 his last year. Betts will only have 2 seasons at 37 or older.

Actually, the 2013 "outlier seasons" argument is not really based on fact. Many players had better seasons in 2013 than 2012 and/or 2014, but rarely was 2013 their "career year." Only Nava and Salty-( who just barely and he was benched in the 2013 playoffs.) Only those 2 marginal hitters had their highest career fWAR in 2013. Several had their best from 2012-2014 in 2013: 12-13-14(Career best/yr) 4.3>4.9>3.8 Pedey (6.4 in 2008 and 4.9 in 2016) 2.6>4.7>0.2 Vic (5.6 in 2011) 0.8>4.6>3.6 Ellsbury (9.5 in 2011) 3.1>3.4>2.2 Ortiz (6 seasons better than 3.4) 0.1>3.6>-0.8 S Drew (4.8 in 2010) 0.4>3.4>2.1 Napoli (4.3 in 2011) 2.9>3.1>-2.0 Salty (2.7 in 2011 not better but close) 1.2>2.7>2.3 Nava (2013 clearly his best) (Mike Carp's sample size was small, but 2013 was his best year.) Pitching: Lackey, Doubront, Koji & Buch were better in 2013 than 2012 or 2014, but most had better seasons than 2013 sometime other than 2013. Lester, Tazawa & Wright were better in 2014 Andrew Miller was better in 2012 & 2014. Yes, a lot of luck is involved on when players have better or worse seasons, but clearly DD benefited from many players doing much better in 2016 than 2015. It was more the reason for a vast improvement in record than the additions of Price & Kimbrel. (We can probably guess that Ben would have added salary, too, had he stayed the GM.) Being forced to take Bobby Valantine in 2012 could be part of the reason 2013 was so much better than 2012. DD had total control.

I think Pedey will be off the 40 man at some point this winter. They may find a way to add him for some sort of ceremony, next year, but they will probably want that 40th slot for someone- likely someone not even on our roster, right now. Our roster is so weak, we will likely add some rule 5 and waived players to the point where the bottom 12-15 guys we have now are all gone.

Once JBJ becomes a FA, we'll have 40 on the roster. With 6 Rule 5 players to add and 3-5 free agents, minimum, we may need to clear 9-12 slots. Assuming no trades or additions, which is highly unlikely, here are the certain or near 18 certain keepers: (listed by seniority on 40 man roster) Vaz Bogey Barnes ERod Beni Sale Devers JD Eovaldi Chavis DHern Dalbec Perez Verdugo Pivetta Munoz Arroyo Houck 11 Near Expendable: Walden Brasier Brewer Taylor Weber Arauz Mazza Plawecki Valdez Covey Grullon 11 Expendable: Pedey Chatham Hart Wilson Aybar Peraza Brice Springs Hall Stock Puello

True, but nobody from our 30-40 slots looking all that promising. (That's being generous.)

I doubt the 40th man on our roster will be someone we hate to DFA, so I think we can keep Pedey around, but if there is truly no hope of him playing in 2021, I don't think he'd mind being cut. We can offer him a job in the organization.

I'm disagreeing with your choice of sample period. My point was about players already on the Sox from 2015 to 2016, and how that was the major reason for the "turnaround" not adding Price and Kimbrel. What happened in 2017 and 2018 don't take away from that point. 6 players improved their fWAR by 3 or more, including HRam & Porcello. 7 by 2.6 or more. 2015 was the outlier. 2017, 2018 and 2019 was related to age decline and 2015 was a signal it was coming.

Wilson was not in red. I dump Wilson, after we sign an OF'er or two, but I suppose it could be Hart or Pedey's time to go- or Brewer. We might also trade someone, maybe even Wilson for an OF'er that does not need to be on the 40 man but is ML ready.

I pick Red When we sign a SP'er- bye bye Walden. When we sign 2 RP'ers- bye bye Stock and Chatham When we sign a CF'er- bye bye Wilson

Pretty much expected. The next 6 may be a little more difficult but not painful.

Wrong question, but 2015, easily.

Porcello, somewhat, HRam, no. HRam had many seasons better than 2016. (HRam's 2017 season was also better than 2015.) Porcello's ERA+ 93 2012 96 2013 113 2014 87 2015 142 2016 98 2017 103 2018 His fWAR: 2.3, 3.0, 2.9, 3.0, 1.7, 5.1 1.7 is about 1.3 from his previous 3 year norm. 5.1 is 2.1 from the norm. With HRam, 2015 was clearly the "outlier." fWAR after being over 7 in 2008 and 2009... 4.1 0.9 (half season) 2.9 4.9 (half season) 3.7 -1.2 (2015 in 105 gms) 3.0 (2016) -0.5 (2017) The point was that outlier seasons by players Ben brought in or handed over to DD caused the "turnaround" between 2015 and 2016 by more than adding Price and Kimbrel. Others like Betts, Leon, JBJ, Wright and Pedey also did much better. Only a handful of players declined slightly from 2025 to 2016.

I almost added Brewer's name to my list.

Good picks. I think they may keep Covey and Chatham and let Walden & Wilson or Puello go, desp[ite their lack of depth in the OF. (I think we'll add 2 OF'ers, later.)

The turn around from 2015 to 2016 (15 wins) was helped greatly by many players from Ben & Theo's teams jumping in value: 2015>2016 fWAR 4.8>8.3 Betts 1.9>5.3 JBJ 2.3>4.9 Pedey 4.6>4.9 Bogey 2.9> 4.5 Ortiz -1.2>3.0 HRam -0.8> 2.2 Leon 1.7> 5.1 Porcello -0.1>2.9 Wright Price 4.4 Kimbrel 1.2 Porcello + Wright's gains> Price + Kimbrel total