moonslav59

Everybody does it or tries to do it- just not to this extreme. I'm not saying they should not be punishes severely, but the art of trying to stealing signs goes way back.

Keeping him until July will not hurt season ticket sales & NESN subscriptions. It also does Betts a favor by not attaching a comp pick when he becomes a FA. It allows us to see if we can possibly win it all in 2020 but still let us retool, if we don't look competitive. The hard choice will be, if we look kind of competitive by the deadline.

Yes, but he has to get hurt or have a bad year to not be able to sign a 3+ year deal for more.

Exactly.

He makes a lot less in 2021 and 2022.

I'm not saying I like the option, but it might be better than these two options... 1) Losing Betts after 2020 and getting only a comp pick. (The ickiest choice, unless we win a 2020 ring.) 2) Trading Betts and not re-signing him after 2020. 3) Not trading Betts, missing the playoffs in 2020, then re-signing him. 4) Not trading Betts, missing the playoffs in 2020, then not re-signing him.

The odds would be better, if we got something for Betts and then re-signed him. Either way, if we re-sign Betts after 2020, I doubt there will be much lingering issues with the fans, except for during 2020.

I think JD will opt out, unless he gets hurt or has an off year. I don't think Mookie's situation plays into his choice much at all.

No, but winning in 2021 or 2022 would help them get over it.

Nobody cared who these guys were. Some felt we could have gotten more for AGon, despite us dumping CC. Despite trading one of our best players, we won the ring the very next year and all was forgotten. I'm not asking us to forget Betts- I'm hoping we re-sign him and win a ring in 2021 or 2022. Trading him (then getting him back) first might make that more likely.

This was about the Price opt out way back when.

Yes, and that's when everyone jumped on the "hope he opts out" bandwagon despite the odds being close to zero.

Nobody loved Webster and de la Rosa either, but they sure loved the parade in 2013. (Was anyone pining for AGon & Beckett?)

I get that, but giving Betts a more than fair offer after 2020 should help most Sox fans see that we tried. Re-setting in 2020 increases our odds of getting Betts back in 2021. Plus, we'll get something for him and maybe sign someone with the money saved that will still be helping us in 2021 and beyond.

Bloom needs to get off his assssss!

Lets just throw in Betts.

Yes, it was an overstatement. 700's point was this: if he opts out, it will be because he is pitching great, and we'd lose by losing a great pitcher, which makes sense, but I still hoped he'd opt out even if he had stayed healthy and pitched great due to his age and liklihood of decline and our ability to use his $30M wisely.

The Astros wanted Eovaldi last winter. He was injury prone then, too.

Sounds like a great deal for us! (OK, throw in Sam Travis! LOL)

He also hits for power. But, all that matters is speed ages poorly.

This is very true. Plus, people talk of how horrible it is to have such a large percentage of your budget tied to one or two (or 3,4,5) players. Let's look back at our championship seasons: 2004: $130M 40 man budget 22.5 Manny 17.5 Pedro 12.0 Schilling 11.5 Nomar Top 2: 31% (Theo's first ring) Top 4: 48.9% 2007: $155M 17.0 Manny 14.0 JD Drew 13.3 Ortiz 13.0 Schilling 11.0 VTek 9.0 Lowell 8.2 Lugo Top 2: 20% (Theo's 2nd ring) Top 5: 44% 2013: $176M 16.0 Lackey 14.5 Ortiz 13.3 Dempster 13.0 Vic 11.6 Lester 10.2 Pedey 9.5 Drew 9.0 Ellsbury Top 2: 17.3% (Ben's year) Top 5: 38.9% 2018: $239M 30.0 Price 23.8 JD 22.8 HRam 21.1Porcello 16.1 Pedey 13.0 Kimbrel 12.5 Sale 10.5 Betts Top 2: 22.9% (DD's year) Top 4: 41% Hypothetical 2021: $240M 33.0 Betts 30.0 Price (if not traded) 20.0 Bogey 19.4 JD (if not opted out) 17.0 Eovaldi (if not traded) 12.1 Pedey (last year) Top 2: 26% (Less than Theo's first ring year and not that far from others, and this assumes we don't trade Price by then.) Top 4 (assuming JD opts out): 42% (lower than 2004 & close to other years.)

There are a lot of players who performed very well after age 30 and even 32 or 33, and I'm not talking about the steroid group. Dewey Evans is one- he actually did better as he aged, and he barely lost anything on defense. Here's a list of the best players age 30-37 just from 2000 to 2019 (2500+ PAs)- notice how many near the top were little guys: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=2500&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2000&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=30,37&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate= WAR from age 30-37 42.4 Edmonds 41.0 Beltre 38.2 C Jones 37.0 I Suzuki 35.9 B Giles 34.5 ARod 33.5 Jeter 32.0 Zobrist 31.1 J Giambi 31.0 Thome 30.1 Kent 20 players from 24.1 to 29.9, including Cano, J Damon & M Cameron 19 players from 20.0 to 24.0, including Kinsler & J Valentin (P Polanco & B Gardner almost made the list.) Betts has better numbers than most of these guys at age 27. Sure,many players didn't even last to age 37, but how many players, with numbers like Betts, went on to be total busts after age 30? I'm sure there are many, like Pujols, but there are many that did not, too.

I remember some posters saying we'd be screwed if he opted out.

You just said players decline at age 30 (not true for many of the better players), so how is he "post prime" at age 27?

You have to factor in what he does with the money saved by trading Betts. That, in a sense, is part of the trade. I think most Sox fans would understand that- just like they did when we traded AGon, although that involved dumping the much fan-hated CC. We won a ring in 2013, clearly as a result of the money saved on that deal and how Ben spent it wisely. Sure, we'll likely lose some fans by trading Betts, but if we present the trade in the right way, by announcing we will go all out to re-sign him in 2021, then maybe it won't have the negative impact many seem to think it might have. Plus, if Bloom spends Betts's money wisely, maybe we'll end up going farther than many fans expect, and the "lost" fans will come back quickly. As you know, I'm all for bringing Betts back, and it seems like I'm in a minority on this site, so I guess that means people are okay with losing fans from 2021-2030 but not 2020 alone.