moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I posed a simple question: which farm was better. Yes, we called up Devers, Beni and Chavis from that crop. That was a one snap shot farm. Just those three called up are better than all the prospects acquired after Ben and called up combined, and that was 4 years ago! Answer how you wish, but that farm was exponentially better than this one. All Our Top Prospects Acquired after Ben (4 Years): Casas Dalbec Groome Ward Duran Houck Chatham Feltman Shawaryn A Flores All the Top Prospects Acquired by Ben (4 years): ERod (by trade) Devers Moncada Beni Espinoza Kopech L Allen Chavis D Hernandez Buttrey Johnson Guerra Basabe I Basabe II Travis Bautista Asuaje P Light Maddox Lakins These guys were worth enough to keep Devers, Beni & Chavis and also get (via trade) Sale, Pom, Thornburg, Eovaldi, Pearce, AReed, Kinsler and others. We couldn't get a pitcher like Sale by trading our entire, current top 10 prospects. It's not even close, but I guess that's just my opinion and a bunch or experts, too.
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A few were predicting a reset in 2020 or 2021 despite what happened in 2019. The 2019 season surprised me. I thought our "window" extended from 2016 to 2019 or 2020.
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There might be significant drop offs between a couple slots here and there or a bigger drop off between, say, 12 and 15 than 22 and 25. I'd say it's safe to say a 10 slot difference is significant, maybe even 7 or 8 in most cases.
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It does happen, but way more times than not, the WS champ is a top 3-4 contender.
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After you take 3 of the best guys out, you like one better? That's not an answer. It's like saying, if we trade Casas, Mata and Groome, I like the other better.
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Yes, I could be wrong on the "good team" part of my projection, but he will be a FT starter for somebody- all year long.
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They are not worthless, but they are based on the opinions of people who know the business. I'd rather have a top 10 ranked farm than a bottom 10 ranked farm. It means the chances you get some help from the farm are greater. Which crop of prospects do you think is better? Casas, Mata, Dalbec, Duran, Groome, Jimenez, Houck, Ward, Song, Chatham, Lugo, Decker, Flores or Moncada, Devers, Espi, Margot, Beni, Kopech, Guerra, Johnson, Travis, Marrero, Chavis, Basabe, Allen, Dubon, Marco
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He barely pitched this year, and spent a lot of time in the pen. Finishing with a 5.08 ERA in his last 6 games didn't help, but he was showing a return of velocity.
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GMs don't look at just previous seasons. You don't either, when it supports your point. GMs look back a few year and often hope a pitcher can repeat something like those years. Eovaldi: 2.2 in 2018 (not counting playoffs) 3.2 in 2015 3.3 in 2014
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That's not how managers decide who to play or not. They look at the total package. Plus, you do realize, JBJ hit pretty well for a much longer stretch than his slump. OPS .406 April .810 May-Oct. (.846 after May 20th- 109 games/38 games at .421) 2018 .738 first 17 games .286 next 21 games .793 last 106 games We're talking 38 and 21 game horrid slumps. We're talking 109 and 123 game nice stretches- not great but pretty good, especially with the defense and plus base running. How about 2017? .637 in 28 games .821 in 80 games .512 last 25 games (2 bad slumps but still a longer hot streak than the 2 slumps combined.) 2015-2016 combined .834 in 230 games total.
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I'm not saying it's smart. I'm just saying it happens. GMs trade proven vets for prospects. That's a gamble. They are betting on potential. They pay for potential. If Eovaldi passes the physical, more than one GM would pay him way more than $5M/1. Way more.
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Like all of a sudden GMs are going to learn from this one example? The Padres signed Richards to $15.5M/2 after he had just finished a 3 year stretch of less than 140 IP TOTAL! Not less than 140IP per season- it was less than 140 IP total! Yes, it's a fine example for GMs tolearn from, but did DD learn from it, when he signed Eovaldi to 4 years? GMs pay for potential all the time. They gamble. It ain't stopping over the Richards and Eovaldi examples. Someone will overpay for the hope a guy will be or get healthy. Last winter: Ryu $18M/1 (pitched less than 200 IP in previous 4 seasons combined) Anibal Sanchez $19M/2 (pitched 242 IP in 2 previous seasons) Richards $15.5M/2 (see other pots) Matt Harvey $11M/1 (under 345 IP in 3 years) Trevor Cahill $9M/1 (under 260 IP in 3 yrs) Derek Holland $7M/1 (414 IP and 4.79 ERA in 3 years) For God's sake, Tyson Ross got more than $5M (204 IP & 5.21 ERA in 3 years) Do I need to go back another year for more examples? This was just last winter alone.
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He will be the FT starting CF'er for a good team all 2020 long. Book it.
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While I do think the playoffs are a crap shoot in some respects, I still think being a top 3-4 contender greatly improves your odds of winning it all. Plus, is a playoff contender one who finishes 5-7 games behind the last WC slot but was withing 3-5 games behind with 3 weeks to go?
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That's not the point. You know some GM would offer more than that.
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Really? What for 1 year? His best year he pitched just 168.2 IP (2.61 ERA/1.04 WHIP). His only other decent season was the following year (2015) when he went 15-12 3.65/1.24 in 207 IP. He then did jack for 3 straight years- never going over 77 IP. Come on, Jacko. An "ace?" Yes, for those 2 short seasons, Richards was better than Eovaldi ever was, but that was way back in 2014 & 2015. I think the Richards-Eovaldi comp is a good one, since both have been hurt a lot the last 3 years.
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JBJ is still my favorite player, but I seriously doubt he's back next year, unless we non tender him, and he agrees to come back at a lower than arb cost. Porcello will cost too much to bring back to a team looking to reset. We can't afford either of them, especially, if as you said, we will be contenders in 2020, and we reset.
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100% guaranteed.
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Well, if he's as good as Boggs, he'd be worth it. If he's like Rice, who petered out after 33-34, he wouldn't be. OPS by Boggs & Rice at these ages Betts next contract: Boggs/Rice age 28 year 1 .939 (3rd best ever)/.755 age 29 year 2 1.049 (best ever)/.868 age 30 year 3 .965 (2nd best ever)/.911 age 31 year 4 .879/.791 age 32 year 5 .804/.836 age 33 year 6 .881/.874 age 34 year 7 .711/.766 age 35 year 8 .740/.736 age 36 year 9 .922/.621 age 37 year 10 .834/out of baseball
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We have a few aged prospects in the minors: age prospect rank on soxprospects.com 24 Dalbec 3 23 Duran 4 23 Houck 7 24 Chtaham 10 25 Shawaryn 22 23 Crawford 24 24 Bazardo 28 25 Lakins 30 25 Fitzgerald 33 23 J Diaz 38 23 Ockimey 40 -
Playoff contenders or legitimate ring contenders?
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I think the word is a little too extreme, but I'm okay with using the word. To me, decimated means totally stripped of any value. Keeping Devers, Beni, ERod and DHern, among others is not total. The definition includes "removing a large percentage of...", so maybe it is appropriate.
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Yes, he is. IMO, Betts is better than Boggs, too.
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Pedro?
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We can trade him and then re-sign him. Best of both worlds.
